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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

capitalspectator.com) The credit markets are very different than they were in 2009. aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com) How to make the math behind home ownership work (or not). (behaviouralinvestment.com) Why selling a stock is harder than buying. flyoverstocks.com) Bond investors are being given an opportunity to lock in 2% real yields.

Math 278
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Catastrophizing Debt

The Big Picture

The US population today is 341,814,420; in 2009 it was 308,512,035. Economy in 2022 was $25,439.70B; in 2009, it was $14,478.06B; ignore that also? from 2009, and by 2024 you get (wait for it) $193.44T. Do we simply ignore the growth in the size of the economy and the U.S. population? Do we just ignore that?

Economy 347
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The “Art” of Market Timing

The Big Picture

The dotcom top, the double bottom in Oct 02-March 03; the highs in 2007, the lows 2009. 24, 2023 _ 1: In particular, why average outperforms over the long run; Sommers credits not making errors (via Charlie Ellis’ “Winning the Loser’s Game”) but the nuance and math are fascinating. By Jeff Sommer New York Times, Nov.

Marketing 304
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MiB: Jeffrey Sherman, DoubleLine Deputy CIO

The Big Picture

Prior to joining DoubleLine in 2009, Sherman was a senior vice president at TCW Group Inc. We discuss how he began as a math major but didn’t want to go into physics, engineering or academia, so finance was the next logical career option. He is host of the podcast The Sherman Show and a CFA charter holder.

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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Ken Griffin’s Hand-Picked Math Prodigy Runs Market-Making Empire : Citadel Securities CEO Peng Zhao left for college at age 14, caught Griffin’s eye early in his career and built systems now mopping up market share. Social Leverage recently launched its 4th fund.

Math 147
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At the Money: Meb Faber on Tax Aware ETFs

The Big Picture

Listeners think to 2009, the bottom, at the bottom, um, stocks have almost been a 10 bagger. And the way math works, you end up with a stock that goes up a bunch. We’ve done the math on some of these high-yield portfolios and taxable accounts. And that’s the broad market.

Taxes 130
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Do Long-Term Investors Need (Long-Term) Bonds?

The Irrelevant Investor

I would agree with Ben's thoughts, which is that the math says no, but the psychological constraints say yes. By June 2009*, stocks had trailed long-term government bonds over the previous 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 years. Since June 2009, stocks are up 250%, long-term government bonds are up 60%.