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1st Quarter 2024 Economic And Market Outlook: Potential Increased Volatility, Threats To Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

Nerd's Eye View

With a plethora of interdependent and ever-changing parts, gaining a clear (or even not-terribly-fuzzy) understanding of where the economy stands at any given moment is a daunting task, to say the least. At the same time, value and international stocks continue to lag, trading as if the economy is already in the depths of a serious recession.

Economics 171
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Sunday links: when irrationality takes over

Abnormal Returns

Markets Market valuations aren't that helpful in the short term. axios.com) Everybody wants simpler taxes, but it never happens. bloomberg.com) Economy Consumer balance sheets are in good shape. tker.co) The U.S. yield curve has been inverted for a record amount of time. axios.com) Private equity return dispersion is a problem.

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week, market’s-closed-but-BLS-open Good Friday reads: • Here’s What Happens at the IRS After You File Your Taxes Refunds can come in five days—or a few months. American Prospect ) see also Six Ways Existing Economic Models Are Killing the Economy : The alleged science doesn’t match up to the real world.

Valuation 286
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Sunday links: biased expectations

Abnormal Returns

michaelparekh.substack.com) Venture capital Q2 2023 startup data from AngelList show median valuations back to pre-pandemic levels. wsj.com) Starting next year, most US taxpayers will be able to file their taxes completely paperless with the IRS. nytimes.com) Economy How political affiliation has polluted economic sentiment.

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Monday links: sudden reversals

Abnormal Returns

wsj.com) Taxes on share buybacks are a speed bump. capitalgains.thediff.co) Startups How increased regulatory risk is affecting startup valuations. wired.com) Economy Another indicator showing a deceleration in the economy. (msn.com) S&P 500 companies could do $1 trillion in buybacks in 2023.

Startup 130
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Tuesday links: a complete transformation

Abnormal Returns

ft.com) Venture Tomasz Tunguz, "The bid/ask spread in VC is the difference between the post-money valuation between a VC (the bidder) & a company (seller)." wsj.com) Economy There is a record number of housing units currently under construction. abnormalreturns.com) Adviser links: estate tax intricacies.

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Thursday links: the cause of bubbles

Abnormal Returns

(howardlindzon.com) Private assets Why private equity needs much better valuations. axios.com) Funds Tax efficiency is the secret sauce of ETFs. bloomberg.com) Economy What does a 'no landing' economic scenario look like? ft.com) Why where investors mark the portfolios can be all over the place. pragcap.com) Fidelity is hiring!