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Bad News is Good News?

Investing Caffeine

Remember that global pandemic back in 2020 called COVID-19 that killed over 350,000 people in the U.S.? What did the stock market actually do in 2020? Bad economic news turned out to be good news for stocks. That same year, the unemployment rate reached a sky-high level of 14.9% (vs. GDP was advancing at a reasonable +1.9%

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Equity markets at a crossroads – What is the way forward?

Truemind Capital

The quantum of money printing jumped massively after Corona-led economic shutdowns. The liquidity support since 2008 and massive stimulus post March 2020 has inflated all the asset prices be it equity, debt, or real estate. US Fed increased its balance sheet size from ~$4-4.5 trillion to ~$8-8.5 Source: ICICI MF.

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Myth-Busting with Momentum: How to Pursue the Premium

ClearMoney

As with many things in life, the truth is somewhere between the extremes: While both simulated and real-world data suggest momentum may not be suitable as a driver of long-term asset allocations, we believe momentum considerations can be integrated in a cost-effective way to help inform daily portfolio management decisions.

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Insane Gain After Fed & Ukraine Pain

Investing Caffeine

As I pointed out last month, we are coming off a heroic advance over the last three years (2019/2020/2021) with the S&P 500 soaring +90%. The hangover from COVID has created significant supply chain disruptions and widespread economic shortages. Source: Trading Economics. Source: Trading Economics.

Economy 59
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The time has finally come

Truemind Capital

In good times i.e. when the market valuations are usually very high, everyone agrees to the logic of buying low and selling high. Not understanding the role & importance of tactical asset allocation (overweight debt in euphoric times and overweight equity in a time of acute pessimism) in creating superior returns over the long term.

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March Madness: Final Four Investing Bracket 2024

Dear Mr. Market

We still like Energy this year and that is especially so with it being one of the most beaten down economic sectors from 2023. EOG is poised to breakout and trades at bargain valuation of about nine times earnings (relative to the S&P at 23 times earnings and a touch under the overall energy sector of 12 times earnings).

Investing 105
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From Rocket Ship to Roller Coaster

Investing Caffeine

T he stock market has been like a rocket ship over the last three years 2019/2020/2021, advancing +90% as measured by the S&P 500 index, and +136% for the NASDAQ. Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). More specifically, the S&P 500 fell -5% for the month and the NASDAQ -9%. interest rates.

Math 52