The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

And speaking of the.com implosion, like Microsoft via a case study where we, in previous strategies, we held Microsoft for a very long time, that’s where the valuation could help us in the.com bus. 00:21:26 [Speaker Changed] In isolation quality on average gives you downside protection, certainly did in 2007, eight for example.

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Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 22, 2015

From telecommunications companies in 2000, to homebuilders in 2007, to coal mining companies in 2014, recent history offers plenty of cautionary tales for high-yield investors. The trap often appears when the economy is at the end of its cycle and nearing a downturn. Here are our thoughts on how to avoid such “value traps.”.

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Brown Advisory

APRIL 1, 2015

In Engines That Move Markets, a 2002 book about the cycles of technology investing, Alasdair Nairn defines “bubbles” as periods when investors appear to suspend rational valuation, much as they had during the dotcom craze shortly before the book was published. economy following the financial crisis. Possible Signs.

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Brown Advisory

NOVEMBER 12, 2019

Among the concerns breeding skepticism about the economy and the markets are on-again/off-again trade negotiations, disruption of supply chains, declines in manufacturing activity, and sluggish capital spending. economy that may restrain the country's ability to grow at rates considered normal over the last several decades.

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Brown Advisory

NOVEMBER 12, 2019

Among the concerns breeding skepticism about the economy and the markets are on-again/off-again trade negotiations, disruption of supply chains, declines in manufacturing activity, and sluggish capital spending. economy that may restrain the country's ability to grow at rates considered normal over the last several decades.

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James Hendries

JUNE 20, 2023

As the economy is likely downshifting, investors should take heed that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current stance is eerily similar to early 2007. During that time, the Fed held a tightening bias since they believed the housing market was stabilizing, the economy would continue to expand, and inflation risks remained.

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Mr. Money Mustache

MAY 20, 2022

And just to amplify everything even further, China has launched a batshit crazy (and medically impossible) “zero covid” policy, locking down hundreds of millions of its own people who can no longer produce or export the things that the rest of the world’s economy had grown to rely upon. the current blowup) -20% so far What’s your guess?

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Brown Advisory

MARCH 30, 2020

Liquidity in Public Markets: A Decade of Decline Equity trading volume has declined markedly since the financial crisis (top chart); meanwhile, dealer trading volume relative to the size of the corporate bond universe has fallen from 60% in 2007 to less than 10% today (bottom chart). An index constituent must also be considered a U.S.

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Brown Advisory

MARCH 30, 2020

Equity trading volume has declined markedly since the financial crisis (top chart); meanwhile, dealer trading volume relative to the size of the corporate bond universe has fallen from 60% in 2007 to less than 10% today (bottom chart). Source: BLOOMBERG. . Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. ILLIQUIDITY IMPACTS. company.

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The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

CHANCELLOR: And look — yeah, but then if you look at the valuation of the market at that time, the market was — the U.S. CHANCELLOR: And look — yeah, but then if you look at the valuation of the market at that time, the market was — the U.S. And then I was having lunch with Jeremy in Boston.

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Bell Investment Advisors

MARCH 15, 2023

But at the same time, you can imagine that if rates are going higher because the economy is really good and our profits on our stocks are going up, that effect of higher profits can actually overwhelm the suppressive effect of higher rates. economy actually grew three and a half times. 23:57 So, over this time period, the U.S.

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Brown Advisory

AUGUST 6, 2019

housing in 2007) or a spike in oil prices (1973, 1980 and 1990)—conditions that are not present today. Additionally, the Australian economy has not experienced a recession since 1991. Valuations are elevated but nowhere near the bubble levels of the late 1990s. GDP than it was 100 years ago.

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Brown Advisory

AUGUST 6, 2019

housing in 2007) or a spike in oil prices (1973, 1980 and 1990)—conditions that are not present today. Additionally, the Australian economy has not experienced a recession since 1991. Valuations are elevated but nowhere near the bubble levels of the late 1990s. GDP than it was 100 years ago.

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James Hendries

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

Since then, value has outperformed growth for the longest sustained period since 2003–2007. The monetary factor is the factor we are focused on, as the two periods of sustained value outperformance in the last 20 years (now, and 2003-2007) coincide with the last two periods when both market interest rates (measured by the 10-year U.S.

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James Hendries

AUGUST 23, 2022

Given the lag between Federal Reserve (Fed) policy and the real economy, we have not likely seen the bottom in the housing market. Outside of the pandemic, the rate of sales were close to sales rates in 2007 and 2008, when the economy was in the depths of a housing crisis [Figure 3]. Regional differences are profound.

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Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

stocks powered out of the toxic storm of ever-rising interest rates and inflation into a the spectacular market rebound of 2023 as the prospects of a soft(er) landing for the economy grew more probable. The emerging markets asset class outperformed all others in 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009, while finishing second in 2004, 2006, and 2012.

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 17, 2023

Then the volatility and, and the valuation makes an enormous difference. You joined in 2007, what led you there? Their randomness and, and you know, they hit, had a few hits also all the, all the valuation went up right to, to fairly extreme levels. So this is more like the real economy, slower growth businesses.

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Brown Advisory

JANUARY 19, 2023

at year-end can largely explain the compression in valuation, especially for higher multiple equities, primarily during the first half of the year. Great Financial Crisis October 2007 April 2009 -39.0% at the beginning of the year to 16.6x by year-end. The rise in the 10-year Treasury yield from 1.5% to nearly 3.9% company.

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Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

The initial optimism over a Fed pivot has shifted following strong economic data, elevated inflation, and hawkish Fed commentary, sending interest rates higher and valuations lower. The short-covering rally has stalled, as pessimism remains near-universal for institutional investors, and a surge in rates drove skepticism over valuations.

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Brown Advisory

OCTOBER 18, 2019

We know that equity valuations in the U.S. CURRENT VALUATION PREMIUMS, S&P 500 INDEX Metric Most Recent Long-Term Average Premium vs. Average Timeframe Trailing P/E 19.4 CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index, 1/1/2007-8/30/2019 Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). 17% 3/31/1954- 9/30/2019 Price/Book Value 3.4

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Brown Advisory

OCTOBER 18, 2019

We know that equity valuations in the U.S. CURRENT VALUATION PREMIUMS, S&P 500 INDEX. In the years after the 2008-09 financial crisis, securities tended to trade in lockstep with each other as the market focused most of its attention on the big-picture health of the economy. Most Recent. Long-Term Average. Premium vs. Average.

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Brown Advisory

JUNE 12, 2017

In the last 10 years, 2007 through 2016, Berkshire’s shareholders’ equity per share and share price compounded at roughly 9.3% Since May 2007, Buffett estimated Berkshire had compounded its intrinsic value at roughly 10%, but he thought 10% would be difficult to achieve in the next decade if interest rates stay as low as they are currently.

Investing 52

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Brown Advisory

JUNE 12, 2017

In the last 10 years, 2007 through 2016, Berkshire’s shareholders’ equity per share and share price compounded at roughly 9.3% Since May 2007, Buffett estimated Berkshire had compounded its intrinsic value at roughly 10%, but he thought 10% would be difficult to achieve in the next decade if interest rates stay as low as they are currently.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

I found this to be just a masterclass in everything you need to know about distressed credit investing, private credit, the role of the economy, the fed interest rates, inflation, bottoms up, credit picking, and how to manage a firm and a fund in light of just massive dislocations in your space, as well as the overall economy.

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 14, 2022

MCCARTHY: And that’s because real estate in strong economies can generate a basically very strong alpha in weaker times or in an inflationary environment we’re in right now. Let’s talk about things that it doesn’t matter necessarily what the economy is doing. RITHOLTZ: Right. Let’s talk about warehouses.

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Brown Advisory

JULY 1, 2016

One can argue that today’s low interest rates merit even higher valuations, but there’s no disputing that the increase in price/earnings ratios has been an important driver of stocks since the lows of the early 1980s. Following the 2007–2008 financial crisis, some observers began referring to the “new normal.” company.

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Brown Advisory

JULY 1, 2016

One can argue that today’s low interest rates merit even higher valuations, but there’s no disputing that the increase in price/earnings ratios has been an important driver of stocks since the lows of the early 1980s. Following the 2007–2008 financial crisis, some observers began referring to the “new normal.” company.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train reads: • Into Perspective: The US Auto Labor Dispute and Recession Worries : Partial work stoppages can impact local economies, but the national effect should be minimal. ( Investors are looking with renewed skepticism at valuations commanded by market leaders. Blame Covid.

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The Irrelevant Investor

JANUARY 3, 2020

The Good For the first time since 2007, the income generated in a cash investment account outpaced inflation. If you were afraid that Trump was going to crash the economy in 2016, and that Obama was going to crash it prior to that, then you missed out on one of the greatest runs in stock market history. This chart is why.

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The Big Picture

APRIL 18, 2023

In the short run, there can be distortions in public market valuations as we saw in 2001 and we saw prior to that in 2007, and prior to that in 2000, in ‘99. BARATTA: Wind, solar, electrifying the economy, getting off of oil and gas, and it’s all kinds of companies engaged. BARATTA: Yeah. In the long run. RITHOLTZ: Right.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

And we’d sort of turn that into a valuation business. MILLER: Well actually I thought, leading up to the great financial crisis, I thought to myself, we’re going to be out of business within a couple of years because nobody wanted an independent valuation. What are the, you know, I’d literally have it in my handheld.

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The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 20, 2024

There are few people in the world who understand the interrelationships between central banks, the economy, and markets like Bill Dudley does this, this is just a master class in, in understanding all the factors that affect everything from the economy to inflation, to the labor market, the housing market, and of course, federal Reserve policy.

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Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 141

The Big Picture

APRIL 11, 2023

 The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Aswath Damodaran: Valuations, Narratives & Academia , is below. You’re known as the dean of valuation. He said, oh, dean of valuation, it’s easier to say. So let’s start with the question, what led you to focus on valuation? RITHOLTZ: Right. And I said, why?

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David Nelson

MAY 8, 2023

Patience Investors are generally not a patient breed but the overriding challenge for the broad market is the following: Bloomberg Data Stocks don’t live in a vacuum and most valuation models start with the risk-free rate which is now the highest since 2007. And therein lies the bullish case.

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Banking Valuation Economy Insurance 52

The Big Picture

MARCH 12, 2024

And we’ve automated the, the appraisal process for valuation, both intrinsic value, meaning like, where would we pay it, where would we buy it, and where is the fair market price that asset from that level, from price and from consumer behavior now. We’ve gathered up all the information you would need to do an appraisal.

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The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 21, 2023

I would say the thing that connects them is just voracious curiosity about the world of politics and, you know, economies and trying to make sense out of it. I had just gotten married in the fall of 2007. It was about $170 million valuation. I do think when I look for analysts today, I look for interesting backgrounds.

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