Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2025

We expect a 15k decline in federal government payrolls and a slower but still positive 15k increase in state and local payrolls. Government job growth is expected to come in at 10k due to the federal hiring freeze/DOGE. It still seems early for the government (DOGE) layoffs and tariff related layoffs to impact the employment report.

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing Government Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 23, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November The Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.50% as of November 30, 2024. According to MBAs estimate, 250,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.

Portfolio 147

Portfolio Government Planning Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 0.70% in November The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained flat relative to the prior month at 0.70% as of November 30, 2022. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

Government 344

Government Portfolio Planning Numbers 344

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 24, 2022

In February 2023, the payroll numbers will be revised up to reflect the final estimate. The number is then "wedged back" to the previous revision (March 2021). This preliminary estimate showed 571,000 more private sector jobs, and 109,000 fewer government jobs (as of March 2022) than originally estimated.

Taxes 359

Taxes Numbers Manufacturing Insurance 359

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 30, 2025

bonddad.blogspot.com) Q1 numbers don't really capture the impact of tariffs. notboring.co) In praise of slack in government, business and life. (wsj.com) A majority of Americans say they Vietnam War was a mistake. axios.com) Economy Q1 2025 GDP shrank 0.3%. calculatedriskblog.com) Real consumption and investment were positive in Q1.

Startup 157

Startup Financial Advisor Media Government 157

Wealth Management

NOVEMBER 3, 2022

Property Tax Administration's assessment of the market value of the nation’s highest profile government buildings, such as the White House. The Empire State Building is among a number of office buildings that have installed beehives recently as part of an effort to bring back tenants, reports Commercial Observer.

Government 274

Government Taxes Numbers Marketing 274

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government. However, as of August 2022, the total number of jobs had returned and are now 1.044 million above pre-pandemic levels. From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in November , and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7

Transportation 363

Transportation Retail Government Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 30, 2024

The number of job openings (black) were down 20% year-over-year. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. Jobs openings decreased in September to 7.44 million from 7.86

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Sales Government Banking 162

Calculated Risk

MARCH 20, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.60% in February The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 4 basis points from 0.64% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.60% as of February 28, 2023.

Portfolio 303

Portfolio Government Planning Banking 303

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 25, 2024

morningstar.com) The Texas Capital Government Money Market ETF ($MMKT) has launched. (fa-mag.com) sherwood.news) The number of existing homes for sales keeps rising. (axios.com) ETFs Low vol ETFs have plodded along. fa-mag.com) A lot of active ETFs have launched, not many will survive.

Math 262

Math Financial Advising Media Government 262

Calculated Risk

JUNE 9, 2025

Mortgage rates have ticked higher in the wake of recent tariff and government spending announcements, which increased inflationary concerns and decreased the number of Fed rate cuts expected by the market in 2025. The largest drops from the peak in 2022 have been in Austin (-19.2%), Cape Coral (-12.1%), North Port, Fla.

Sales 147

Sales Government Numbers Marketing 147

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 14, 2024

vox.com) Threats of violence against elected officials and government officials are on the rise. washingtonpost.com) The number of American centenarians is set to quadruple. (gothamgal.com) 15 states have rejected a new, federally funded summer program to give food assistance to hungry children.

Financial Advising 283

Financial Advising Engineering Food Economics 283

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

But after this this war period, there was inflation stimulated by government spending. So what were the numbers like after World War 1 and after World War 2? So what were the numbers like after World War 1 and after World War 2? It’s government spending period. Barry Ritholtz : More than a rally. And all the rest.

Marketing 317

Marketing Marketing Government Numbers 317

MarketWatch

JANUARY 30, 2023

government may have awarded roughly $5.4 billion in COVID-19 aid to small businesses with potentially ineligible Social Security numbers, said a Washington Post report on Monday citing a new estimate from the Pandemic Response Accountability Committee, or PRAC.

Numbers 98

Numbers Government Accounting Planning 98

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 31, 2023

bloomberg.com) Policy More of government should work like Operation Warp Speed. marginalrevolution.com) Global Home ownership is out of reach for an increasing number of Australians. (avc.com) Health care In a study, private equity-owned hospitals have higher rates of serious medical complications.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Medical Economy Economics 279

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 13, 2023

riabiz.com) The number of CFPs grew some 5% in 2022. (fa-mag.com) fa-mag.com) How to advise clients in the government Thrift Savings Plan. (citywire.com) Social Security helps prevent people from being very old and very poor. forbes.com) A ten-point Medicare primer. tonyisola.com) Advisers RIAs continue to take share of IRA assets.

Clients 245

Clients Retirement Financial Services Taxes 245

Nerd's Eye View

AUGUST 4, 2023

government's creditworthiness from an AAA rating to AA+. Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that credit ratings agency Fitch on Tuesday downgraded its assessment of the U.S.

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Retirement Planning Compliance Retirement 246

Calculated Risk

JULY 27, 2024

The number of job openings (yellow) were down 13% year-over-year and Quits were down 14% year-over-year. -- Wednesday, July 31st -- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). million from 7.92

Manufacturing 295

Manufacturing Sales Government Numbers 295

Calculated Risk

JUNE 29, 2024

The number of job openings (yellow) were down 19% year-over-year and quits were down 3% year-over-year. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. million from 8.36

Sales 286

Sales Manufacturing Banking Government 286

Nerd's Eye View

NOVEMBER 15, 2023

government designed a number of small business relief packages to incentivize companies to keep workers on their payrolls. To stave off a wave of business closures and a subsequent surge in unemployment, the U.S.

Clients 246

Clients Taxes Government Startup 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 21, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.34% in September The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.34% as of September 30, 2024. Overall government loan performance reached a new low for the year in September.

Government 162

Government Portfolio Planning Numbers 162

Nerd's Eye View

AUGUST 2, 2023

The Federal government and some state governments provide tax breaks to help defray "reasonable and necessary" adoption costs.

Taxes 246

Taxes Planning Financial Advisor Strategic Planning 246

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. And even though U.S.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

oXYGen Financial

MARCH 9, 2025

[CDATA[ While it appears that every day Americans may be DOGE-ing more waste, fraud, and abuse in the federal Governments, unfortunately America is on an unsustainable financial path and the numbers don't lie. Both parties are complicit, but it is the left's relentless push for government expansion, social programs, ]]

Government 59

Government Numbers 59

Calculated Risk

JULY 22, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.23% in June The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.23% as of June 30, 2024. According to MBA’s estimate, 115,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.

Numbers 162

Numbers Portfolio Government Planning 162

Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

Notably, while the rule will create an additional compliance burden, the due diligence advisers offering comprehensive planning services (as well as their investment custodians) are likely already conducting on their clients to create an effective financial plan could be a 'defense mechanism' for these firms against criminals looking to take advantage (..)

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Tax Planning Compliance Financial Advice 246

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 30, 2023

Special Note on Government Shutdown : If the Republicans shut down the government again, then some economic releases will be delayed. The number of job openings (yellow) were down 22% year-over-year. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The impacted releases are highlighted in RED. million from 9.17

Government 189

Government Sales Manufacturing Numbers 189

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2023

Alternative measures of employment growth indicate another month of robust job growth on average, government hiring likely remained strong, and layoffs remain low. ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM services are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires). last month.

Manufacturing 182

Manufacturing Numbers Government 182

Nerd's Eye View

JUNE 17, 2024

To create an effective (and compliant) Google review strategy , a starting point for advisers is to update their Form ADV to reflect the use of testimonials and their Policies & Procedures to govern their approach to collecting, approving, and sharing testimonials. Read More.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Compliance Advertising Marketing 246

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The state of the economy on Election Day, explained in 6 numbers : Rising prices have weighed heavily on the minds of voters who will soon determine the outcome of elections across the country. ( Are TIPS a Bargain? They are, but with an asterisk. Barron’s ). •

Nonprofit 278

Nonprofit Asset Allocation Economy Economics 278

Calculated Risk

APRIL 27, 2024

This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The number of job openings (black) were down 11% year-over-year in February. . -- Wednesday, May 1st -- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. 8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for April.

Manufacturing 292

Manufacturing Sales Government Numbers 292

A Wealth of Common Sense

MARCH 15, 2024

Economists and market observers care about the government reported data — CPI, core PCE, ex-shelter, whatever your preferred method is. Gas prices are spelled out on huge signs with big numbers. Everyday Americans only care about two price points — gas and grocery store prices. Why is this the case?

Government 144

Government Numbers Marketing Marketing 144

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 28, 2023

This report is for private payrolls only (no government). However, as of August 2022, the total number of jobs had returned and are now 1.24 . -- Wednesday, February 1st -- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. The consensus is for a 0.1% up from 49.6

Manufacturing 263

Manufacturing Sales Government Numbers 263

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 20, 2023

First, a note on the pandemic from Fannie: "In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, a number of legislative and executive actions were taken by the federal government and state and local governments to assist affected borrowers and renters and to slow the spread of the pandemic , including actions that applied to the loans we guarantee.

Government 130

Government Numbers 130

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 31, 2024

The number of job openings (black) were down 10% year-over-year and Quits were down 12% year-over-year. The number of job openings (black) were down 10% year-over-year and Quits were down 12% year-over-year. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). Jobs openings decreased in June to 8.18 million from 8.23

Manufacturing 189

Manufacturing Sales Government Banking 189

The Big Picture

MAY 9, 2024

I doubt he’s run the real numbers of being invested in the stock market tax deferred with an additional company match. While the government debates whether or not to ban TikTok, investors should consider making some changes on various social media themselves. why didn’t I think of that?)

Media 336

Media Taxes Math Investments 336

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2023

Barron’s ) • Why It’s So Hard for China to Shake the ‘Uninvestable’ Tag : In 2021, Goldman Sachs said the word was starting to feature in a number of client conversations about the country’s stocks. Maybe they should try turning the whole thing on and off. Bloomberg ) see also How Much is the Rule of Law Worth to Markets?

Retirement Planning 282

Retirement Planning Transportation Valuation Assets 282