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MiB: Colin Camerer on Neuroeconomics

The Big Picture

Camerer won the MacArthur Fellow (Genius award) in 2013. He is the portfolio manager of the Return Stacked ETF Suite, manging 800 million in ETF assets. He is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and holds fellowship at the Econometric Society and the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory.

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FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Increased in Q1 2024

Calculated Risk

Asset Quality Metrics Remained Generally Favorable With the Exception of Material Deterioration in Credit Card and Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Portfolios: Loans that were 90 days or more past due or in nonaccrual status increased to 0.91 The quarterly increase was led by commercial and industrial loans and non-owner-occupied CRE loans.

Numbers 312
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Where is This Rally Going?

The Big Picture

The Pandemic crash and rally was a 34% reset and a continuation of the bull that formally began in March 2013. Those of you looking for income might consider putting fresh money to work building a bespoke muni portfolio, or buying the appropriate muni fund for your circumstances. ( Depending on the specifics a 4.5-5%

Taxes 288
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Build a Resilient Investment Strategy With The All Weather Portfolio

Validea

Investors looking for a diversified portfolio that performs well in all market conditions have long been drawn to the All Weather Portfolio, a strategy pioneered by Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates. The portfolio allocates across U.S. equities, gold, commodities, and long-duration and intermediate-term Treasury bonds.

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Monthly NFPs Are Rounding Errors

The Big Picture

June 3rd, 2011) THE MOST IMPORTANT EVER NFP blah blah blah (June 7th, 2013) “What’s Your NFP Number?” – but most months, the specific number is more or less a rounding error. This is not a popular opinion.

Numbers 264
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The Fed on "Possible Macroeconomic Effects of a Temporary Federal Debt Default"

Calculated Risk

From Federal Reserve Staff in 2013 on the debt ceiling debate: Possible Macroeconomic Effects of a Temporary Federal Debt Default. This is relevant today. Excerpts: Key considerations in evaluating the consequences of a debt default • Such an event would be unprecedented.

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How Many Bear Markets Have You Lived Through?

The Big Picture

2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. My portfolio was tiny; I had no 401k, and my wife’s 403(b), with less than a decade’s worth of contributions, was barely 5-figures.

Marketing 336