Sat.Feb 25, 2023 - Fri.Mar 03, 2023

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Does International Diversification Work?

Alpha Architect

In this article, the authors examine the research on the benefits of international diversification. Some argue that because equity markets generally crash simultaneously, there are no benefits to having equity diversification. The evidence from this paper rejects this hypothesis. Does International Diversification Work? was originally published at Alpha Architect.

Marketing 123
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How Many Bear Markets Have You Lived Through?

The Big Picture

Have a look at the BAML chart above. 1 It is one of my favorites, but for reasons that might not be readily apparent at first glance. The chart shows the peak-to-trough declines of all the bear markets with the popular definition of a 20% decline, measured up until the start of the first 20% rally. 2 The current move from 2021 highs is shown in red.

Marketing 334
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The Joke

The Reformed Broker

Act I Our hero Josh Brown spends a decade working at a succession of third-tier brokerage firms on Long Island and in New York City. He’s in his early twenties and knows less than nothing about stocks, bonds, mutual funds, investing, the economy, financial advice or anything else germane to the profession. He works for thieves, hustlers, well-meaning know-nothings and the morally compromised, men who will say and se.

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Podcast links: a growing crisis

Abnormal Returns

The biz There's really no distinction between podcasts and audiobooks. (hollywoodreporter.com) Podcasts are coming to YouTube Music. (techcrunch.com) Nicole Lapin is launching the Money News Network. (variety.com) Startups Patrick O'Shaughnessy talks with Doug Leone who is a long time Partner at Sequoia Capital (joincolossus.com) David Cover and Brett Beshore talk with Anu Hariharan of YCombinator about managing small businesses.

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8 Sins of a Manual Reconciliation

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Business operations are getting increasingly complex, shareholders are demanding more, and your auditors are breathing down your neck like never before. In this high-pressure environment, it’s important to remember that reconciliation activity is your last line of defense against financial fraud and errors. Insisting on a manual process to handle month-end reconciliations is a risky endeavor that places an undue burden on your accounting team.

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Framing Prospect Conversations Around What Motivates Them Today (And Not Their Future Goals)

Nerd's Eye View

When holding discovery meetings with a prospective client, financial advisors often ask the prospect about their goals. The hope is that these conversations will help the prospect ease into a positive frame of mind (by thinking about a vacation, retirement, or another future aspiration) and, at the same time, present the advisor with an opportunity to show how their services can help the prospect achieve their goals.

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The Past, Present and Future of Financial Media

The Reformed Broker

It was a lot of fun hanging with my old friend Howard Lindzon on his show this week. Listen above or wherever fine podcasts are played. The post The Past, Present and Future of Financial Media appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

Media 171
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Adviser links: asking good questions

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talk with Derek Tharp about retirement-spending strategies, sequence risk, and portfolio construction. (morningstar.com) Daniel Crosby talks with Rachel J. Robasciotti is the Founder and CEO of Adasina Social Capital. (standarddeviationspod.com) Michael Kitces talks with Danqin Fang who is a Lead Advisor for Austin Asset, an independent RIA.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (March 4-5)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that amid economic and market headwinds, the pace of RIA M&A activity was slower in January and February compared to the same period last year. If this trend continues, 2023 would be the first year in more than a decade to see fewer transactions than the year before, though some industry observers continue to see significant appetite for deals.

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Rent Increases by County

The Big Picture

Fascinating dive into rent increases on a county by county basis via USAFacts: Rents rose in 58% of all counties nationwide between 2020 and 2023. Data shows that rents rose and dipped between neighboring zip codes. Housing prices jumped during the COVID-19 pandemic as remote work caused many Americans to reconsider their living situations. Rent prices also rose, with inflation-adjusted median rent growing from $1,163 in 2019 to $1,191 in 2021, according to the US Census Bureau.

Marketing 295
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Navigating Financial Storms: Strategies for Building Resilient Balance Sheets

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 67% YoY; New Listings Down 16% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Feb 25, 2023 • Active inventory growth continued to climb with for-sale homes up 67% above one year ago. Inventories of for-sale homes rose again, but climbed on par with last week’s pace, which was a slightly slower yearly pace than we saw late January and early February.

Sales 145
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Friday links: risk and luck

Abnormal Returns

Markets Retail investors can't quit Tesla ($TSLA) stock. (wsj.com) Softbank is planning to IPO chip maker Arm Holdings in New York. (cnbc.com) Short-dated options are distorting market data. (ft.com) Strategy When does it make sense to take on duration in your bond portfolio? (awealthofcommonsense.com) Index funds have two major advantages. (morningstar.com) Berkshire Hathaway Evidence that Warren Buffett has become less verbose over time.

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How to Build a Kitchen (and Why)

Mr. Money Mustache

Well, looks like it has happened again. Since the last time we spoke, I got sucked into building my 17th(?) kitchen, and I have finally emerged from its messy yet addictive grasp as I stand here at the new breakfast bar, typing this report to you. Why am I so hooked on this strange pastime? And more importantly, why am I so excited to tell you about it, when most MMM readers probably don’t have house building at the top of their list of life priorities?

Budgeting 145
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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • How to Print Money : Cash may seem old-fashioned these days — but in much of the world, cash is still king. The process of making money requires teams of experienced designers and engravers who etch the plates with portraits, vignettes, lettering and ornamentation. The designs are crafted with both aesthetics and security in mind. ( New York Times ) • Apartment Rents Fall as Crush of New Supply Hits Market : Declines signal tenants may be maxed-ou

Valuation 285
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Putting the ‘Tech’ in Spend Management Techniques

Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker

If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!

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FDIC: Problem Banks Decreased to Record Low 39 in Q4 2022

Calculated Risk

The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4 2022: Reports from 4,706 commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reflect aggregate net income of $68.4 billion in fourth quarter 2022, a decrease of $3.3 billion (4.6 percent) from the third quarter. Lower noninterest income and higher provision expenses offset an increase in net interest income.

Banking 144
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Sunday links: too many theories

Abnormal Returns

Berkshire Hathaway Some of the best nuggets from Warren Buffet's latest shareholder letter. (investmenttalk.substack.com) Warren Buffett has been badmouthing GAAP for awhile now. (tker.co) A link to the 2022 Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) annual shareholder report. (berkshirehathaway.com) Warren Buffett isn't shy about admitting mistakes. (bloomberg.com) Companies Why you shouldn't fall in love with companies.

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Why Aren’t Housing Prices Crashing?

A Wealth of Common Sense

The latest Case-Shiller national home price index data was released this week. Here’s where we stand in terms of the drawdown from peak prices: This is the third largest national home price drawdown since 1987 but I’m sure lots of people are surprised prices haven’t fallen more what with 7% mortgage rates and unsustainable price gains in recent years.

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10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My morning train WFH reads: • All the recessions that didn’t happen. The future doesn’t always cooperate with the present because whatever is going to happen hasn’t happened yet. So forecasters are frequently wrong. They’ll never stop forecasting, but their recent track record should make you skeptical every time you hear somebody predicting a recession. ( Yahoo Finance ) • World’s Rich Take Advantage as $1 Trillion Property Market Craters : Wealthy investors were the most active buyers of comme

Assets 268
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Connect, Care, Convert: Secrets to Establishing Trust with Niche Markets and Turning Them Into Clients

Speaker: Lynnette Khalfani-Cox, The Money Coach®

Niche markets represent a huge opportunity for the financial services industry in America. From college students and women to communities of color and low-to-moderate-income households, niche populations have specialized financial needs – but they often underutilize many valuable financial products and services. How can you better connect with these consumers?

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 1.5% Compared to Same Week in 2019

Calculated Risk

From CoStar: STR: Weekly US Hotel Occupancy Eclipses 64% U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through Feb. 25. Feb. 19-25, 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*): • Occupancy: 64.2% (-1.5%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.51 (+22.2%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$100.43 (+20.3%) *Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.

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Personal finance links: generational wealth

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Peter Lazaroff talks with Robin Powell about evidence-based investing. (peterlazaroff.com) The Mad Fientist talks with Ramit Sethi author of "I Will Teach You to Be Rich." (madfientist.com) Retirement Why retirement planning is not easy - uncertainty. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Some questions you need to ask yourself about retirement. (humbledollar.com) If you love something, why wouldn't you want to do it indefinitely?

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Chart of the Week: House Prices vs Rents

Discipline Funds

If I had to distill our macro view into a single chart it would be this – house prices vs rents. COVID created an incredible disequilibrium in the housing market where house prices surged 40%+ and rents are only just playing catch-up. It’s part of what has caused inflation to linger as rents have a lagging impact on CPI and have yet to roll over substantially in the Owners Equivalent Rent data.

Economy 137
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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week, Non-NonFarmPayroll, morning train WFH reads: • American workers aren’t returning to the office like their international counterparts—here’s why : Even as people got vaccinated and Covid restrictions eased over the years, U.S. office occupancy remains stagnant around 40% to 60% of pre-pandemic levels, Meanwhile, office attendance has returned to 70% to 90% in Europe and the Middle East, and around 80% to 110% in some Asian cities, meaning some workers are spending more time in the

Assets 266
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Chit Chat: Elevating the Month-End Close Process Through Automation – Lancaster Leaf

Speaker: Raul Perez, VP and CFO of Lancaster Leaf

Lancaster Leaf Tobacco Co Inc. is a subsidiary of Universal Corporation, the leading global leaf tobacco supplier. Lancaster Leaf supplies virtually all the major cigar manufacturers in the U.S. with filler, binder, and wrapper, and exports filler, binder, and wrapper to international cigar manufacturers. This all could mean a complicated month-end close - before automation.

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MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Decreased, Lowest Level Since 1995

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 5.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 24, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Economics 142
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Thursday links: the Fed’s job

Abnormal Returns

Markets The stock market is getting oversold. (quantifiableedges.com) Small caps are still outperforming. (wsj.com) Finance The SEC is charging an insider trading case using 10b5-1 plans. (wsj.com) Now you can bet on Jim Cramer's stock picks via these new ETFs. (advisorperspectives.com) Global A year later some companies are stuck in Russia. (nytimes.com) Russia is going to great lengths to avoid sanctions.

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A Short History of Interest Rate Cycles

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: Can we get a breakdown from Ben on the pros and cons of long-term vs. short-term bonds? I’ve probably gotten more questions/comments about bonds over the past 6 months than I’ve received in the previous 6 years. The huge losses in fixed income last year have forced investors to become more thoughtful about how they allocate to this asset class.

Assets 129
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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat by the fire, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • The Inside Story of How Wellington and Vanguard Became Partners : Last year, Greenwich Associates founder Charles Ellis published “Inside Vanguard: Leadership Secrets From the Company That Continues to Rewrite the Rules of the Investing Business.

Assets 222
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The CPA Firm Growth Strategy: From Compliance to Consulting

Speaker: Rita Keller - President of Keller Advisors, LLC

You've worked diligently and have built a glowing reputation grounded in your excellent skills in tax, accounting, and auditing. You're known as the “go-to” person when a client is faced with tax and financial decisions. You have a very successful firm -- but that’s not enough. Profession leaders are urging you to diversify your financial skills and distance yourself from compliance work.