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Should You Worry About “Recession” Risk?

Discipline Funds

On one side you have optimists who have been saying that the US economy remains robust and on the other side you have pessimists who are worried about recession and a potential 2008 scenario. In our view we’re still in the “muddle through” camp as it pertains to the economy.

Economy 92
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Equity markets at a crossroads – What is the way forward?

Truemind Capital

After the subprime crisis in 2008, many developed countries’ Central Banks started printing money and flooding the global economies with cheap liquidity. The liquidity support since 2008 and massive stimulus post March 2020 has inflated all the asset prices be it equity, debt, or real estate. But first a quick recap.

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Market remarkably resilient given banking sector challenges

Nationwide Financial

Over the past four weeks, money markets have added $300 billion, on par with surges in 2008 and 2020, bringing the total to a record $5.1 Fund managers remain historically conservative per Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey showing asset allocators long cash and short equities.

Banking 98
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Weekend Reading – Is Inflation Dead?

Discipline Funds

Not only do we know that shelter is making inflation look irrationally high, but we also know that the most important retailers in the US economy are saying exactly what the CPI ex-shelter says. In other words, if you’re 65 in 2007 and 100% invested in stocks and then 2008 happens then you end up going back to work until you’re at least 70.

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Market volatility: Reminder to prepare for downturns

SEI

Investments and economy. We are currently experiencing one of the most volatile times in decades, on top of the start of the pandemic and the 2008-2009 recession. Setting a strategic asset allocation and stress testing it, as part of the risk management exercise, is a critical component in “pre-experiencing” such downturns.

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Consumer Wallets Strong, Rate Hikes Long, What Could Go Wrong?

Investing Caffeine

Cash in consumer wallets and money in the bank help the economy keep chugging along at a healthy clip. As you can see, the inventory of homes has dramatically collapsed from a peak of about four million homes, circa the 2008 Financial Crisis, to around one million homes today. households has reached a record $154.3

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The Known Unknowns

The Irrelevant Investor

When all was said and done it fell 1.4%, making today the worst opening day since 2008. What the optimal asset allocation will be over the next twelve months. How fast or slow the economy will expand or contract. The S&P 500 (SPY) opened down 1.66%, fell another 0.95% and then rallied 1.2% into the close.