Sat.Oct 29, 2022 - Fri.Nov 04, 2022

The Many Ways the FOMC Can Be Wrong…

The Big Picture

Since it is late on a Friday, I thought I might share some quick thoughts about the week. I have been wondering, more than usual, about the disconnect between what we see in falling prices and the Federal Reserve’s anti-inflation actions.

Help me feed a few thousand families this Thanksgiving

The Reformed Broker

Here’s the deal – during the pandemic I wanted to do a book signing for the fans when we released How I Invest My Money. Obviously, travel and meet and greets weren’t going to happen, so we had to improvise.

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Monday links: old finance articles

Abnormal Returns

Small caps Small caps are outperforming of late. allstarcharts.com) And valuations are still attractive. gmo.com) Strategy The past two years help show the agony and ecstasy of stock picking.

Lost in the Strong Jobs Meme, Full Time Employment is Down 572,000 Since May

Mish Talk

Payroll and employment data from the BLS, chart by Mish. Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Monthly Payroll Report. Initial Thoughts The discrepancy between jobs and employment continues for the seventh month. Last month the unemployment rate fell 0.2 percent to a record low 3.5

Best Practices to Ace Your Close

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Whether you’re on a 1-day close or a 10-day close, there are some fundamental commonalities that all strong accounting departments share when it comes to the month-end close. Please join us for an informative webinar where we share best practices that your team can implement today to ace your close.

Behind the Curve, Part V

The Big Picture

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the FOMC increased the Fed Funds Rate another 75 bps yesterday, to 3.75-4.0%. Markets have given back much of October’s gains fairly quickly. I have been turning this over slowly in my mind, trying to assess their thinking here.

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Wednesday links: sub-optimal portfolios

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Investing is ultimately based on optimism. fortunesandfrictions.com) Medical knowledge builds on itself. Financial knowledge not so much. collabfund.com) Five arguments against a value stock revival.

Hoot of the Day: Russian Oil Gets to US Via Sanction Loophole

Mish Talk

Image composite from WSJ video below. The Wall Street Journal has an interesting video that describes How Russian Crude Avoids Sanctions and Ends Up in the US. With an upfront ad, that is a free WSJ video link. The Lukoil Connection. Image composite from WSJ video.

When Your Only Tool is a Hammer…

The Big Picture

Today and tomorrow the Federal Reserve will hold its 7th Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year. It is given that we will see a 75-basis point increase Wednesday, but what gets said about the meeting on December 13-14 is even more important.

No pivot!

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Carleton English, Scott Krisiloff, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss the latest from Powell and the Fed, earnings season, the wisdom of Warren Buffett, junk bonds, 2008 vs today, nuclear fusion, and much more!

Global Hiring Guide for Startups

Grow your startup beyond borders and boundaries. In this eBook, you’ll discover how you can gain a competitive edge over your business rivals through the latest technology, harnessing global contractors, and using a global employment platform.

Sunday links: expectation gaps

Abnormal Returns

Markets The Dow is trouncing the Nasdaq in 2022. theirrelevantinvestor.com) The muni bond market is having its worst year in decades. barrons.com) Strategy Ben Carlson, "No single strategy works always and forever."

Pending Home Sales Slump 31 Percent From Year Ago, 10.2 Percent in September

Mish Talk

Pending home sales chart courtesy of Trading Economics. Understanding Pending Sales New homes are reported at contract closing. Existing home sales are reported at closing. Pending sales represent contracts signed but not closed.

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Bean Box coffee, grab a seat on the sofa, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • Crypto Story Where it came from, what it all means, and why it still matters by Matt Levine.

Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Final Trades: Waste Connections, Boeing & Zillow from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker

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Redefining Wealth: Money Management, FinTech, Inclusion, and Belonging

Speaker: Marguerita Cheng - Chief Executive Officer at Blue Ocean Global Wealth

Join Marguerita Cheng for an engaging conversation on rethinking the concept of wealth and how everyone can benefit from professional money management.

Thursday links: the realm of consensus

Abnormal Returns

Companies Why is Zuck betting the company on the metaverse? wsj.com) More tech companies are engaging in layoffs including Lyft ($LYFT). wsj.com) Finance On the end of the SPAC boom. morningstar.com) How signaling happens in the options market.

UN Seeks $4 to 6 Trillion Per Year to Address Climate

Mish Talk

Finance Flows from UN Report. Scaremongering Continues The Guardian reports UN finds ‘no credible pathway to 1.5C

Globalization In Retreat

The Big Picture

While the FOMC was doing its thing (more on that tomorrow), I stumbled across the fascinating chart above from PIIE. They note: Economic integration rebounded after the Second World War and continued to increase for the latter half of the 20th century.

Kitces & Carl Ep 98: Fee Schedule Complexity And Managing The Fear Of Leaving Opportunities On The Table

Nerd's Eye View

For many financial advisors, prospecting efforts have traditionally been based on a perspective of scarcity, where the aim was to focus on connecting with and closing as many prospects as possible, regardless of their actual needs.

Top 7 Global Employment Challenges

Global expansion brings many opportunities for companies. However, there are pitfalls along the way that can slow down progress. In this eBook, we look at the 7 key challenges to global growth, and ways to minimize expansion headaches.

Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Money market mutual funds may no longer be the best place for short term cash. wsj.com) Through a statistical quirk, the Fed is causing the inflation it is fighting. ritholtz.com) Zuck is running Meta ($META) into the ground.

Powell "It's premature to think about pausing interest rate hikes."

Mish Talk

Reflections on the post-FOMC news conference in @MacroAlf Tweet. FOMC News Conference You can watch the post-FOMC news conference here. It starts at the 1:00 hour mark. So, the conference is 44 minutes long, not 1:44.

MiB: The Jeremies! Schwartz and Siegel on SFTLR!

The Big Picture

?. This week, we speak with The Jeremies! Professor Jeremy Siegel at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is frequently voted Best professor at Wharton, and is the author of Stocks for the Long Run , Jeremy Schwartz is CIO at Wisdom Tree Asset Management , where he has worked since May 2005.

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Three Things I Think I Think – Changing My Mind

Pragmatic Capitalism

The last few years have been jarring in numerous ways. They’ve also forced me to reconsider how I help people navigate the financial world. Here are some things I’ve recently [ …

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Global Hiring Guide: Top Emerging Fintech Hubs

The fintech industry is growing exponentially. Companies can find the talent they need in top emerging fintech hubs around the world. Highly skilled global candidates are available to hire — companies just need to know where to look for them.

Personal finance links: yesterday’s news

Abnormal Returns

Morgan Housel Derek Thompson talks with Morgan Housel about what investing is for. theringer.com) Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talks with Morgan Housel about money and storytelling. morningstar.com) Investing Diversification allows you to not have to make big bets. awealthofcommonsense.com) On the siren's song that is stock picking. bestinterest.blog) Why banks don't necessarily offer their existing clients the best CD rates. wsj.com) How to ladder target-date bond ETFs.

Rent Prices Have Declined Two Straight Months, But What Does It Mean?

Mish Talk

Rent price data from ApartmentList, calculation and chart by Mish. National Rent Report Please consider the latest National Rent Report by Apartment List. Our national index fell by 0.7

10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • The rise of the ‘chief remote officer’ While many firms have pivoted to hybrid or remote work in an ad-hoc way, others are creating a new role to oversee their workplace transformation. ( BBC ). Everyone seems to hate daylight saving time.

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Upfront And Ongoing RIA Compliance Obligations Of State Vs SEC-Registered Investment Advisers

Nerd's Eye View

In the United States, Registered Investment Advisers (RIAs) are required to register in one of 2 ways: with the Federal government (namely the SEC) or with one (or more) state securities regulatory agencies.

The HR Compliance Playbook: How to Improve Speed-to-Hire

Every global growth to-do list should begin with compliance. Navigating international jurisdictions can be complex and time-consuming, but with solid, up-to-date compliance procedures, companies can maximize efficiency, speed-to-hire, and mitigate risks.

Friday links: principles and beliefs

Abnormal Returns

Strategy When should you change your asset allocation? Not all that often. awealthofcommonsense.com) For the first time in a decade, TIPS finally look attractive. morningstar.com) Old school Would Ben Graham buy Meta ($META) stock?

Mortgage Rates More Than Double In 10 Months Adds Stress to Buyers and Flippers

Mish Talk

Mortgage rate chart courtesy of Mortgage News Daily, annotations by Mish. Death of Deals Puts Stress on Flippers Since the beginning of the year, mortgage rates have gone from 3.35 percent to 7.30 percent.

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Euro 1973 BMW 3.0CSi

The Big Picture

BMW’s image as the “ultimate driving machine” was built atop the sportiness of its high-performance coupe models. The “sharknose” E9 was BMW’s elegant flagship coupe sold in the US from 1968-1975.