James Hendries

JANUARY 13, 2023

Lessons learned: Economic forecasts The Fed’s bark was as bad as its bite! economy to avoid recession, and support above-average valuations. The hit to valuations in the form of about 4 P/E points (21 to 17) translates into a roughly 20% drop in the S&P 500 Index. Here are some of our lessons learned from 2022.

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James Hendries

JUNE 26, 2023

With the broad market overbought in the short-term from a technical analysis perspective and valuations elevated, stocks may be due for a pause. Our base case calls for a mild and short-lived recession to begin by year-end, but the latest economic data have slightly raised the odds of a soft landing. All index data from FactSet.

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Marketing Marketing Asset Allocation Valuation 52

James Hendries

JUNE 20, 2023

That’s not suggesting another 2008 is coming, but rather highlights how fast the economic environment can change. Along with the statement, the Committee updated the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which is arguably more important than the brief monetary policy statement.

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James Hendries

OCTOBER 18, 2022

The challenges are many, with intense cost pressures and slowing economic growth at the top of the list. These headwinds include slower economic growth, cost pressures amid high inflation, ongoing supply chain issues, geopolitical instability in Europe and Asia, and significant currency drag from a very strong U.S. Numerous Headwinds.

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James Hendries

MARCH 6, 2023

Economic activity does not stop like an airplane eventually does, but rather the economy will settle into a steady state where growth is consistent with factors such as population and productivity. Perhaps that was not the first time market watchers used the term, but the conversations at the Economic Club of New York were prescient.

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Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

James Hendries

OCTOBER 25, 2022

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter of U.S. business cycles, and they consider a wide range of economic indicators other than just the quarterly GDP metric. Depth refers to declining economic activity that is more than a relatively small change. The following paragraph explains one of them.

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Marketing Marketing Economics Economy 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 30, 2022

Still, corporate America delivered the type of upside investors have grown accustomed to in much easier economic environments. We’re counting on inflation pressures easing next year while economic growth potentially picks up from the anemic level in the first half of 2022 to provide additional support. The numbers.

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Marketing Marketing Valuation Economics 52

James Hendries

OCTOBER 4, 2022

Given the country’s weak economy, due in large part to stringent zero-COVID-19 measures that have led to strict and prolonged lockdowns, coupled with a debt-laden property market, authorities in Beijing and throughout the Chinese provinces will need to focus on reviving the country’s economic underpinning. from an earlier forecast of 5%.

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Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

James Hendries

JANUARY 26, 2023

Easing inflation pressures and a stable job market with only modest additional tightening from the Fed are keys to limiting the severity of an economic downturn. The dotted grey line highlights the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from the Fed, which shows policymakers’ forecast for a fed funds rate of 5.1%

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Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 23, 2022

At this rate, home sales will likely continue to slow and residential investment could turn out to be a drag on Q3 economic growth. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. Regional differences are profound.

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James Hendries

AUGUST 15, 2022

Market strategists and pundits make the relationship between recessions and the stock market seem binary, but each economic contraction is different and has different effects on earnings. First, keep in mind that stocks tend to look forward by four to six months and can provide warnings of changing economic conditions.

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Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 13, 2022

Likewise, during periods of economic slowdown, temporary workers are typically the first to get the notorious pink slip. One risk is the high number of workers in temporary help services since these jobs often are the first to go during times of economic uncertainty. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal.

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Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 15, 2022

due to expectations of slowing economic growth. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors and they do not take into account the particular needs, investment objectives, tax and financial condition of any specific person. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

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James Hendries

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

With a series of important economic indicators suggesting the economy is declining and inflation is finally decelerating, albeit very slowly, markets are beginning to factor in that the Fed may soon transition to a less aggressive stance in early 2023. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal.

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James Hendries

AUGUST 3, 2022

The official arbiter of business cycle dating is the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). had never before experienced the massive swings in economic activity during the 2020 pandemic, making even the current analysis more difficult. The economic growth outlook has weakened. Of course, the U.S. However, after a 12.6%

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Sara Grillo

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

He is a flat fee advisor; not a licensed insurance agent. I am a CFA® charterholder and financial advisor marketing consultant. I have a newsletter in which I talk about financial advisor lead generation topics which is best described as “fun and irreverent.” Should advisors go to hell before selling an annuity?

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Insurance Financial Advisor Retirement License 59

James Hendries

JULY 13, 2022

Although energy prices came down some, weakening economic data and the lack of a cease-fire in Ukraine offset the modest gas price relief. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing. Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

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James Hendries

JANUARY 20, 2023

These headwinds—clearly not new news—include slower global economic growth, cost pressures from still-elevated inflation, ongoing supply chain issues, currency drag from a stronger U.S. Even the economic pressures have eased some, with fourth quarter U.S. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal.

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Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 27, 2022

As we know from historical precedents, when the Fed aggressively raises rates, economic growth slows or outright contracts, which is the Fed’s goal. High quality bonds tend to perform relatively well during economic slowdowns and/or contractions. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal.

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James Hendries

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors and they do not take into account the particular needs, investment objectives, tax and financial condition of any specific person. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

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James Hendries

JANUARY 31, 2023

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates.

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Marketing Marketing Valuation Insurance 52

James Hendries

OCTOBER 7, 2022

There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors and they do not take into account the particular needs, investment objectives, tax and financial condition of any specific person. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

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Portfolio Taxes Investment Advisor Asset Allocation 52

James Hendries

OCTOBER 11, 2022

The British pound had been weakening for some time amid a backdrop of dollar strength and a poor economic outlook as the U.K. There should be considerably more understandable clarity from what corporate leaders tell us about the economic and financial environment than what Fed officials are able to offer. All index data from FactSet.

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James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 8, 2022

There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors and they do not take into account the particular needs, investment objectives, tax and financial condition of any specific person. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

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Portfolio Taxes Investment Advisor Asset Allocation 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 20, 2022

economic growth. More specifically, it reflects how the Fed intends to stimulate or slow economic growth by cutting or raising its policy rate. This is referred to as an inverted yield curve, which has been a pretty reliable predictor of economic recessions. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal.

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James Hendries

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

Growth stocks typically trade at higher valuations on the premise that an investor is buying a company now that will grow to be a much larger company, producing higher levels of cash and profit in the future. Increasing the discount rate, which lowers the present value of future cash flows, and company valuations.

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James Hendries

DECEMBER 4, 2022

Economic and corporate data support the initial strong reads on holiday retail sales despite the macro headwinds, reinforcing the idea that today’s consumer is in a better position than usual at this point in the business cycle. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Retail Stocks Not as Resilient as Consumers.

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Retail Marketing Marketing Sales 52

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

Businesses often begin cutting these jobs during periods of economic uncertainty and an increasingly large number of individuals in these roles is inherently unstable for the labor market. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio.

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Marketing Marketing Valuation Insurance 52

James Hendries

NOVEMBER 22, 2022

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates.

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Marketing Marketing Valuation Asset Allocation 52

James Hendries

AUGUST 15, 2022

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates.

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Marketing Marketing Economy Valuation 52

James Hendries

JULY 6, 2022

While we acknowledge that a V-shaped recovery is probably not in the cards and prior valuation targets no longer appear achievable, we remain constructive on equities for the second half, but not complacent. Remember stock valuations are inversely correlated to inflation and interest rates. So a P/E over 20 is probably too rich.

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James Hendries

JULY 21, 2022

Understandably, rising prices, slowing economic growth, and a challenging first half for both stocks and bonds have many investors on edge, and fatigue from more than two years of COVID-19 measures doesn’t make it any easier. Lower inflation tends to bring higher valuations (Fig.1). If the U.S. If the U.S.

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James Hendries

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

Even if there’s a strong case to be made, we think debt service prioritization would be allowed to continue while the case works its way through the courts, since the potential economic damage would be too great otherwise. Payments that were deferred would be repaid in arrears so the economic impact would likely be minimal.

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James Hendries

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

Policy itself can be difficult to forecast, and economic factors often overwhelm the impact on markets. But as seen in the energy example above, larger economic forces tend to be more meaningful. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates.

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