Thu.May 25, 2023

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The First Rule of Dunning Kruger…

The Big Picture

Of all the cognitive errors in behavioral finance and human psychology , the one that creates the most confusion is the Dunning-Kruger effect. (Perhaps its rise in pop culture is to blame). Regardless, I find DKE to be an incredibly useful tool that helps explain many of the individual errors we see in investing. It’s useful to think of Dunning Kruger in terms of metacognition : One’s ability to self-evaluate a particular skill set.

Math 320
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The Top 15 Cities With the Most Billionaires

Wealth Management

Where do the richest of the rich choose to reside?

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10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My morning train WFH reads: • Debt-Ceiling Fight Sends Investors Hunting for New Havens : Traders worried about a potential U.S. default are swapping their go-to safe haven for the bonds of America’s top-rated companies. Just days or weeks before the government faces a possible funding shortfall, investors are shunning U.S. Treasury bills that will mature over the next several months while paying a premium to buy debt issued by Microsoft and Johnson & Johnson, two of the highest-rated U.S. c

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Street Retail Assets Survive the Pandemic Still Highly Prized by Investors

Wealth Management

Investment sales in the sector have been impacted by the same volatile forces as other commercial real estate assets, but potential long-term returns remain attractive.

Assets 279
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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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Thursday links: failing fast

Abnormal Returns

Investing Vanguard CEO Tim Buckley on what tasks AI is going to take over. (pionline.com) Igor Tulchinsky, "Using AI to move between visual and text is an interesting way of harnessing algorithms to potentially identify opportunities or shape conclusions that may be more obvious when seen by the human eye." (semafor.com) Expect more ETFs to be marketed based on the use of AI.

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How Data Analytics Can Improve the Financial Performance of Seniors Housing Portfolios

Wealth Management

While technology solutions are aplenty, driving actionable insights from data is still lacking in the industry.

Portfolio 279

More Trending

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RIA Edge: Shirl Penney Predicts the Future

Wealth Management

Client-driven independence, surprising partnerships and evolving tech will define the “greatest time to be a financial advisor,” according to the founder of Dynasty Financial Partners.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 20% YoY; New Listings Down 26% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from chief economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending May 20, 2023 • Active inventory growth slowed again, with for-sale homes up just 20% above one year ago. The number of homes for sale was higher than this time last year, but not by as much as we’ve seen in recent weeks.

Sales 225
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Advisor Innovations Podcast: Tim Maurer on Why Personal Finance is More Personal Than Finance

Wealth Management

Signature FD's Tim Maurer describes how he sees the lessons of life planning and qualitative financial advice being tactically implemented in advisor-client relationships.

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May Vehicle Sales Forecast: 15.3 million SAAR, Up Sharply YoY

Calculated Risk

From WardsAuto: May U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Set for Biggest Volume Gain in 2023 (pay content). Brief excerpt: Rising inventory, combined with pent-up demand, is keeping growth going mostly by holding the long list of economic- and price-related headwinds at bay, but there is potential for demand to sharply drop at the end of the month – and in June - if an agreement on the U.S. debt ceiling remains elusive and further spooks consumers. emphasis added Note: When writing "biggest volume gain", Wa

Sales 208
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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Are Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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Mindy Diamond on Independence: Considering a Move? Here’s What You Need to Know

Wealth Management

In the second of this 2-part series, Mindy Diamond and Jason Diamond provide the key steps to a strategic process with focused outcomes.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 229,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending May 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 229,000 , an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 17,000 from 242,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,750, unchanged from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 12,500 from 244,250 to 231,750. emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of we

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Ex-Morgan Stanley Advisor Gets Seven Years for Fleecing Clients in Ponzi Scheme

Wealth Management

Shawn Edward Good took in $7.2 million from at least 13 victims, according to federal prosecutors.

Clients 245
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NAR: Pending Home Sales Unchanged in April; Down 20.3% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Recorded No Change in April Pending home sales recorded no change in April, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Three U.S. regions posted monthly gains, while the Northeast decreased. All four regions saw year-over-year declines in transactions. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – remained at 78.9 in April, posting no change from the previous month.

Sales 195
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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Michigan-based Firms Join Integrated Partners to Enhance UNHW Services

Wealth Management

Two teams with more than $500 million in combined assets have joined the Integrated Partners platform to build out services for wealthier clients.

Assets 238
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Q1 GDP Growth Revised up to 1.3% Annual Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate), First Quarter 2023 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2023 , according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.6 percent.

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AI Intrigues ETF Managers as Both Investment and Tool

Wealth Management

AI replaced cryptocurrencies as the topic of the moment for the thousands of issuers, index providers and advisers who attended the Inside ETFs conference.

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The Stock Market is Not a Casino

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: Ben showed the numbers for U.S. stock positive returns over the long-term. How does the data look for global ex-U.S. performance? Fair question. Here is the data I showed in a recent blog post: Since 1926, the U.S. stock market has experienced positive returns: 56% of the time on a daily basis 63% of the time on a monthly basis 75% of the time on a yearly basis 88% of the time on a 5 year basis 95% of th.

Marketing 145
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How to Avoid Pitfalls In Automation: Keep Humans In the Loop

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.

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Michigan-Based Firms Join Integrated Partners to Enhance UHNW Services

Wealth Management

Two teams with more than $500 million in combined assets have joined the Integrated Partners platform to build out services for wealthier clients.

Assets 162
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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Two price target cuts for Disney from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Focused on the Future Podcast: Hannah Moore on Embracing Your 'Why'

Wealth Management

Guiding Wealth and Amplified Planning's Hannah Moore discusses reimagining client offerings, internships and developing talent on the first-ever episode of the Focused on the Future podcast.

Clients 147
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Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Durable Goods

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, April 2023. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%. PCE prices are expected to be up 4.3% YoY, and core PCE prices up 4.6% YoY. • Also at 8:30 AM, Durable Goods Orders for April from the Census Bureau.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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The Hidden Benefits of Decumulation Diversification

Wealth Management

Tuesday, June 13, 2023 | 2:00 PM ET

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: NYC banking commission votes to halt city deposits at Capital One, KeyBank

MarketWatch

New York City’s banking commission voted to freeze deposits at Capital One Financial Corp. COF and KeyCorp’s KEY KeyBank after the two banks failed to submit required plans showing their efforts to halt discrimination, the city’s comptroller said in a statement on Thursday, alleging that the banks “outright refused to submit required policies.” The comptroller, Brad Lander, also voted against designating Wells Fargo & Co.

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The Impact of Continued Learning on Business Development With Joey Davenport

NAIFA Advisor Today

Joey Davenport is the Co-founder and President of Hoopis Performance Network (HPN), a LIMRA strategic partner providing innovative, web-based sales training and leadership development learning solutions for financial professionals. Joey is responsible for leading all sales and marketing, enterprise client relationships, solutions development, and team development for the organization.

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: Pfizer wins full FDA approval for oral COVID therapy Paxlovid for adults at high risk of developing severe illness

MarketWatch

Pfizer Inc. PFE said Thursday it has received full Food and Drug Administration approval for its Paxlovid oral treatment for COVID-19 for use in adult patients with high risk of developing severe disease. The treatment has been available in the U.S. since December of 2021 under an Emergency Use Authorization. To date, more than 11.6 million treatment courses have been prescribed.

Food 98
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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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Imagine Financial Planning 2030

Advisor Perspectives

AI’s arrival will have an increasingly large impact on our lives. That includes investing and, especially, other aspects of financial planning.

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: Stratasys and Desktop Metal to combine in all-stock deal valued at about $1.8 billion that will create new player in 3-D printing space

MarketWatch

Stratasys Ltd. SSYS and Desktop Metal Inc. DM said Thursday they have agreed to combine in an all-stock deal valued at about $1.8 billion that will create a new company in the 3-D printing space. Under the terms of the board-approved deal, Desktop Metal shareholders will receive 0.123 shares of Stratasys for each share owned, equal to about $1.88 per share.

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The Compound and Friends: Nvidia Breaks Away

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Compound and Friends is brought to you by Public: Thanks to Public for sponsoring this episode. Go to public.com/compound to learn more about investing in US Treasuries. On today’s show, we discuss: Nvidia poised for record sales as AI demand kicks in Is your job safe? ChatGPT use case UNESCO, Airbnb, and Mexico City partner to promote the city as a remote working hub Remote banking crisis The work f.

Banking 79
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: Ford EVs will be able to use Tesla charging stations under new agreement

MarketWatch

Ford Motor Co. F said late Thursday that its electric-vehicle owners soon will have access to the more than 12,000 Tesla Inc. TSLA superchargers in the U.S. and Canada, as the two automakers have reached an agreement scheduled to start in a year. Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley and Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk held a Twitter “spaces” talk to reveal the agreement.

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Demo SkyStem’s Award Winning Month-End Close Solution & Earn $100

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.