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1st Quarter 2024 Economic And Market Outlook: Potential Increased Volatility, Threats To Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

Nerd's Eye View

With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. Meanwhile, a smorgasbord of potential risks threatens economic growth's "soft landing" narrative.

Economics 171
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March 2024 State Coincident Indexes Ease

The Big Picture

A quick note on the state of the economy in light of some recent data. Q1 2024 Gross Domestic Product expanded at a disappointing 1.6% — note this is seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate. economic strength.” That lagged economists’ consensus of 2.4%. However, it’s not quite all it appears.

Economy 210
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What Stagflation?

The Big Picture

The Misery Index — the combination of Inflation and unemployment — failed as a bearish criticism of the economy. If you have a bearish mindset , and seek confirmation of that perspective, then the next economic critique after the Misery Index you try on for size is “Stagflation.”

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Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2024.

Economy 114
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Exploring Economic Indicators: April 2024 Employment

Advisor Perspectives

Among all economic indicators, some of the most closely watched are those surrounding the labor market. They provide insight into the health of the economy. But they also impact individuals’ lives and play a central role in government policy decisions.

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Wednesday links: looking inward

Abnormal Returns

Markets A look back at Q1 2024 asset class returns. novelinvestor.com) Growth and value performance flip-flopped in March 2024. theringer.com) Economy How well does consumer sentiment correlate with the real economy? bonddad.blogspot.com) Part-time is not a negative for the economy if it isn't for economic reasons.

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Tuesday links: the bond market drawdown

Abnormal Returns

nytimes.com) Economy Case-Shiller showed a 4.8% calculatedriskblog.com) What if the economy in 2024 was just 'normal'? bloomberg.com) Ten economic questions for 2024 including 'How much will wages increase in 2024?' (wsj.com) Japan has a trucking problem. axios.com) Why did macroeconomists get 2023 so wrong?

Marketing 249