James Hendries

MARCH 13, 2023

However, the pressure on valuations from higher interest rates, which have made bonds attractive alternatives, led to the Committee’s recent decision to reduce the size of the overweight from 5 points to 3. But valuations strongly favor value over growth. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal.

Assets 52

Assets Marketing Marketing Asset Allocation 52

James Hendries

JANUARY 13, 2023

economy to avoid recession, and support above-average valuations. The relationship between inflation and stock valuations is a strong one, as shown in Figure 2 , which meant the market could no longer support price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios over 20 (the same goes for the relationship between interest rates and stock valuations).

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Asset Allocation 52

James Hendries

JULY 3, 2023

Later on, funding becomes essential, either via private equity, venture capital, or a direct relationship with investment banks, and even the Bank of Mom and Dad. A Fed pause is likely coming soon, if it’s not already here, as inflation continues to ease, supporting the case for staying fully invested. We think core bond sectors (U.S.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Banking Valuation 52

James Hendries

JUNE 26, 2023

Investment Outlook Stocks have had a strong rally over the past eight months to establish a new bull market. With the broad market overbought in the short-term from a technical analysis perspective and valuations elevated, stocks may be due for a pause. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Asset Allocation Valuation 52

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors and they do not take into account the particular needs, investment objectives, tax and financial condition of any specific person. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Bond yields are subject to change.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Taxes Government Investment Advisor 52

James Hendries

OCTOBER 7, 2022

There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors and they do not take into account the particular needs, investment objectives, tax and financial condition of any specific person. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Bond yields are subject to change.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Taxes Investment Advisor Asset Allocation 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 15, 2022

There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors and they do not take into account the particular needs, investment objectives, tax and financial condition of any specific person. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Bond yields are subject to change.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Asset Allocation Taxes Investment Advisor 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 8, 2022

There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors and they do not take into account the particular needs, investment objectives, tax and financial condition of any specific person. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Bond yields are subject to change.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Taxes Investment Advisor Asset Allocation 52

James Hendries

OCTOBER 18, 2022

But overall, we would expect modest estimate cuts to be received positively by markets, supported by lower valuations and depressed investor sentiment. rather than 4%) could prop up valuations, stocks will likely take their cues from earnings in the near term. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economics 52

James Hendries

JUNE 20, 2023

Summary and Investment Outlook Periods of economic regime shifts are difficult for policymakers to manage. Treasuries, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and short-maturity investment grade corporates) are currently more attractive than plus sectors (high-yield bonds and non-U.S. We think core bond sectors (U.S.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Communication 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 23, 2022

At this rate, home sales will likely continue to slow and residential investment could turn out to be a drag on Q3 economic growth. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. All index data from FactSet.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Sales Economy 98

James Hendries

JULY 13, 2022

There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors and they do not take into account the particular needs, investment objectives, tax and financial condition of any specific person. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal. Bond yields are subject to change.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Asset Allocation Taxes Investment Advisor 52

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

Growth stocks typically trade at higher valuations on the premise that an investor is buying a company now that will grow to be a much larger company, producing higher levels of cash and profit in the future. Increasing the discount rate, which lowers the present value of future cash flows, and company valuations.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Asset Allocation Valuation 52

James Hendries

MARCH 6, 2023

Higher interest rates are challenging stock valuations and perhaps pushing the gains further out in 2023, but we still see solid potential for double-digit returns for stocks this year. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 30, 2022

In our Midyear Outlook 2022: Navigating Turbulence , released back in mid-July, we wrote that it was tough to see the bull case through the cloud cover, but that an improved macroeconomic environment may set the stage for higher valuations, further earnings growth, and solid gains for stocks over the rest of the year.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economics 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 15, 2022

Stock valuations are higher but bond yields are still low enough to support valuations with the 10-year Treasury yield well under 3% despite the big jobs number. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 52

James Hendries

JANUARY 31, 2023

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. All investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Insurance 52

James Hendries

OCTOBER 25, 2022

As more metrics start blinking red, sticking to long-term investing plans with the guidance from a financial professional is becoming more and more important. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economics Economy 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 13, 2022

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 52

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 22, 2022

Marc Zabicki , CFA , Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial . Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. All index data from Bloomberg.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Asset Allocation 52

James Hendries

JANUARY 26, 2023

We believe China-heavy emerging market equities are more of a trade than a long-term investment at this point. Should the Fed pause after a March interest rate hike, the stage may be set for a nice stock market rebound on the back of falling inflation, reasonable valuations, and stable interest rates.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

James Hendries

JANUARY 20, 2023

Using the S&P 500 as the investible universe, a hypothetical long-only portfolio is constructed of the top quintile (top 20 percent) of stocks’ estimate revisions composite score. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 27, 2022

That said, for those income-oriented investors who mostly or exclusively hold bonds and don’t need fixed income to diversify stock holdings, we think there are ample opportunities in shorter maturity Treasury and investment-grade corporate securities. Core plus bond funds have more latitude to invest in out-of-benchmark (i.e.,

Asset Allocation 52

Asset Allocation Marketing Marketing Assets 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 3, 2022

That doesn’t take away from the fact that higher inflation is causing consumer spending to slow, while higher interest rates are weighing heavily on business investment. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 98

James Hendries

OCTOBER 11, 2022

operate Liability Driven Investment (LDI) programs whereby they use derivatives to gain leveraged exposure to, supposedly safe, gilts. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. This in turn almost caused a meltdown in the U.K

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Banking Government 52

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Manufacturing Economy 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

in September (source: Bespoke Investment Group). Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. All index data from FactSet.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Insurance 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 15, 2022

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 52

James Hendries

OCTOBER 4, 2022

Market reforms, trade with the West, and allowing foreign investment led to an economic boom that was characterized by the World Bank as “the fastest sustained expansion by a major economy in history.” Similarly, Chinese entities, especially real-estate companies, invested throughout the U.S. At the same time, U.S. and Europe.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 20, 2022

What was once thought of as a conservative investment has turned out to be anything but conservative this year. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

James Hendries

DECEMBER 4, 2022

Retailer valuations have also taken a hit, as the forward (next 12 months) P/E multiple has contracted ~20% year to date, from ~27x to ~22x currently. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. All index data from Bloomberg.

Retail 52

Retail Marketing Marketing Sales 52

James Hendries

JULY 6, 2022

While we acknowledge that a V-shaped recovery is probably not in the cards and prior valuation targets no longer appear achievable, we remain constructive on equities for the second half, but not complacent. Remember stock valuations are inversely correlated to inflation and interest rates. So a P/E over 20 is probably too rich.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economy 52

James Hendries

JULY 21, 2022

Lower inflation tends to bring higher valuations (Fig.1). The market clearly does not expect 8 – 9% inflation to persist based on current stock valuations, but whether inflation eventually settles at 3% or 4% will go a long way toward determining how much higher stock valuations can go from current levels. If the U.S.

Management 52

Management Marketing Marketing Valuation 52

James Hendries

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

The equity market ended the year roughly flat so investors who were able to invest after that large drawdown were rewarded. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. All index data from FactSet.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Government Economy 52

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Government Banking 52