The Big Picture

MARCH 18, 2024

There has been a lot of chatter about magazine covers lately; I thought I might clarify some of the with this post, originally published in Bloomberg on December 27, 2017, along with commentary from Ben and Josh addressing the sdame issue. The key takeaway: The value of the signal here is just about zero. The 2017 Barron’s cover (above) showing Apple’s extravagant new headquarters and suggesting that the company’s market value would reach $1 trillion in 2018 generated some chat

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Marketing Marketing Media Investments 336

Calculated Risk

MARCH 20, 2024

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 15, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

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Marketing Marketing 323

Wealth Management

MARCH 21, 2024

The AI program, Lydia, was developed with Alai Studios to help advisors connect with clients emotionally.

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Clients 320

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 21, 2024

Strategy Byrne Hobart, "Decades of above-average net worth compounding are the reward for taking a big idea seriously, continuously refining it, and implementing it in the real world." (capitalgains.thediff.co) No matter the result, remember other stuff could have happened. (systematicindividualinvestor.com) Reddit The Reddit ($RDDT) IPO has priced.

Financial Advising 289

Financial Advising Commission Media Banking 289

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Accounting

Nerd's Eye View

MARCH 22, 2024

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the SEC has recently been cracking down on firms for recordkeeping failures related to electronic communications, including their use of text messaging with prospects and clients. Which could serve as a warning to firms to heighten their supervision of their advisors' texting practices and whether they are being recorded properly (perhaps with the help of available archivi

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Financial Planner Retirement Communication Electronics 246

Calculated Risk

MARCH 18, 2024

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.3% week-over-week. Inventory bottomed in mid-February, as opposed to mid-April in 2023, and inventory is now up 2.7% from the 2024 February bottom. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of March 15th, inventory was at 507 thousand (7-day average), compared to 501 thousand the prior week.

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Abnormal Returns

MARCH 17, 2024

Markets Market valuations aren't that helpful in the short term. (tker.co) The U.S. yield curve has been inverted for a record amount of time. (ft.com) Strategy Why you can ignore all the magazine cover commentary. (downtownjoshbrown.com) Why it's so hard to profit from a big trend, like AI. (wsj.com) Finance A Reddit IPO is another sign that VCs are coming to terms with a new reality.

Financial Advising 288

Financial Advising Commission Valuation Consulting 288

Nerd's Eye View

MARCH 20, 2024

Monte Carlo simulations have become a central method of conducting financial planning analyses for clients and are a feature of most comprehensive financial planning software programs. By distilling hundreds of pieces of information into a single number that purports to show the percentage chance that a portfolio will not be depleted over the course of a client's life, advisors often place special emphasis on this data point when they present a financial plan.

Communication 246

Communication Clients Financial Planning Risk Tolerance 246

Calculated Risk

MARCH 21, 2024

The DOL reported : In the week ending March 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000 , a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 209,000 to 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,250, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average.

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Wealth Management

MARCH 21, 2024

About 36% of affluent millennials said they’d probably or definitely leave their current firm in the next year, according to a J.P. Power survey.

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Clients

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 19, 2024

Behavior Another form of home bias at work. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) Is there an issue with self-reported happiness measures? (papers.ssrn.com) Factors A mechanism by which quality stocks outperform. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) On the benefits of combining fast and slow momentum models. (alphaarchitect.com) Harvesting premia requires sticky capital.

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Nerd's Eye View

MARCH 18, 2024

Soliciting prospect referrals can often be an effective way for financial advisors to grow their firms with clients who are ready to act and who will benefit from the firm since many referrals come from sources that are familiar not just with the advisor and the services they offer, but also with the prospect being referred and the needs they seek. This is particularly true when referrals come from Centers of Influence (COIs) – professionals who are trusted by their circles to influence id

Assets 246

Assets Media Professional Services Financial Advisor 246

Calculated Risk

MARCH 21, 2024

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Vaulted 9.5% in February, Largest Monthly Increase in a Year Existing-home sales climbed in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales jumped in the West, South and Midwest, and were unchanged in the Northeast. Year-over-year, sales declined in all regions.

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Sales 301

Wealth Management

MARCH 20, 2024

Supporters and critics of the proposed rule are setting up discussions with the Office of Management and Budget, one of the last steps before the final rule will be revealed.

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Budgeting Insurance Retirement Management 317

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

Management

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 20, 2024

Podcasts Robin Powell talks with Ben Carlson about why the U.S. stock market has held up. (youtube.com) Barry Ritholtz talks with Jim O'Shaughnessy about the benefits of a quantitative investment approach. (ritholtz.com) Dan Haylett talks with Christine Benz about her new book "How to Retire: 20 Lessons For A Happy, Successful & Wealthy Retirement.

Asset Allocation 278

Asset Allocation Retirement Commission Taxes 278

Nerd's Eye View

MARCH 21, 2024

For many financial advicers, helping long-time clients identify and progress toward their goals eventually transitions into conversations around the best ways to enjoy the fruits of their labor once they reach them. Yet, for some clients, making the shift into retirement (or any other new stage of their lives) can often be a challenge for myriad reasons, which places the advisor in a unique position to help these clients understand the roadblocks they face and explore ways to overcome these obst

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Clients Financial Planning Financial Advice Retirement 246

Calculated Risk

MARCH 19, 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Single Family Starts Up 35% Year-over-year in February; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in February were above expectations and starts in December and January were revised up. Last month, I noted that permits held up better than starts in January, and that housing starts were impacted by the severe weather in January.

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Wealth Management

MARCH 18, 2024

Estate planning is far more than a legal formality for business owners, art collectors and aging clients.

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Estate Planning Planning Clients 317

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

Numbers

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 17, 2024

Top clicks this week 40 lessons at age 40 including 'Life advice is like clothing.' (markmanson.net) Travis Kling, "The evidence for the rise of Financial Nihilism is all around us." (epsilontheory.com) The simplest explanation for the disappearance of MH370 is the most likely. (thedailybeast.com) Why this crypto rally is different. (ofdollarsanddata.com) Are the Magnificent Seven all that overvalued?

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Valuation Retail 277

The Big Picture

MARCH 20, 2024

At the Money: Benefits of Quantitative Investing (March 20, 2024) Throughout history, investing has been a lot more “Art” than “Science.” But today, data is widely available and it’s a key tool you can use to enhance your portfolio returns. Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest: Jim O’Shaughnessy, former chairman and founder of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management (now part of Franklin Templeton) and author of the New York Times bestselling book, “What Works on Wall Stre

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Investing Investments Portfolio Valuation 162

Calculated Risk

MARCH 20, 2024

Statement here. Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here , starting at 2:30 PM ET. Here are the projections. Since the last projections were released, the economy has performed close to FOMC expectations. In December, the FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate was at 4.675% at the end of 2024.

Banking 286

Banking Economy Marketing Marketing 286

Wealth Management

MARCH 18, 2024

Chicago-based firm M1 Finance will pay $850,000 to settle charges it didn't supervise paid social media influencers' posts.

Media 317

Media 317

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.

Accounting

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 18, 2024

IPOs Apple ($AAPL) and Google ($GOOGL) are exploring putting Google's AI on the iPhone. (spyglass.org) A closer look at Reddit's risks. (wired.com) Housing Austin's housing market is cooling off. (wsj.com) How home buying is going to change with a new commission regime. (thebasispoint.com) Economy National homebuilder confidence ticked up in March. (insights.finominal.com) Disruption of the Suez Canal is real.

Financial Advising 276

Financial Advising Commission Food Economy 276

A Wealth of Common Sense

MARCH 21, 2024

A reader asks: Lots of podcasts have discussed how large cap indexes just keep going up, and maybe that’s pushing P/E ratios too high from people buying index funds (me included). At the same time, mid- and small-cap indices have not seen the same overall growth. Is there a risk that the S&P 500 gets out of hand relative to true value and then there is a fall as all exit at once?

Marketing 134

Marketing Marketing 134

Calculated Risk

MARCH 21, 2024

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.38 million SAAR in February Excerpt: Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024. Sales declined 3.3% year-over-year compared to February 2023. This was the thirtieth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year.

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Sales 282

Wealth Management

MARCH 22, 2024

Should wealth management storytelling tap into the feelings of the audiences it's targeting?

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Financial Market Wealth Management Marketing Marketing 316

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Accounting

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 22, 2024

The biz Why every celebrity seemingly now has their own interview podcast. (theguardian.com) Should podcasters care about the potential demise of TikTok? (theverge.com) Podcasts are spreading to every nook and cranny of business. (cupofzhou.com) Economy Stephen Dubner, and guests, on what both parties get wrong about immigration. (freakonomics.com) Ezra Klein talks with demographer Jennifer D.

Economy 264

Economy Economics 264

A Wealth of Common Sense

MARCH 17, 2024

There’s a bull market in bull market indicators flashing red right now. Barron’s had a bullish cover: The Economist too: The Nasdaq 100 is up more than 60% since the start of 2023. Nvidia is up 500% in that time. There are tens of billions of dollars flowing into the new bitcoin ETFs. Speculation in tech stocks, crypto, NFTs, options, day trading, etc. makes it feel like we picked up right where we left off.

Marketing 131

Marketing Marketing 131

Calculated Risk

MARCH 22, 2024

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 16 March U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week but showed continued declines year over year , according to CoStar’s latest data through 16 March. 10-16 March 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): • Occupancy: 66.5% (-1.4%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$163.21 (-2.1%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$108.51 (-3.5%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate usi

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Wealth Management

MARCH 22, 2024

Vikram Chugh, who heads up technology and operations for $4.6 billion AUM Robertson Stephens, said the firm has carefully selected each piece of its tech stack.

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