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What Are the Best & Worst-Case Tariff Scenarios?

The Big Picture

The US remains the global economic, military, and political leader. Later in the year, encouraged by improving CPI data and minimal economic disruption, the FOMC resumes its rate-cutting regime. Some damage gets done to the US economy and trade relations. We have sticky, stubborn stagflation, a very unpleasant economic scenario.

Economics 317
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Surprise! California’s 40 Qs of Rising Minimum Wage & Fast Food Industry Growth (Beating USA)

The Big Picture

They ignored seasonality; they they mixed the match data from completely different series; they cherry, picked starting and stopped dates for their analysis that bore no relationship to the underlying economic trends. Economies are extremely dynamic, ever-changing on a day-to-day basis.

Food 304
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10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture

The weird contradictions rendering the US economy inexplicable : Thanks to the pandemic and how advanced economies responded to it, we’re in a very strange place indeed. The typical relationships between one signal from the economy and another have diverged in surprising ways. The Review of Economic Studies ). •

Economy 275
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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

. • Blame History for Making Recession Calls So Hard : The National Bureau of Economic Research has been putting dates on downturns since 1929 — well before there was such a thing as gross domestic product ( Bloomberg ) see also Does This Look Like a Recession To You? Quanta Magazine ). Things are very weird right now. citizens.

License 287
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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

Corporate Stagflation Means Rising Sales With Flat Volumes It’s growth, but not healthy growth, and it doesn’t really help the economy. Corporate Stagflation Means Rising Sales With Flat Volumes It’s growth, but not healthy growth, and it doesn’t really help the economy. But people with patience and long horizons came out fine. (

Economics 302
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Sunday links: when irrationality takes over

Abnormal Returns

ft.com) Strategy Why you can ignore all the magazine cover commentary. bloomberg.com) Economy Consumer balance sheets are in good shape. bonddad.blogspot.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. Markets Market valuations aren't that helpful in the short term. tker.co) The U.S. ft.com) Industrial production is fading.

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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

Liberty Street Economics ) see also Pizza? Geopolitics, the economy and unforeseen events will determine whether the relief will last. ( A society with murky goals whose selling point is superiority is not a healthy place to find it.” ( New York Magazine ). • New York Magazine ). Falling Oil Prices Defy Predictions.

Food 303