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The Frenzy in the Stock Market

Truemind Capital

Thinking about all this, I felt I had read about this and observed it in 2007. However, I would insist on following an asset allocation plan with discipline, which is unaffected by the emotions of greed and fear. Asset allocation should follow probabilities of future outcomes along with risk profile.

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Trend Following Says Commodities…But Nothing Else!

Alpha Architect

The analysis above highlights that we are in a rare regime when commodities are the only long asset with a positive trend. But we do know that post-1973 we entered a world where, for several decades (at least up to around 2007), both bonds and commodities were an important component of a diversified portfolio. Will this happen again?

Portfolio 103
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Wait, Maybe We Can Mimic Harvard

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Here's the latest about Harvard from Bloomberg that included this chart of the asset allocation. It's not that someone could not copy the asset class exposure, just that the return streams would not look the same and often, various forms of sophistication replication does not really work in fund form. Black is 2023.

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Weekend Reading – Is Inflation Dead?

Discipline Funds

In other words, if you’re 65 in 2007 and 100% invested in stocks and then 2008 happens then you end up going back to work until you’re at least 70. And the only way that disaster happens is if your financial planner is making irrational projections about asset returns and your asset allocation.

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Bernstein on Bulletproof

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Having that much in asset classes that are intended to not look like equities should mean that the long term result won't look anything like the stock market. A 25% allocation to equities for someone who needs equity market growth for their plan to work won't get it done. Then it more than cut in half but is now at 4400.

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Hold Cash or Invest? History Shows Cash Isn’t King for Long

Darrow Wealth Management

The federal funds rate hasn’t been this high since 2007 when it peaked at 5.25%. So when the federal funds rate goes up, it can have an outsized impact on shorter term interest rates on assets like Treasury bills (T-bills). This has been the faster pace of rate hikes since the 1980-1981 cycle.

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How to prepare your portfolio for the uncertain future?

Truemind Capital

The chart below illustrates that the smart money enters when valuations are low and the majority of the investors aren’t looking at that asset class or security. The important takeaway is that there should be an allocation plan prepared for asset class volatility and it shouldn’t be just an ad-hoc emotional buying or selling.