Sat.Nov 19, 2022 - Fri.Nov 25, 2022

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The 2-10 Yield Curve Inversion Recession Signal is the Strongest in Over 40 Years

Mish Talk

Data from US Treasury, calculation and chart by Mish. Chart Synopsis There was no 30-year long bond issuance in the yellow highlighted interval. The 10-year to 3-month inversion is 64 basis points, the deepest since January of 2001.

Budgeting 271
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Which is Worse: Inflation or Unemployment?

The Big Picture

You may have missed this wonderful Josh Zumbrun column in the Wall Street Journal last week: “ Inflation and Unemployment Both Make You Miserable, but Maybe Not Equally.”. It’s one of those things that are so obvious no one ever stops to think about it – and so we have overlooked this for decades.

Budgeting 253
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Past Performance

The Reformed Broker

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Of course it isn’t. Things change. Especially if we’re referring to the past performance of a particular investment strategy, portfolio manager, mutual fund or individual stock.

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Friday links: old patterns

Abnormal Returns

Markets How do stocks beat inflation? thereformedbroker.com) The S&P 500 is not the economy. awealthofcommonsense.com) FTX Is the FTX blow up the end of crypto? economist.com) Why did so many people have a blind spot for FTX?

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The CPA Firm Growth Strategy: From Compliance to Consulting

Speaker: Rita Keller - President of Keller Advisors, LLC

Join Rita Keller, seasoned CPA firm management strategist and consultant, for an insightful discussion on the importance of diversifying your accounting skills.

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Bitcoin Hits a New 52-Week Low, Where to From Here?

Mish Talk

Bitcoin daily chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com. I have been making notes, some of them incorrectly. Apologies offered. Generational Bottoms Bitcoin is Life Hoot of the Day (From May 2022). Hmm 6 months is up. On May 8, Bitcoin was $34,000. It's now under $16,000.

More Trending

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Establishing Solo 401(k) Plans For Self-Employed Workers: Options, Contribution Limits, Deadlines, And More!

Nerd's Eye View

Among the several different types of retirement plans that are available to self-employed workers, solo 401(k) plans can offer the most flexibility and the ability to contribute the highest amount of tax-advantaged savings.

Planning 193
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Wednesday links: narrow future events

Abnormal Returns

Strategy The normalization of interest rates is going to change how people invest. blairbellecurve.com) Why investors overreact to recent fund performance. behaviouralinvestment.com) Why wealthy investor don't invest aggressively enough.

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US Composite PMI Suggests the Economy is On the Verge of Recession

Mish Talk

Demand Weakness Weighs On private sector business activity in November The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI™ shows and escalation in private sector demand weakness. Key Findings Flash US PMI Composite Output Index at 46.3 October: 48.2). 3-month low.

Economy 236
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10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • The Rise of Influencer Capital : How social media, celebrity promoters, and banks looking for a quick buck transformed the markets. ( New York Magazine ).

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Book of Secrets for the Month-End Close

Developing a consistent month-end close doesn’t need to be a mystery. We’re sharing our top 10 secrets (plus one bonus!) for streamlining your close.

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This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

We made some industry news this week with the hiring of Ritholtz Wealth Management’s first President. You can read about it at Investment News here. And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. .

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Podcast links: revisiting Moneyball

Abnormal Returns

The biz Spotify's ($SPOT) Anchor now allows creators to use a 'one-button voice isolation feature.' engadget.com) You have to invest upfront to create evergreen content. casted.us) Companies Ben Thompson talks housing with Eric Wu, CEO of Opendoor ($OPEN).

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Under Pressure From the US, EU Agrees to Cap the Price of Russian Oil

Mish Talk

Image from Tweet Below. Bickering Over the Cap The EU agreed to scrap its plan to not insure tankers carrying Russian oil in favor of a Biden-sponsored plan to cap the price of oil. The insurance scheme was absurd. Russia would have exported oil in tankers not insured.

Insurance 221
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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • The Best 50-Year-Old Investing Advice Money Can Buy : Nearly 50 years ago, the economist Burton Malkiel came out with a book that said, in effect, that all of us should be in index funds.

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Quick Guide to Digital Lending for Regional & Community Banks

Ever wonder how some regional and community banks are able to outperform their larger rivals? One of the biggest keys to this success lies in digital transformation. In fact, digital lending technologies are helping banks make the transition faster so they can compete more effectively. Read this eBook to learn how to use lending technology to transform your bank’s outcomes, too!

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#FA Success Ep 308: Accelerating Growth From Referrals By Building Checklists For Every Meeting Detail, With Matthew Blocki

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 308th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Matthew Blocki.

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Sunday links: grand visions

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Five reasons for optimism, including 'expected returns are rising.' humbledollar.com) It's easy to forget that U.S. equities don't always outperform international equities. savantwealth.com) Lessons learned from the young Warren Buffett.

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Ahead of Recession, California Faces a $25 Billion Budget Problem With Ongoing Deficits

Mish Talk

Please consider California's Fiscal Outlook for 2023-2024. Executive Summary Economic Conditions Weigh on Revenues.

Budgeting 220
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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • VCs Poured $41 Billion Into Crypto in the Past 18 Months. Is There Any Hope for a Profit? Investors face tough questions following the FTX debacle. Institutional Investor ).

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Top 7 Global Employment Challenges

Global expansion brings many opportunities for companies. However, there are pitfalls along the way that can slow down progress. In this eBook, we look at the 7 key challenges to global growth, and ways to minimize expansion headaches.

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Increasing Financial Planning Efficiency With A Systematized Annual Process

Nerd's Eye View

A common service model for many financial advisory firms is to schedule annual client meetings throughout the year where the advisor meets with each client in the month they started working with the firm, and conducts a comprehensive review of all planning topics for the client.

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Monday links: taking short positions

Abnormal Returns

Strategy The best uncorrelated asset in a downturn is mindset. thewaiterspad.com) Why you should spend as little time on investing as possible. moontower.substack.com) Crypto Coinbase ($COIN) is feeling the effects of the FTX blowup.

Startup 172
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President Biden, the UN, and the Climate Lobby Seek to Spread More Fossil Fuel Misery

Mish Talk

Please consider these COP 27 Closing Statements by the Secretary-General. COP27 took place not far from Mount Sinai, a site that is central to many faiths and to the story of Moses, or Musa. It’s fitting. Climate chaos is a crisis of biblical proportions.

Taxes 216
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10 Thanksgiving Day Reads

The Big Picture

My morning train WFH reads: • 10 Things for Crypto People to Say at Thanksgiving This Year : It’s going to be an awkward conversation. Use these phrases to preserve your reputation. Bloomberg ). •

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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by speeding up the month-end close and better managing your remote teams.

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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Final Trades: Halliburton, Restaurant Brands, Kinder Morgan & more from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site Don't borrow money to invest. abnormalreturns.com) Humans have been consuming alcohol for millennia, but people are increasingly saying no. abnormalreturns.com) Life is complicated, your workout doesn't have to be.

Economics 164
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Meet Queen Caroline and Other Characters in the Stunning Collapse of FTX

Mish Talk

Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison, image from Tweet below. Inside Sam Bankman-Fried’s Doomed FTX Empire The Wall Street Journal takes a look Inside Sam Bankman-Fried’s Doomed FTX Empire That's a free link. Here are a few snips.

License 194
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Climate Trace: Tracking Emissions

The Big Picture

A comprehensive look at CO2 emissions around the world and their specific sources: “Today, the Climate TRACE coalition released the most detailed facility-level global inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to date, including emissions data for 72,612 individual sources worldwide.

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5 Reasons Banks Need a Digital SBA Lending Program Now

A digital-first strategy for SBA loans is required for community banks that want to grow.

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People hate inflation, but unemployment is worse

The Reformed Broker

Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including: ?Bob

Investing 130
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Personal finance links: repeatable systems

Abnormal Returns

Avoiding ruin Building wealth means avoiding ruin. dariusforoux.com) Don't borrow money to invest. abnormalreturns.com) Investing Successful investing is boring. onveston.substack.com) Why 'Is now a good time to invest?' is the wrong question. monevator.com) You can't invest if you don't save.

Math 141
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Don't Fall for the Black Friday Deals, Spend More Time With Friends and Family

Mish Talk

Welcome Change Major retailers like Kohl’s, Target, Macy’s, Walmart, J.C. Penney, Best Buy, even Costco will be closed on Thanksgiving day but open as early as 5 a.m. or 6 a.m. on Black Friday according to BlackFriday.Com. That’s a welcome change but it puts all the more emphasis on Black Friday.