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The “Art” of Market Timing

The Big Picture

When you get it wrong, it crushes your retirement plans. My own track record at making big calls is pretty damned good, but none of our clients wants me slinging around their retirement monies based on my gut instinct. But when they get market timing wrong, they lose subscribers. I sure as hell don’t want to either.

Marketing 293
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10 Tuesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. If you’re depending on income to fund your retirement, 5% rates are a blessing. 2020 Pandemic Panic ?!? (

Insurance 130
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Join The Bond Market Resistance!

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

The article devoted a good amount of space to bond market math, focusing on the pain of owning the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) and bond funds in general. There is nothing that says TLT must get back to the $171 dollars it traded at in 2020.

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Worried about your future Social Security benefits? Fleshing out current concerns and common myths.

Yardley Wealth Management

Social Security Retirement Planning . By Michael Garry Yardley Wealth Management October 26, 2020. Around 65 million Americans will receive more than $1 trillion in benefits during 2020, according to the Social Security Administration (SSA). Fleshing out current concerns and common myths.

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Did Barron's Just Undercut Every Article It Has Ever Published?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

In the case of real estate a 2.29% weighting and for "private equity" companies it's about 17 basis points (looked at XLF holdings and then did a little math), that's just not going to move the needle. You may agree with Jack about not needing those things, that's valid, my point is that owning an index fund isn't a proxy for them.

Math 72
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Exchange Traded.Income?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

A quick excerpt from a post a couple of weeks ago about retirement misconceptions. I would much rather withdraw 10% or more per year from my retirement accounts and do it without taking any principal. Part of the math that determines options premiums is the risk free rate of return from T-bills.

Math 59
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Looking At The Smartest ETF In The Room

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

There's other math about outperformance but also the observation that momentum is prone to crashes. You don't see that before the 2020 Pandemic Crash though. The current event, rolling over slowly is more typical of bear market behavior as opposed to the crash in 2020. Here's the last year.

Math 93