Carson Wealth

MARCH 11, 2024

For perspective, monthly job growth in 2019 averaged 166,000. To break it down, income growth across the economy is a sum of: Employment growth Wage growth Growth in hours worked Over the last three months, income growth has run at an annualized pace of 4.7%, putting it right at the 2018-2019 average. That is true, but 3.9%

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Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

million in 2019. The 10-year yield had been rising for a few months on the back of one strong economic data point after another, culminating in the third quarter GDP report, which showed the economy growing at 4.9%. And if economic growth is at risk, the Fed could act even more aggressively. Before the pandemic, this averaged 1.2-1.3%.

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Carson Wealth

MAY 15, 2023

In the face of banking and economic concerns, stocks are holding the line. Stocks tend to lead the economy, so just because the economic headlines are poor now doesn’t mean they will be in the future. Stocks continued to hang tough last week in the face of economic and banking worries. in April 2023.

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Carson Wealth

JULY 5, 2023

on a total return basis, which marked the best start since 2019; the NASDAQ total return was up 22.9%, which was the best start in 40 years; and the NASDAQ-100 total return was up an incredible 40.3%, marking the best start to a year in the index’s history. since last year, and this pace is higher than at any point in 2019.

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Carson Wealth

JULY 10, 2023

We continue to hear predictions of a stock market fall and economic recession, but we disagree with both assessments. As we noted last week, June 2023 marked the second-best six-month start for the S&P 500 this century, beaten only by 2019. The idea is to provide an early warning signal about economic turning points.

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Carson Wealth

JULY 17, 2023

Take note the other years they expected lower prices during the final six months of the year were 1999, 2019, 2020, and 2021. That’s still higher than the 2018-2019 average of about 3-3.5%. Perhaps the best news is that inflation is falling, and poised to fall even further, without a rise in unemployment and an economic slowdown.

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Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

annual pace, which is faster than the 2010-2019 pace of 1.2%. Economic output regained its pre-pandemic level by the first quarter of 2021, with 8 million fewer workers, which translated to higher productivity per worker. It’s also 40% above the 2010-2019 average and 4% above the 2005-2007 average.

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Carson Wealth

AUGUST 14, 2023

In addition, credit card debt as a percentage of disposable income is 21%, which is still lower than it was at the end of 2019, when it was 22%, and well beneath the 2003-2019 average of 26%. between 2018 and 2019, which was consistent with core inflation running at 2% (the Fed’s target). Shelter inflation averaged 3-3.5%

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Carson Wealth

AUGUST 28, 2023

Credit markets continue to show very few signs of economic stress. Recent economic data from China show that the world’s second largest economy is in trouble. Much of China’s economic growth is driven by real estate investment, which has pulled back significantly. and financial markets. per year between 2010 and 2019.

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Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 18, 2023

In their updated “ Summary of Economic Projections ,” they revised their estimates of core inflation for 2023 down from 3.7% Markets were off to the races after the Fed released its statement and economic projections. 3% in 2023 after adjusting for inflation, which would be above the 2010-2019 trend.

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Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 20, 2023

We reviewed the items that make up core services ex housing — about 105 in the PCE data — and calculated the distribution of year-over-year price increases in three periods: December 2019, before the pandemic September 2022, near peak inflation September 2023, the most recent data The chart below shows how the distribution has evolved.

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Carson Wealth

MAY 1, 2023

Equities closed out April in strong form amid better-than-expected earnings and resilient economic data. Don’t Be Fooled by Headline GDP The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the U.S. The good news is there is a measure of economic growth that excludes this volatility, which is shown in the last lines of the previous table.

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Carson Wealth

JUNE 5, 2023

Recent economic data do not point to a recession. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services. Instead, the economy is showing resilience.

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Carson Wealth

APRIL 8, 2024

For perspective, payroll growth averaged 166,000 in 2019. The good news is there’s nothing in the economic data that suggests we’re on the verge of a labor-market-induced inflation surge. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.

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Carson Wealth

MAY 13, 2024

Economic data remains supportive, according to the Carson Leading Economic Indicator, which is pointing to above-trend growth. This is why we have our own Carson Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) for the U.S. The banking system has held up, and economic growth has run ahead of the pre-pandemic 2010-2019 trend.

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Carson Wealth

MAY 6, 2024

So, it is likely that markets will continue to focus on the economic resilience and business resourcefulness that have been clearly demonstrated. It’s clear how inflation broadened out in June 2022 relative to December 2019. The picture for March 2024 looks closer to what it did in December 2019, rather than June 2022.

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Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 30, 2023

While economic growth may have peaked in the third quarter, we expect the economy to remain supportive. Consumer services and government spending are likely to remain strong contributors to growth in the final quarter of the year. Keep in mind the trajectory of economic growth was not a given, considering the scale of the shocks.

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Carson Wealth

MARCH 25, 2024

As Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast, my friends.” From the end of 2019 through March 15, 2024, the S&P 500 has gained 71%. Going into this meeting, a big question was whether Fed members would lower that projection to just two cuts in their summary of economic projections (the dot plot). But where did those 71 points come from?

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Carson Wealth

JULY 24, 2023

We just received a tremendous amount of data to round out the economic picture in the second quarter (Q2). All This Points to Strong Economic Growth The Atlanta Fed puts out a “nowcast” of quarterly real GDP growth that is updated with major economic data releases. It’s a Bird. It’s a Plane! It’s … the U.S. over the past year.

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Carson Wealth

AUGUST 21, 2023

Vehicle production is now higher than it was at any point in 2019. Resilient Economy May Be Accelerating Another month, another slew of economic data that not only shows the economy is resilient, but also that it may be accelerating. Retail sales and food services rose 0.7% The current season is historically weak for stocks.

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2023

Let me say what your compliance wouldn’t allow you to say. SEIDES: Yeah, I wouldn’t measure it in terms of economic returns. If you’re giving up that 1% big fat yield in 2019, 2021, let’s say you give up three years of 1% and get zero, how does the math work over the subsequent couple of years?

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Sara Grillo

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

Nothing in this podcast or blog can be interpreted as legal or compliance advice. For advise on such matters, contact a legal or compliance advisor. Prior to joining Advocacy Wealth Management in 2022, Robert served in a variety of positions at Fidelity Investments and Morgan Stanley as a Financial Consultant. 2019, July 30).

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

And so the idea is that, what I’ve heard is like, hey, we’re going into a recession or a weak economic period so therefore everybody’s going to go into work four and a half days a week because they want face time with their boss. And you definitely have some industries or some companies that want five days a week right now.

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Carson Wealth

APRIL 22, 2024

Economic Growth Remains Solid, As Does the Outlook While inflation data for Q1 was hot, albeit for idiosyncratic reasons, we also received the following: Strong employment data, with payroll growth accelerating from last year and layoffs low. For perspective, the 2010-2019 average pace was 2.4%. That is above 3.5% public and private.

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