Nerd's Eye View

MAY 2, 2025

a ski chalet), assessing whether it will lead to greater overall wellbeing, or, alternatively, more stress, is more challenging Enjoy the 'light' reading! a ski chalet), assessing whether it will lead to greater overall wellbeing, or, alternatively, more stress, is more challenging Enjoy the 'light' reading!

Financial Planner 159

Financial Planner CFP Financial Advisor Retirement 159

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 23, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 0.70% in December The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained flat relative to the prior month at 0.70% as of December 31, 2022.

Portfolio 262

Portfolio Planning Numbers 262

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. My portfolio was tiny; I had no 401k, and my wife’s 403(b), with less than a decade’s worth of contributions, was barely 5-figures.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

The Big Picture

APRIL 17, 2025

All costs impact your returns, but high or excessive fees have an enormous impact as they compound or, more accurately, lessen your portfolios compounding over time. I have made some fortuitously timed buys, including Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) calls purchased during the October 2022 lows.

Investing 267

Investing Investments Accounting Startup 267

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.74% in July The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 0.81% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.74% as of July 31, 2022.

Portfolio 223

Portfolio Planning Numbers 223

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests. (I have long been a fan of the concept of Strong Opinions, Weakly Held ).

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases Slightly to 0.70% in October The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased by 1 basis point from 0.69% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.70% as of October 31, 2022.

Portfolio 208

Portfolio Numbers Planning 208

Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.51% in April The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 4 basis points from 0.55% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.51% as of April 30, 2023.

Portfolio 204

Portfolio Numbers Planning Taxes 204

Nerd's Eye View

MARCH 8, 2024

Read More.

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Asset Allocation Clients Risk Management 246

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 20, 2023

Also in industry news this week: While the number of RIA M&A deals increased in 2022, the size of these deals declined, perhaps reflecting challenging market and economic headwinds A recent survey suggests that nearly half of financial advisory clients have changed advisors or have considered doing so since the start of the pandemic and that portfolio (..)

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Financial Advice Fee Only Financial Planning 246

Nerd's Eye View

JULY 21, 2023

Further, the study identifies the traits of "top performing" firms, which, during the past 5 years, saw nearly triple the client and net organic asset growth compared to other firms.

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Clients Numbers Assets 246

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JANUARY 17, 2025

WAAV seems Permanent Portfolio inspired which is why I threw in AQRIX and PRPFX along with VBAIX as a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio makes sense as a benchmark. Both the ACWI and SPY versions outperformed AQRIX which is sort of a risk parity fund and PRPFX which is the Permanent Portfolio. The results are a mixed bag.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Management Taxes Numbers 52

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 13, 2023

etf.com) Things to keep in mind when direct indexing a client's portfolio. riabiz.com) The number of CFPs grew some 5% in 2022. (fa-mag.com) (flowfp.com) The IRS has clarified its approach to state rebate payments. wsj.com) Direct indexing Vanguard is planning a bigger push into direct indexing.

Clients 245

Clients Retirement Financial Services Taxes 245

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 28, 2024

Bonds with duration are now more volatile than they used to be and that volatility is less reliable than it used to be making them a less effective diversifier for the equity portion of a diversified portfolio. Where Portfolio 3 should zero out, it's pretty close to doing just that.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Retirement Retirement Planning Assets 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 3, 2024

You can see that 60/40 equities/managed futures stayed close to 60/40 equities/bonds at a time when managed futures was doing poorly and then pulled ahead in recent years including going up 3.25% in 2022. 90/40 had a higher CAGR than traditional 60/40 but lower than 60% equities/40% managed futures in Portfolio 3.

Numbers 96

Numbers Portfolio Management Retirement 96

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 14, 2024

With so much allocated to T-bills, it makes sense that the standard deviations of the barbell portfolios is so much lower. The 2022 results, not captured above are also interesting. We can only get the last 11 months of 2022 but it is still interesting.

Portfolio Management 98

Portfolio Management Portfolio Management Taxes 98

Calculated Risk

JULY 22, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.23% in June The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.23% as of June 30, 2024. According to MBA’s estimate, 115,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.

Numbers 162

Numbers Portfolio Government Planning 162

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 2, 2025

We talk about this some but when you try to understand how well a holding has done or how well a portfolio has done, it is important to understand the track record. The Invenomic Fund (BIVIX) that we've looked at a few times is seriously skewed by two phenomenal years in 2021 and 2022 when it was up 61% and then 50%.

Portfolio 59

Portfolio Management Assets Banking 59

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Jim Bianco, Chief Strategist at Bianco Research, and His firm has been providing objective and unconventional research and commentary to portfolio managers since 1990, and it is top rated amongst institutional traders. It’s a state program.

Numbers 288

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 288

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 5, 2024

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that customer arbitration claims related to the SEC's Regulation Best Interest (Reg BI) nearly doubled between 2022 and 2023, suggesting that greater awareness among investors of the increased standards for broker-dealers and their (..)

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Fee Only Clients Investing 246

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 5, 2025

In 2022, it was up 104 basis points (total return). It is not intended to be a surrogate for a 60/40 portfolio, although it was close in 2024, and it clearly will not and is not intended to look like the US equity market. The correlation of the portfolio to the S&P 500 isn't that low at 0.64 The results were fascinating.

Portfolio 72

Portfolio Assets Management Government 72

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 26, 2024

Let's continue the conversation about all-weather generically and then the Cockroach Portfolio. First a comparison of the Permanent Portfolio Mutual Fund (PRPFX) versus a 60/40 portfolio comprised of two Vanguard mutual funds. Putting 20% in VIXM pretty much doomed that version of the portfolio.

Portfolio 93

Portfolio Management Banking Financial Planning 93

The Big Picture

JUNE 21, 2023

Their numbers are few – they are the exception that proves the rule. of publicly traded companies that put up those giant performance numbers over an extended period of time. A portfolio of passive low-cost indexes should make up the core of your holdings. John Neff, Julian Robertson, and Will Danoff round out the list.

Management 312

Management Investments Investing Numbers 312

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 19, 2024

The Trinity Replication captures some of the effect of the market longer term, maybe enough, maybe not enough, you can look at the other post to get more numbers, but that is what real diversification looks like. Both portfolios have higher standard deviations than the Trinity Replication but much higher returns.

Portfolio 93

Portfolio Accounting Clients Marketing 93

Carson Wealth

MAY 20, 2024

April inflation data confirmed there is no need to panic about the first-quarter numbers. Broad commodity prices are not surging like they did in 2022 (oil prices have fallen close to 10% since early April), which means a commodity-driven supply shock is not in the cards for now. That’s similar to the pace of 2019.

Numbers 97

Numbers Marketing Marketing Insurance 97

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MAY 20, 2025

First I asked it to suggest an all-weather portfolio that included managed futures. As we often see, a decent portfolio strategy this time from AI that can be improved upon. There are some interesting numbers in the Claude basket related to volatility and Sharpe Ratio. Both exchange portfolios held up much better in 2022.

Portfolio 59

Portfolio Portfolio Management Clients Management 59

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 3, 2025

I do not think a two or three fund portfolio is optimal but it is valid and I think it is hard to justify some sort of model with a lot of funds that results just like a 60/40 mutual fund like Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX). Portfolio 2 is plain vanilla 60/40. I think the great results in 2022 are skewing the entire backtest.

Portfolio 59

Portfolio Marketing Marketing Clients 59

David Nelson

JANUARY 3, 2023

Investors need to do their own due diligence and perform a full ORM review of their portfolio and its ability to navigate the many challenges we face at the start of a new year. The number of job openings could come in below 10 million but would still be elevated in comparison to pre-pandemic levels. Growth vs Value 2022.

Risk Management 98

Risk Management Portfolio Management Valuation 98

Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Resilience is Core to Sustainable Portfolio Construction. Wed, 09/21/2022 - 10:50. While the old adage “only time will tell” generally refers to a future outcome, it is apropos of our belief that a truly sustainable portfolio must consist of businesses that have proven to be resilient under a variety of macroeconomic circumstances.

Portfolio 86

Portfolio Manufacturing Investing Investments 86

Calculated Risk

JULY 18, 2022

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.81% in June The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 4 basis points from 0.85% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.81% as of June 30, 2022.

Portfolio 130

Portfolio Planning Government Numbers 130

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

First Meb Faber and Michael Gayed had a podcast that covered endowment style and permanent portfolio among other things. It seems like many endowments along with other types of sophisticated pools of capital are Permanent Portfolio inspired as Jason Buck said a couple of months ago. I believe there is a lot of overlap between the two.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Numbers Management Taxes 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 21, 2025

A fund like GAA seems like it could be looked to as a single fund portfolio. I put the following together to try to put the single fund portfolio idea into context. Portfolio 5 does give up CAGR versus VBAIX and PRPFX but the volatility is a good bit lower than the others and the drawdowns have been considerably lower than the others.

Asset Allocation 52

Asset Allocation Portfolio Assets Numbers 52

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

bloomberg.com) Bitcoin is at its highest level since June 2022. ft.com) Why where investors mark the portfolios can be all over the place. apricitas.io) There are a near-record number of housing units currently under construction. Markets The FTSE 100 Index has risen above 8,000 points for the first time ever.

Financial Advising 147

Financial Advising Engineering Valuation Retail 147

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 28, 2024

When they talked about portfolio allocations he said they want to have enough in managed futures to have an impact on the portfolio. He pegged that number at 25% or 33% but conceded even 5-10% could help. As we saw the other day, that dispersion between funds didn't prevent them from collectively going up a lot in 2022.

Risk Management 52

Risk Management Management Portfolio Numbers 52

The Chicago Financial Planner

FEBRUARY 3, 2022

Today’s decline is on top of high levels of market volatility that we’ve seen so far in 2022. My thoughts on how investors should react to this type of stock market decline haven’t changed since I first wrote this post a number of years ago. Proper diversification is great way to reduce investment risk. Go shopping

Asset Allocation 190

Asset Allocation Financial Planner Marketing Marketing 190

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MAY 15, 2025

The 75% number was put out there in jest.I We talked at length in 2022 and into 2023 when managed futures was booming and people were coming out of the woodwork to suggest huge weightings to managed futures which I said was a bad idea back then and is a bad idea right now in terms of constructing a portfolio.

Management 64

Management Accounting Clients Taxes 64