Calculated Risk

MARCH 27, 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% In the January Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 71% above the bubble peak in 2006. That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.

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Calculated Risk

APRIL 30, 2024

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for February ("February" is a 3-month average of December, January and February closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. census divisions, reported a 6.4%

Assets 119

Assets 119

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2023

Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period both contracts were available. We didn't see a significant runup in prices this Spring due to the housing slowdown.

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A Wealth of Common Sense

FEBRUARY 25, 2024

People were forecasting for a 20% drop in housing prices in 2022. Prices had shot up 50% in three years. And all we got was a wimpy 2-3% dip in prices. The housing market wasn’t supposed to remain this strong. It made sense at the time. Everyone was predicting a recession. The Fed was jacking up interest rates.

Marketing 111

Marketing Marketing 111

Advisor Perspectives

APRIL 11, 2024

The producer price index for final demand increased 0.2% Wholesale inflation heated up last month but came in slightly lower than expected. month-over-month (s.a.). On an annual basis, headline PPI accelerated from 1.6% in February to 2.1% in March.

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Calculated Risk

APRIL 29, 2024

30 year fixed 7.43% ] emphasis added Tuesday: • At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for February. Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for February. Things could end up changing quite a bit by the end of this week owing to a slew of important events and economic reports. [ The consensus is for a 6.7%

Economics 58

Economics Sales Management 58

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 1, 2024

In the November Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 70% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 10% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).

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Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2024

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Declined in February Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were down in February compared to January. The non-adjusted price in February increased by 1.7% compared to January, moving the unadjusted average price down 11.0%

Consulting 134

Consulting Retail Taxes Economics 134

Calculated Risk

MARCH 26, 2024

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average of November, December and January closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. census divisions, reported a 6.0%

Assets 128

Assets 128

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 27, 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.5% year-over-year in December; FHFA: House Prices Up 6.5% Q4 over Q4 Excerpt: S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing prices).

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Calculated Risk

MARCH 28, 2024

And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%. PCE prices are expected to be up 2.5% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.8% Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending.

Banking 105

Banking Marketing Marketing 105

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 1, 2023

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 6.9% In the September Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 69% above the bubble peak in 2006. above the bubble peak levels.

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Advisor Perspectives

APRIL 30, 2024

Gas prices inched down from last week. As of April 29th, the price of regular and premium gas fell 2 and 1 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $82.63, up 0.9% from last week.

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The Irrelevant Investor

MAY 2, 2024

The post The Compound and Friends: Priced to Perfection appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor.

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Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices See Smaller Decline in October Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 2.2% The non-adjusted price change in October was a decline of 2.1% compared to September, moving the unadjusted average price down 9.3%

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Consulting Sales 145

Calculated Risk

APRIL 23, 2024

million SAAR in March; Median House Prices Increased 4.8% Year-over-Year , I noted that median prices were up year-over-year (median prices are distorted by the mix). Seasonally prices typically peak in June (closed sales are mostly for contracts signed in April and May). Note: In 2019, prices only declined 3.8%

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Sales 61

Advisor Perspectives

MAY 1, 2024

Rowe Price, and the greatest value investor of all time, Warren Buffett. The most interesting thing about 1968-1969 was the agreement about the stock market future between the greatest growth investor at that time, T.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing 52

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 30, 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.1% year-over-year in November Excerpt: S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices).

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Calculated Risk

MARCH 26, 2024

Two key points: 1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices. This was because distressed sales (at lower price points) happened at a steady rate all year, while regular sales followed the normal seasonal pattern. 2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.

Sales 101

Sales 101

Calculated Risk

JUNE 16, 2023

Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons. There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May. There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May. LBR is currently at $522 per 1000 board feet.

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Advisor Perspectives

FEBRUARY 27, 2024

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) continued to increase in December, coming in at 417.9. house prices increased by 0.1% from the previous month and by 6.6% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index was flat month-over-month and up 4.6% year-over-year.

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 17, 2023

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Homebuilder Price Cuts A brief excerpt: A short note on homebuilder price cuts courtesy of Rick Palacios Jr., Most builders have dropped prices -6% to -10%. Director of Research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting (a must follow for housing on twitter!):

Consulting 101

Consulting Marketing Marketing 101

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 30, 2023

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.6% In the June Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006. increase).

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Advisor Perspectives

APRIL 10, 2024

Consumer prices rose more than expected in March as inflation heated up for a second straight month. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline figure for the Consumer Price Index rose to 3.5% year-over-year while core CPI remained at 3.8%. Both readings came in higher than their respective forecasts.

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The Irrelevant Investor

JULY 19, 2022

in June, the highest reading since 1981 The national average for gasoline topped $5 a gallon for the first time 33% of listed homes have cut their prices Home builder confidence fell to the lowest levels since May 2020 30-year mortgage rates hit 5.8%, the highest s. The post What’s Priced In? Inflation rose 9.1%

Economics 124

Economics Marketing Marketing 124

Calculated Risk

MARCH 5, 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% In the December Case-Shiller house price index released last week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 70% above the bubble peak in 2006. That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.

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Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 7, 2024

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Flat in January Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were unchanged in January compared to December. The non-adjusted price in January declined by 0.2% compared to December, moving the unadjusted average price down 9.3%

Consulting 117

Consulting Taxes Economics Sales 117

A Wealth of Common Sense

DECEMBER 9, 2022

Nationwide price declines in the housing market are relatively rare. Since 1987, there have been just three times when the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index has been in a state of drawdown: The first was in the early-1990s when housing prices fell a little more than 2% nationally. Now prices are dipping again.

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing 143

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 27, 2024

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. census divisions, reported a 5.5%

Accounting 120

Accounting Assets Marketing Marketing 120

Advisor Perspectives

MARCH 26, 2024

Gas prices increased for a fourth straight week, jumping to their highest level since October. As of March 25th, the prices of regular and premium gas each increased 7 cents from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $81.95, down 0.3% from last week.

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Advisor Perspectives

MARCH 19, 2024

Gas prices increased for a third straight week, jumping to their highest level in over four months. As of March 18th, the prices of regular and premium gas increased 8 cents and 7 cents from the previous week, respectively. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $82.16, up 5.4% from last week.

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2023

million SAAR in December , I mentioned that the median price was down more than normal seasonally. Seasonally prices typically peak in June (closed sales for contracts signed mostly in April and May). And seasonally prices usually bottom the following January (contracts signed in November and December).

Sales 145

Sales 145

Validea

APRIL 2, 2024

Validea’s Twin Momentum strategy is based on the research paper “Twin Momentum” by Dashan Huang, Huacheng Zhang, Guofu Zhou, and Yingzi Zhu, which explores the effectiveness of combining price momentum and fundamental momentum in stock selection. The concept of price momentum is well-known in the investment world.

Assets 59

Assets Portfolio Investing Investments 59

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 13, 2023

Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period both contracts were available. We didn't see a significant runup in prices this Spring due to the housing slowdown.

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Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2023

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.6% year-over-year in August; New all-time High Excerpt: S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August ("August" is a 3-month average of June, July and August closing prices).

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Advisor Perspectives

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index (HPI) continued its climb in July, coming in at 409.5. house prices increased by 0.8% from the previous month and by 4.6% from one year ago. After adjusting for inflation, the real index is up 0.8% month-over-month and up 3.4% year-over-year.

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Advisor Perspectives

MARCH 5, 2024

Gas prices jumped to their highest level since November this past week. As of March 4th, the prices of regular and premium gas each increased 10 cents from the previous week. The WTIC end-of-day spot price for crude oil closed at $78.74, up 1.5% from last week.

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