Thu.Jul 27, 2023

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10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My morning train reads: • Commercial Real Estate Is in Trouble, but Not for the Reason You Think : As far as weak spots go, there are reasons for concern. Offices comprise 80% of new delinquencies in commercial real estate loans, and occupancy rates in major cities consistently hover around 50% of capacity. But the towers we once commuted to comprise just a tiny fraction of the overall commercial real estate market.

Food 243
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Thursday links: improving vibes

Abnormal Returns

Rates The Fed funds rate is at its highest level in 22 years. (nytimes.com) U.S. consumers are less exposed to higher interest rates than they used to be. (wsj.com) QQQ What do you get when you run a regression on the returns of the Invesco QQQ Trust ($QQQ)? (alphaarchitect.com) What you need to know about the rebalance of the Invesco QQQ Trust ($QQQ).

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Kitces & Carl Ep 117: Sustaining A Profitable Advisory Business That Allows You To Explore New Endeavors

Nerd's Eye View

While many financial advisory firm owners have long-term goals that involve building a career based in a profitable and sustainable advisory firm, there are some firm owners who develop their firm as a means to explore and pursue other business endeavors. These firm owners may opt to take a backseat role in running the firm, yet must still entrust client relationships and firm management to their advisors and support team.

Clients 179
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Longform links: 36 years of data

Abnormal Returns

Books An excerpt from "Easy Money: Cryptocurrency, Casino Capitalism, and the Golden Age of Fraud" by Ben McKenzie and Jacob Silverman. (rollingstone.com) An excerpt from "Wasteland: The Secret World of Waste and the Urgent Search for a Cleaner Future" by Oliver Franklin-Wallis (gq.com) An excerpt from “Programmable Planet: The Synthetic Biology Revolution” by Ted Danton.

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Elevating Accounting Practices: The Power of Outsourcing and Automation in the Digital Age

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.

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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Bernstein raises Apple’s price target to $195 from CNBC Watch CNBC’s investment committee discuss Meta’s earnings call from CNBC Threads is not the reason why Meta’s stock is up, Ritholtz’s Josh Brown from CNBC Final Trades: GM, Charter, Live Nation & more from CNBC

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More Trending

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Jindal Steel & Power Vs Jindal Stainless – Financials, Future Plans & More

Trade Brains

Jindal Steel & Power vs Jindal Stainless: The shares of various steel companies rallied in the financial year 2020-21 as they announced record earnings because of volume growth and margin expansion. The steel stocks are in focus again with many companies giving multi-bagger returns to their shareholders. Are you eying any steel stock? How about the two Jindal companies?

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Mindy Diamond on Independence: A Former Merrill Lifer on Why Even Long-Tenured Advisors Can Benefit From Breaking Away

Wealth Management

As a former Merrill ACTM chairperson, Andy Ferguson had an acute view of the changes taking place at the firm. He shares how that influenced his decision to opt for independence over Merrill’s retire-in-place program.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 8% YoY; New Listings Down 18% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending July 22, 2023 • Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 8%. This week marks a 5th consecutive annual decline in the number of homes actively available for sale. • New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down again this week, by 18% from one year ago.

Sales 98
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13 Must Reads for Real Estate Investors (July 28, 2023)

Wealth Management

Google may be at the end of reducing its real estate footprint, reports CoStar. Non-Traded REIT fundraising rebounded to $597 million in June, according to Robert A Stanger & Co. These are among the must reads from around the real estate investment world to end the week.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Friday: Personal Income and Outlays

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, June 2022. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%. PCE prices are expected to be up 3.1% YoY, and core PCE prices up 4.2% YoY. • At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for July).

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Florida’s Flood of New Wealth Boosts High-Speed Train Bonds

Wealth Management

Municipal securities issued for Brightline, the privately-run passenger rail company, have returned as much as about 20% this year, far out pacing a 5.5% gain for high-yield municipal bonds.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 221,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending July 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 221,000 , a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 228,000. The 4-week moving average was 233,750, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 237,500. emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

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Remembering Simpler Times to Live a Better Future

Integrity Financial Planning

For many retirees, reminiscing about their childhood can be a soothing and nostalgic experience. It’s a journey back to simpler times when life was less complicated and technology had not yet permeated every aspect of living. Let’s take a walk down memory lane and revisit some of those vivid memories that might be tucked away in the corners of your mind and heart.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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As the Opportunity Zone Program Nears Its End, Real Estate Pros Eye an Extension

Wealth Management

Any renewals of the Opportunity Zone program would have to be enacted by a divided Congress, but real estate industry experts are cautiously optimistic.

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Are the Markets Stacked Against the Little Guy?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: Can you speak to if you think the market is skewed toward benefiting the large players more than the small players if not being downright rigged against the small players? There’s a movie coming out this fall about the Gamestop saga called Dumb Money: Nick Sapienza joined me on the show to go over questions about expected returns in financial markets, setting expectations for your financial plan, the.

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The Compound and Friends: When In Doubt, Zoom Out

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Compound and Friends is brought to you by J.P. Morgan Asset Management: See here for more information on JP Morgans’s suite of ETF products. On today’s show, we discuss: JC’s chart storm – see our latest TCAF YouTube video for all of JCs visuals No one is really embracing this rally as an upward new bull market, says Fundstrats Tom Lee After a misjudged first half, strategists face.

Assets 82
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Regression is a tool that can turn you into a fool

Alpha Architect

Running regressions on past returns is a great tool for academic researchers who understand this approach's nuance, assumptions, pitfalls, and limitations. However, when factor regressions become part of a sales effort and/or are put in the hands of investors/advisors/DIYers, "the tool can quickly turn you into a fool." Regression is a tool that can turn you into a fool was originally published at Alpha Architect.

Sales 84
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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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A Can't Miss Way to Build COI Relationships

Wealth Management

It’s based on the idea that you should be current in all areas of your clients’ financial lives, not just their investments.

Clients 98
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Show Us Your Portfolio: Adam Butler

Validea

In this episode we speak with ReSolve Asset Management CIO Adam Butler about how he manages his personal portfolio. We discuss how Adam builds a portfolio of uncorrelated return streams to optimize both return and risk. We also cover how to view historical data, how investors focus on tracking error changes portfolio theory, leverage, leaving money to children and a lot more.

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As Rates Rise, Consider Fixed Income that Floats

Wealth Management

How floating rate direct loans have thrived in past periods of rising interest rates and market volatility.

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Unsettled Foundations of the Housing Market

Advisor Perspectives

Mortgage rates are the highest they’ve been in over 30 years, keeping home affordability in unprecedented territory. However, mortgage rates above 7% aren’t the only factor keeping home prices high.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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No Tax Due on Transfer of Assets Between Private Foundations

Wealth Management

Private letter ruling examines how to effectively consolidate through a Section 507(b)(2) transfer.

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How to Redirect Fee Conversations to Value Propositions

Indigo Marketing Agency

As a financial advisor, engaging in fee conversations with prospective clients can be challenging—and sometimes downright awkward! There are those who will focus solely on what you charge and overlook the broader value of how you can help. Others are convinced that they can DIY their financial plan for free. To overcome the fee hurdle, it is essential to redirect these conversations toward the value propositions you offer.

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The State of the Firm: Walkner Condon

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

Occasionally we like to inform our clients about what is going on at Walkner Condon, as we have some exciting updates to share with you. Nate and Clint have recorded a podcast on these items, but we also wanted to offer it in written form as well. Staff Changes We bid goodbye to Most Mico last week. She was a great fit in an administrative role for us during her tenure.

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NAR: Pending Home Sales Up 0.3% in June; Down 15.6% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Rose 0.3% in June, First Increase in Three Months Pending home sales registered a modest increase of 0.3% in June from the previous month – the first increase since February – according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The South and West posted monthly losses, while sales in the Northeast and Midwest grew. All four U.S. regions saw year-over-year declines in transactions.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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Valuation Metrics in Emerging Debt

Advisor Perspectives

Our emerging market debt valuation metrics across all but the U.S. interest rate dimension remain unambiguously attractive. In our Quarterly Valuation Update, we provide our Q2 assessment.

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Show Us Your Portfolio: Adam Butler

Validea

In this episode we speak with ReSolve Asset Management CIO Adam Butler about how he manages his personal portfolio. We discuss how Adam builds a portfolio of uncorrelated return streams to optimize both return and risk. We also cover how to view historical data, how investors focus on tracking error changes portfolio theory, leverage, leaving money to children and a lot more.

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Weekly Unemployment Claims Fall for Third Straight Week

Advisor Perspectives

In the week ending July 22, seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims was at 221,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure. Initial claims have now fallen for three straight weeks and are currently at their lowest level since February. This latest reading came in below the forecast of 235,000.

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