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Transcript: Jonathan Clements

The Big Picture

But the numbers you can’t argue with, I mean, we all know that the brutal math of investing before costs investors collectively will earn the market return after costs. 00:29:38 [Speaker Changed] So, humble Dollar was launched right at the end of 2016. They will earn that market return less, whatever they’re paying.

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2024 Forecasting Follies

The Better Letter

For example, Michael Moore, famous for being one of the few people who predicted Donald Trump’s election win in 2016, confidently declared that Mr. Trump would not win again in 2024 ( Do The Math: Trump Is Toast ). He expected Donald Trump's election in 2016 to cause permanent market doom. Happy Retirement, Paul!

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Transcript: Karin Risi, Vanguard’s Chief of Strategy & Product

The Big Picture

My colleague Eric Unis wrote a column called the Vanguard Effect way back in 2016. 00:16:36 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I’m, I’m not gonna check your math on that, but I’ll, I’ll buy Eric saying your, your estimate there on what we’ve saved investors over time. That was almost 10 years ago.

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The “Art” of Market Timing

The Big Picture

Previously : The Timing Mistake: Thoughts & Pushback (August 26, 2020) Market Timing for Fun & Profit (August 28, 2020) The Art of Calling a Market Top (October 4, 2017) DOs and DONTs of Market Crashes (January 16, 2016) The Truth About Market Timing (March 13, 2013) Timing the Market? By Jeff Sommer New York Times, Nov.

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

You need to understand how math, statistics and probabilities work. Britons who want to rejoin EU at highest levels since 2016, survey finds Source: Guardian Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here. ~~~ To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

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The Greatest Missed Opportunity of Our Lifetimes

The Big Picture

Treasury Bond (May 19, 2016) Last Call for 50-Year Treasury Bonds (March 16, 2017) Deficit Spending Should Be Counter-Cyclical Not Pro-Cyclical (August 28, 2017) Can We Please Have an Honest Debate About Tax Policy? This will be looked at as the greatest missed opportunity of our lifetimes.

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The Skew

The Irrelevant Investor

Hendrik Bessembinder An excellent piece from Bloomberg came out over the weekend, The Math Behind Futility , which looks beyond the usual explanations as to why the majority of professional stock pickers fail to keep up with an index. In 2016, the average S&P 500 stock returned 1.5 down to 2.9%.

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