Sat.Oct 29, 2022 - Fri.Nov 04, 2022

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The Many Ways the FOMC Can Be Wrong…

The Big Picture

Since it is late on a Friday, I thought I might share some quick thoughts about the week. I have been wondering, more than usual, about the disconnect between what we see in falling prices and the Federal Reserve’s anti-inflation actions. It is difficult to reconcile Fed rhetoric with the actual price of Goods. One can reach only so many conclusions: Perhaps the Fed is right and everybody else is wrong.

Economy 352
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Help me feed a few thousand families this Thanksgiving

The Reformed Broker

Here’s the deal – during the pandemic I wanted to do a book signing for the fans when we released How I Invest My Money. Obviously, travel and meet and greets weren’t going to happen, so we had to improvise. Instead, we set up a virtual book signing where you guys mailed me the books along with a check for $20 to Long Island Cares and the Harry Chapin Food Bank.

Food 258
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Thursday links: the realm of consensus

Abnormal Returns

Companies Why is Zuck betting the company on the metaverse? (wsj.com) More tech companies are engaging in layoffs including Lyft ($LYFT). (wsj.com) Finance On the end of the SPAC boom. (morningstar.com) How signaling happens in the options market. (wsj.com) The Ark Venture fund is offering investors access to the private Twitter. (ft.com) Media How Moneyball has ruined baseball, and culture.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Nov 5-6)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that as part of the ongoing integration between the merged companies, Charles Schwab plans to transition advisors currently on the TD Ameritrade custodial platform to Schwab’s platform over Labor Day weekend 2023.

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Live Demo: How to Achieve Reconciliation Zen

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Automation generally supercharges any process and brings its value to the forefront. See how infusing automation such as ART (our month-end close solution), into your close can get you to the next level of closing. We will share a live demo of SkyStem's solution, ART and share the key elements of month-end close automation. Through ART, we'll take a look at: What month-end close automation entails Which process steps can and should be automated Benefits of achieving process automation, and Why i

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Behind the Curve, Part V

The Big Picture

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the FOMC increased the Fed Funds Rate another 75 bps yesterday, to 3.75-4.0%. Markets have given back much of October’s gains fairly quickly. I have been turning this over slowly in my mind, trying to assess their thinking here. I am not sure what models they use, what data they think is most important, what impact their actions will have, and perhaps most importantly, exactly what they are hoping to accomplish.

Planning 310

More Trending

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Monday links: old finance articles

Abnormal Returns

Small caps Small caps are outperforming of late. (allstarcharts.com) And valuations are still attractive. (gmo.com) Strategy The past two years help show the agony and ecstasy of stock picking. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Joachim Klement, "The people who are committed to sin stock investing are a small minority and are unlikely to shift the consensus away from the ESG investing trend.

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Kitces & Carl Ep 98: Fee Schedule Complexity And Managing The Fear Of Leaving Opportunities On The Table

Nerd's Eye View

For many financial advisors, prospecting efforts have traditionally been based on a perspective of scarcity, where the aim was to focus on connecting with and closing as many prospects as possible, regardless of their actual needs. However, in order to accommodate a wide range of clients with wildly diverse needs, firms often need to provide a myriad of services to address those needs.

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When Your Only Tool is a Hammer…

The Big Picture

Today and tomorrow the Federal Reserve will hold its 7th Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year. It is given that we will see a 75-basis point increase Wednesday, but what gets said about the meeting on December 13-14 is even more important. The hopes are the Fed indicates a slower pace of rate increases, perhaps as low as 50 basis points in December.

Economy 304
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Revenge of the Dow Jones!

The Reformed Broker

Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including: ?Fintech Earnings Week – SoFi is out, stock is rallying. ?The Dow is Back – The Dow had it’s best month since January 1976. ?November FOMC – Can they really let us think they are about to chill.

Investing 130
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Wednesday links: sub-optimal portfolios

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Investing is ultimately based on optimism. (fortunesandfrictions.com) Medical knowledge builds on itself. Financial knowledge not so much. (collabfund.com) Five arguments against a value stock revival. (blog.validea.com) Companies CVS and Walgreen's are likely to walk away from the opioid crisis without admitting culpability. (statnews.com) Men now make up 25% of Lululemon's ($LULU) revenue.

Portfolio 185
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Upfront And Ongoing RIA Compliance Obligations Of State Vs SEC-Registered Investment Advisers

Nerd's Eye View

In the United States, Registered Investment Advisers (RIAs) are required to register in one of 2 ways: with the Federal government (namely the SEC) or with one (or more) state securities regulatory agencies. While SEC-registered RIAs are governed by the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 (and its associated regulations), state-registered RIAs are subject to the individual rules of the states (which have their own securities laws and regulations) where they are registered.

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MiB: The Jeremies! Schwartz and Siegel on SFTLR!

The Big Picture

?. This week, we speak with The Jeremies! Professor Jeremy Siegel at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is frequently voted Best professor at Wharton, and is the author of Stocks for the Long Run , Jeremy Schwartz is CIO at Wisdom Tree Asset Management , where he has worked since May 2005. We discuss how why stocks — and real estate, gold, and bonds — have performed over time.

Assets 289
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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Final Trades: Waste Connections, Boeing & Zillow from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Money market mutual funds may no longer be the best place for short term cash. (wsj.com) Through a statistical quirk, the Fed is causing the inflation it is fighting. (ritholtz.com) Zuck is running Meta ($META) into the ground. (ez.substack.com) Why so few investors utilize managed futures in their portfolios. (blog.validea.com) Why isn't everyone talking more about the increasingly inverted Treasury yield curve?

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#FA Success Ep 305: Accelerating Growth Of (Fee-Only) Clients By Making It Clear You Have Nothing To Sell, With Mindy Crary

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 305th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Mindy Crary. Mindy is the owner of Creative Money, an independent RIA based in Seattle, Washington, that offers a unique 12-month financial planning engagement – or as Mindy puts it on her homepage, “financial planning that doesn’t suck” – which has allowed her firm to work with nearly 400 client households just this year.

Fee Only 130
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Euro 1973 BMW 3.0CSi

The Big Picture

BMW’s image as the “ultimate driving machine” was built atop the sportiness of its high-performance coupe models. The “sharknose” E9 was BMW’s elegant flagship coupe sold in the US from 1968-1975. The E9 used an electronic fuel injection system that was state-of-the-art technology back then (most cars were still using carburetors). 200 HP made the 3.0 CSi really fast (at least for those days).

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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Final Trades: Pharma, Chevron, Uber & more from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Friday links: principles and beliefs

Abnormal Returns

Strategy When should you change your asset allocation? Not all that often. (awealthofcommonsense.com) For the first time in a decade, TIPS finally look attractive. (morningstar.com) Old school Would Ben Graham buy Meta ($META) stock? (rationalwalk.com) 12 lessons from Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett on money and life including 'Volatility is not risk.

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October Employment Report: 261 thousand Jobs, 3.7% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October , and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care, professional and technical services, and manufacturing. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 23,000, from +315,000 to +292,000, and the change for September was revised up by 52,000, from +263,000 to +315,000.

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10 Tuesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Fed Seen Aggressively Hiking to 5%, Triggering Global Recession : Survey of economists sees 75 basis-point hike, then slowing Three-quarters say the Fed will err by doing too much. ( Bloomberg ) see also Cash-Rich Consumers Could Mean Higher Interest Rates for Longer Buoyed by pandemic-fueled savings, consumers and businesses are proving less sensitive to tighter credit—complicating the Fed’s job. ( Wall Street Journal ). • Revenge of the Dow : Chang

Startup 259
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RIA CapWealth Wins Legal Battle With SEC Over 12b-1 Disclosures

Wealth Management

CapWealth went up against an SEC staff of eight attorneys, jury experts and two paralegals, and won a rare victory related to share class disclosure conflicts. “This is David and Goliath,” the firm's co-founder said.

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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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Podcast links: inflation impacts

Abnormal Returns

Listening Amazon Prime members now get access to the entire Amazon Music catalog. (techcrunch.com) The Libby app is great for e-books and audiobooks. (theverge.com) Companies Howard Lindzon talks with Sami Issa & Maggie Love, co-founders of W3CLOUD. (howardlindzon.com) Matt Reustle talks with Sean Stannard-Stockton about the business of Home Depot ($HD).

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 0.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 28, 2022. This week’s results include revised data to reflect an update to last week’s survey results.

Sales 143
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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Is the Stock Market Gaslighting Us? A downturn in the market doesn’t always precede a downturn in the economy. Yes, the stock market is forward-looking, but sometimes it sees things that aren’t there. At its low, the S&P 500 was 25% below its high. It’s hard to completely dismiss this as a leading indicator and I’m not here to do that, but while most drawdowns of this magnitude have led to economic contractions, they haven’t always. ( Irrelevant Inv

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When Should You Change Your Asset Allocation?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: My question is how does asset allocation strategy change with your net worth? For example, should someone of the same age with $10 million in net worth have the same allocation as someone with $1 million? The bulk of my career has been spent working in the institutional investment space — mainly foundations and endowments. These huge pools of capital liked to call themselves “sophisticated” invest.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Longform links: what artists do best

Abnormal Returns

Books A Q&A with Guarav Batra, co-author of "The Titanium Economy: How Industrial Technology Can Create a Better, Faster, Stronger America." (fasterplease.substack.com) An excerpt from "It’s Not TV: The Spectacular Rise, Revolution, and Future of HBO" by Felix Gillette and John Koblin. (bloomberg.com) An excerpt from “I Wouldn’t Do That if I Were Me: Modern Blunders and Modest Triumphs (but Mostly Blunders)” by Jason Gay.

Economy 130
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Vehicles Sales "Surge" to 14.90 million SAAR in October

Calculated Risk

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for October. Wards Auto estimates sales of 14.90 million SAAR in October 2022 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 10.4% from the September sales rate, and up 12.7% from October 2021. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for October (red).

Sales 143
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Animal Spirits: A Housing Recession

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by Masterworks and AcreTrader: See here to learn more about investing in contemporary art and here for important disclosures* See here for more information on how to invest in farmland On today’s show we discuss: Three things dampening the pain (The Irrelevant Investor) Cash-rich consumers could mean higher interest rates for longer The economy is still in a post-pande.

Economy 132