Mon.May 15, 2023

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Housing May 15th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.2% Week-over-week

Calculated Risk

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.2% week-over-week. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of May 12th, inventory was at 420 thousand (7-day average), compared to 420 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is down 14.3%. And inventory is up 3.7% from the seasonal bottom four weeks ago.

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“No matter how you cut it, you’ve got to own Cisco” (2000)

The Big Picture

One of the core philosophical beliefs I hold dear is that the future is inherently unknown and unknowable. This tends to be true for the vast majority of people almost all of the time. The world is full of endless, random, often-invisible factors that greatly impact outcomes. Our own psychology works against our understanding this: Our hindsight bias allows us to see these unknowable results with perfect after-the-fact clarity; that fools us into believing our prior expectations turned out to be

Marketing 333
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NY Fed Q1 Report: Household Debt Increases, Mortgage Loan Growth Slows

Calculated Risk

From the NY Fed: Total Household Debt Reaches $17.05 trillion in Q1 2023; Mortgage Loan Growth Slows The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The Report shows an increase in total household debt in the first quarter of 2023, increasing by $148 billion (0.9%) to $17.05 trillion.

Retail 335
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Technology Trends with Molly Weiss

Wealth Management

AI's certainly a hot topic, but Envestnet is focused less on ChatGPT and more on how data insights can help advisors run their businesses, says Envestnet's chief product officer.

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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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Why ChatGPT Is No Threat To Real Advisors

Nerd's Eye View

The financial advisory industry has faced many purported technological ‘threats’ over the past several decades. From the introduction of computers to the rise of the internet to the emergence of ‘robo-advisors’, there has been no shortage of innovations that would allegedly reduce the need for consumers to work with (human) financial advisors.

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Celebrity Estates: Kylie Jenner and Succession Planning for Business Owners

Wealth Management

The majority of Kylie Jenner's wealth comes from the sale of 51% of her cosmetics company for $600 million.

Planning 264

More Trending

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10 Must Reads for Real Estate Investors (May 15, 2023)

Wealth Management

Many companies have turned to hot desking as they reduce office space, but many employees hate it, according to report from The Wall Street Journal. Vornado Realty may be on the brink of defaulting on $2.6 billion in loans, according to The Real Deal. These are among the must reads from around the real estate investment world to kick off the week.

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MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.51% in April"

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.51% in April The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 4 basis points from 0.55% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.51% as of April 30, 2023. According to MBA’s estimate, 255,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.

Portfolio 204
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ChatGPT, Amazon, TikTok Are Coming for RPAs

Wealth Management

401(k) advisors and providers have yet to realize their real competition for plan participants.

Planning 263
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3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in April

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in April A brief excerpt: This is the third look at local markets in April. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I update these tables throughout the month as data is released. Closed sales in April were mostly for contracts signed in February and March.

Marketing 162
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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Are Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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Envestnet Doubling Down on the Convergence of Wealth, Retirement at Work

Wealth Management

Envestnet co-founder and CEO Bill Crager describes how the company is investing heavily to assist advisors deal with retirement from all sides.

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Tuesday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey

Calculated Risk

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Without Conclusive Answers, The Sideways Curse Continues While it may be blessing for rates to be flatter and more predictable lately, the fact that the sideways range is close to long-term highs feels more like a curse. Apart from the year-end drift in December and the false start created by strong econ data in February, bonds have spent almost all of their time in the same range for 6 months now. [ 30 year fixed 6.67% ] emphasis added Tuesday: • At 8

Retail 147
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Is it Private Credit's Time to Shine?

Wealth Management

Private debt can offer certain clients safe harbor in stormy markets.

Clients 261
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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Ken Griffin’s Hand-Picked Math Prodigy Runs Market-Making Empire : Citadel Securities CEO Peng Zhao left for college at age 14, caught Griffin’s eye early in his career and built systems now mopping up market share. ( Businessweek ) • The sobering stats behind ‘past performance is no guarantee of future results’ : Most top performing managers fail to stay on top, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Math 146
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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Crypto ETFs Are Year’s Best Performers But Only Lure $12 Million

Wealth Management

The top five best-performing non-leveraged ETFs in 2023 are all crypto-linked, led by the Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI)’s 119% rally.

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Adviser links: gaining trust

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talk with Michael Kitces about tax-efficient retirement drawdown, and where to stash cash in a higher-interest-rate era. (morningstar.com) Frazer Rice talks with Jane Mintz about dealing with complex behavior issues. (podcasts.apple.com) Envestnet Why does Envestnet ($ENV) want a piece of the custody business? (riabiz.com) Envestnet ($ENV) has launched its own ETFs.

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Real Estate Private Investment Alts Navigate Choppy Waters

Wealth Management

IPA’s Anya Coverman talks redemption requests, regulatory pressures and growth outlook for non-traded REITs, BDCs, interval funds and other vehicles.

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey: Activity Fell Sharply in May

Advisor Perspectives

This morning we got the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 42.6 points from last month to -31.8, its biggest monthly decrease in 3 years. This morning's reading was well below the Investing.com forecast of -3.7 and puts the index back into contraction territory for the fifth time in six months.

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How to Avoid Pitfalls In Automation: Keep Humans In the Loop

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.

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Generation X Is Worried That Social Security Won’t Survive

Wealth Management

Survey finds Americans born between 1965 and 1980 are concerned that government benefits won’t be there to support them in retirement.

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Reducing the Impact of Momentum Crashes

Alpha Architect

Momentum crashes are a blight on the performance of momentum strategies. Although there has been a fair amount of research on the topic, few practical solutions have emerged to mitigate the impact on portfolios. In this study, the authors document the outperformance of stocks, in terms of momentum, far away from their peak position relative to stocks very near their peaks.

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How FIDx is Transforming the Annuity Business

Wealth Management

FIDx CEO Rich Romano explains the challenges advisors face offering clients annuities.

Clients 147
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Talk Your Book: Fidelity Digital Assets Mailbag

A Wealth of Common Sense

Today’s Talk Your Book is presented by Fidelity Digital Assets: On today’s show, we are joined again by Jack Neureuter, Research Analyst at Fidelity Digital Assets to discuss listener mailbag questions on crypto and Bitcoin. On today’s show, we discuss: What is the best way to buy Bitcoin? What to do with a high concentration of crypto in your portfolio Crypto v AI applications What drives the price of Bitcoin.

Assets 100
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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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New York Cements Its Status as the Global Hub for Gold Equities

Wealth Management

Top-five producer AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. will move its primary listing to the New York Stock Exchange.

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3 Tools You Can Use to Turbocharge Your RIA’s Marketing Funnel

XY Planning Network

If you’re thinking about diving into marketing automation for your RIA, or building out a marketing funnel for your financial planning firm, you’re in the right place. Part of a robust marketing funnel is a tech stack that does 3 things: Gives you time back in the day Automates important touchpoints with your leads Doesn’t cost more than it’s worth.

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Fundamental Analysis Of Divis Laboratories – Profitability & More

Trade Brains

Fundamental Analysis Of Divis Laboratories : It is no secret that India’s pharma industry is at a strategic advantage. From the low cost of production to the affordability of healthcare, the pharma industry has contributed to the boom of the hospitality sector in India. Some notable pharmaceutical companies have made their way to the Nifty Index and we’re going to perform a fundamental analysis of Divis Laboratories.

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Pascal’s Wager: The 0.1 Percent Risk

Advisor Perspectives

When planning for retirement, taking even the smallest risk can be life changing. Discover why financial advice during retirement planning is crucial with Harold Evensky.

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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: World Health Organization warns against use of non-sugar sweeteners, says they may increase risk of diabetes, heart issues and mortality in adults

MarketWatch

The World Health Organization said Monday it is advising people not to use non-sugar sweeteners for weight control, warning that they may increase the risk of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and mortality in adults. The agency said a systematic review of the available evidence suggests non-sugar sweeteners do not confer any long-term benefit in reducing body fat in adults or children.

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Avoiding Portfolio Surprises

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

The current Barron's has an article looking at whether healthcare sector stocks might be cheap. The following passage caught my eye. The reason it interested me is that the managers of the Jensen Quality Growth Fund have owned Stryker for decades. I first heard about it from former Jensen manager Robert Zagunis going back to the 90's. I believe in holding onto stocks and narrower ETFs for very long periods of time when possible, meaning when something bought turns out to be worthy of holding ont

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: 3M fires Chief Business and Country Officers Michael Vale for ‘inappropriate personal conduct’

MarketWatch

3M Co. MMM said Monday it has fired Michael Vale, group president and chief business and country officer, for cause. The dismissal is due to “inappropriate personal conduct and violation of company policy, unrelated to the company’s operations and financial performance,” the company said in a brief statement. The diversified industrial company and maker of PostIts has started a search for a successor.

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ChatGPT and I Recorded a Podcast

Steve Sanduski

Guest: ChatGPT , a natural language processing tool driven by AI technology that allows you to have human-like conversations and complete a variety of other mind-blowing things. This artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot developed by OpenAI was released in November 2022 and has been upgraded since then. In a Nutshell: With all the excitement and interest around artificial intelligence, particularly ChatGPT, I thought it was time I did an episode on AI.

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Demo SkyStem’s Award Winning Month-End Close Solution & Earn $100

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.