Fri.Mar 03, 2023

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week, Non-NonFarmPayroll, morning train WFH reads: • American workers aren’t returning to the office like their international counterparts—here’s why : Even as people got vaccinated and Covid restrictions eased over the years, U.S. office occupancy remains stagnant around 40% to 60% of pre-pandemic levels, Meanwhile, office attendance has returned to 70% to 90% in Europe and the Middle East, and around 80% to 110% in some Asian cities, meaning some workers are spending more time in the

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Podcast links: a growing crisis

Abnormal Returns

The biz There's really no distinction between podcasts and audiobooks. (hollywoodreporter.com) Podcasts are coming to YouTube Music. (techcrunch.com) Nicole Lapin is launching the Money News Network. (variety.com) Startups Patrick O'Shaughnessy talks with Doug Leone who is a long time Partner at Sequoia Capital (joincolossus.com) David Cover and Brett Beshore talk with Anu Hariharan of YCombinator about managing small businesses.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (March 4-5)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that amid economic and market headwinds, the pace of RIA M&A activity was slower in January and February compared to the same period last year. If this trend continues, 2023 would be the first year in more than a decade to see fewer transactions than the year before, though some industry observers continue to see significant appetite for deals.

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Friday links: risk and luck

Abnormal Returns

Markets Retail investors can't quit Tesla ($TSLA) stock. (wsj.com) Softbank is planning to IPO chip maker Arm Holdings in New York. (cnbc.com) Short-dated options are distorting market data. (ft.com) Strategy When does it make sense to take on duration in your bond portfolio? (awealthofcommonsense.com) Index funds have two major advantages. (morningstar.com) Berkshire Hathaway Evidence that Warren Buffett has become less verbose over time.

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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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Dan Nathan Predicts Recession

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Nick Maggiulli, Dan Nathan, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss earnings season, yields, mortgage rates, Buffett and buybacks, shorting private equity, world stock markets in 1899 vs today, how millionaires invest their money, the Silvergate collapse, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your fa.

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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.1% below recent peak Excerpt: It has been 17 years since the bubble peak. In the December Case-Shiller house price index released on Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 61% above the bubble peak in 2006.

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Talk Your Book: Lifetime Income

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Talk Your Book is brought to you by Prudential: See here and here for more information on annuities and lifetime income benefits On today’s show, we discuss: How yields have helped income-based strategies Common misconceptions about annuities What annuities make the most sense for retirees When does it make sense to purchase an annuity? How does pricing work with annuities?

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: Altria exchanges stake in Juul for heated-tobacco intellectual property

MarketWatch

Tobacco giant Altria MO on Friday said it had exchanged its minority stake in embattled e-cigarette maker Juul for “a non-exclusive, irrevocable global license to certain of JUUL’s heated tobacco intellectual property.” Altria Chief Executive Billy Gifford said in a statement that “We believe exchanging our Juul ownership for intellectual property rights is the appropriate path forward for our business.

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Intangibles and the Value Factor

Alpha Architect

This figure shows the long, short and long-short leg performance of the intangible value factor in comparison to the traditional value factor. The performance is shown for each of the four regions: U.S., Europe, Japan and Asia Pacific between June 1983 and December 2021. The monthly returns are ex-post volatility scaled to 5% p.m <strong>Intangibles and the Value Factor</strong> was originally published at Alpha Architect.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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AAR: February Rail Carloads and Intermodal Decreased Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. Coal, chemicals, and grain combined account for more than half of U.S. non-intermodal rail volume. When all three are down, it’s extremely likely total carloads are down too. That’s what happened in February 2023 compared with February 2022: total carloads fell by 15,101 carloads, or 1.6%.

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Cure Your Winter Woes with These Homey Delights

Integrity Financial Planning

With the holidays over, we are officially approaching the thick of the winter season. This time of year can be difficult, whether it be the bitter cold, lack of daylight, or decrease in social gatherings. But there is one perk that winter brings: comfort food. Comfort food gives rise to a psychologically comfortable and pleasurable state when eaten. [1] Embracing Comfort Food As the name suggests, comfort food is any type of food that brings a person some fulfillment.

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Credit Suisse Contests $1.3 Million Award to Ex-Advisor

Wealth Management

The bank filed a petition asking a federal court to overturn the award to James D. Garrity, who worked for Credit Suisse for 15 years before joining Morgan Stanley in 2015.

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Heavy Truck Sales Unchanged Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for February yesterday. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the February 2023 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all-time high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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The WealthStack Podcast: Why the Timing of Financial Advice Matters

Wealth Management

Financial advice delivered too early—or worse, too late—can have the opposite effect of its intention, says Bento Engine's Philipp Hecker

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The Triple-Tax Advantaged Strategy that Too Few Advisors Use

Advisor Perspectives

There’s one strategy that is not only a great wealth-building solution but is also triple tax-advantaged…

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Use a Prenup Checklist to Help Clients Plan for Marriage

Wealth Management

Ultimately, a prenup’s flexibility allows it to strengthen—rather than jinx—a marriage.

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10 Different Types Of Debt: Good Debt Vs Bad Debt Types

Clever Girl Finance

Debt can be a tricky thing to navigate. As many of us have experienced firsthand, it’s much easier to get into debt than out of it! However, the idea of “debt” is not a monolith—there’s nuance to it because there are different types of debt. These types of debt can affect your finances in different ways. (For one, not all kinds of debt are bad!) Knowing the different sorts of debt and how to manage them can help you make better decisions about your finances.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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: Biden had small cancerous lesion removed, White House doctor says

MarketWatch

President Joe Biden had a skin lesion removed on Feb. 16 during a checkup and it later was found to have been cancerous tissue, said Biden’s physician, Dr. Kevin O’Connor, in a memo released Friday by the White House. The memo said all cancerous tissue was removed, no further treatment is required, and the site of the biopsy has “healed nicely.” Market Pulse Stories are Rapid-fire, short news bursts on stocks and markets as they move.

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Orion Debuts New Direct Indexing Workflow

Wealth Management

The wealthtech company announced Story Paths at its Ascent conference in Orlando.

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: Verizon CFO Ellis to step down and be succeeded by current controller

MarketWatch

Verizon Communications Inc. VZ said Friday that it has appointed Anthony Skiadas, its vice president and controller, to ascend to the role of chief financial officer starting at the beginning of May. He will succeed Matthew Ellis, who is “leaving the company to pursue other interests.” Skiadas has been in his current position at Verizon since 2013. The company further noted that Mary-Lee Stillwell will take on Skiadas’ role of senior vice president and controller once he becomes the CFO.

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SEC’s Gensler Open to Trading-Revamp Tweaks After Criticism

Wealth Management

The SEC chair said the regulator is more inclined to hold the interests of the investing public above others.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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Market Extra: Inflation has yet to peak in most G-10 countries and ‘we are waiting for a proper market reality check’: BofA

MarketWatch

Getty Images/iStockphoto“The inflation genie is still out of the bottle.”Those are the words of strategists Claudio Piron and Athanasios Vamvakidis at BofA Securities, who said on Friday that inflation has yet to peak in most Group-of-10 countries and that “we are waiting for a proper market reality check.”In an email to MarketWatch, Vamvakidis, the London-based global head of G10 FX strategy, said the “reality check” refers to “all markets” and the need for “a proper risk-off, as the economy we

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S&P Global Services PMI: Renewed Expansion in February

Advisor Perspectives

The February US services purchasing managers' index (PMI) conducted by S&P Global came in at 50.6 percent, notably up from 46.8 in January and just slightly higher than the Investing.com forecast of 50.5. This morning's reading moves the index into expansion territory after being in contraction for seven months.

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: Meta is slashing prices on VR headsets

MarketWatch

Meta Quest Pro, Meta Platforms Inc.’s META VR headset for business users, is getting significantly cheaper. The company on Friday announced the Pro’s price will be chopped to $999 from $1,499. The 256-GB version of the Quest 2 is being reduced to $429 from $499. Facebook’s parent company explained the price reductions as a way to “create hardware that’s affordable for as many people as possible” and make the technology “available to even more businesses and professionals around the world.

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Q1 GDP Tracking

Calculated Risk

From BofA: Data received since our update last Friday lowered our 1Q tracking estimate from 1.3% q/q saar to 0.9% q/q saar. The reduction in our tracking estimate was driven by weaker data on personal consumption, trade and inventories. [Mar 3rd estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q 1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged after rounding at +2.0% (qoq ar) but lowered our domestic final sales forecast by 0.1pp to +2.3%.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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Clueless Wall Street Is Racing to Size Up Zero-Day Options Boom

Wealth Management

Zero-day options got a fresh boost on index trading after firms like Cboe Global Markets Inc. last year expanded S&P 500 options expirations to cover each weekday.

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February 2023: Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields

Advisor Perspectives

Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. On August 4, 2020, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its all-time low of 0.52%. As of February 28, 2023 it was at 3.92%.

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Cash Pays More Than 60/40 Portfolio

Validea

For the first time in over 20 years, the traditional 60/40 stock-and-bond portfolio is paying out less than some of the most risk-free securities, reports an article in Bloomberg. The yield on 6-month U.S. Treasury notes climbed to 5.14%, notching it higher than the 5.07% yield on the standard portfolio comprised of 60% U.S. equities and 40% fixed-income securities, as gauged by the S&P 500 Index of stocks and Bloomberg USAgg Index of bonds.