Wed.Apr 30, 2025

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BEA: Real GDP decreased at 0.3% Annualized Rate in Q1

Calculated Risk

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.

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Wednesday links: cognitive passivity

Abnormal Returns

Markets The U.S. stock market still isn't cheap. (institutionalinvestor.com) Whose stock market is this? (axios.com) Exchanges Europe's stock market is shrinking due to M&A. (giftarticle.ft.com) How NYSE Chicago/Texas makes money. (joesaluzzi.substack.com) SPACs are bouncing back. (news.crunchbase.com) Fund management Target-date funds do what they say they do.

Startup 162
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 4.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 25, 2025. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Economics 254
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MiB Live: Harvey Schwartz, CEO of Carlyle Group

The Big Picture

In this Bonus live edition of Masters in Business, I speak with Harvey Schwartz, CEO of the Carlyle Group. We talk about his New Jersey roots, how his mentors helped him grow on Wall Street and how geopolitics will play a critical role in investor fortunes. We spoke at the Future Proof Miami conference on March 18, 2025. You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , YouTube , and Bloomberg.

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Live Demo - Supercharge your Month End Close

Automation generally supercharges any process and brings its value to the forefront. See how infusing automation such as ART (our month-end close solution), into your close can get you to the next level of closing. We will share a live demo of SkyStem's solution, ART and share the key elements of month-end close automation. Through ART, we'll take a look at: What month-end close automation entails Which process steps can and should be automated Benefits of achieving process automation, and Why i

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PCE Measure of Shelter Decreases Slightly to 4.3% YoY in March

Calculated Risk

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through March 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.0% year-over-year in March , down from 4.2% in February, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 4.3% YoY in March , down slightly from 4.3% in February and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

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IRS Proposes Changes to Its Circular 230

Wealth Management

New IRS Circular 230 changes may require USPAP/IVS compliance for business valuations, leading to longer wait times and higher costs for estate planning appraisals.

More Trending

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Focus Financial Partners Promotes Birenbaum, Ferri to Key Executive Posts

Wealth Management

Focus Financial Partners CEO Michael Nathanson calls the move a step towards coherence and convergence across the firms business lines.

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Thursday: Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 218 thousand, down from 222 thousand last week. At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for April. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.1, down from 49.0 in March.

Sales 226
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CFPs Likely to Pay Higher Renewal Fee, Though Some Question ROI

Wealth Management

Advisors responding to a $120 price hike on the CFP designation question the value of spending it on marketing campaigns, but supported the designation for their practice.

CFP 221
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Personal Income increased 0.5% in March; Spending increased 0.7%

Calculated Risk

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March: Personal income increased $116.8 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in March , according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)personal income less personal current taxesincreased $102.0 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $134.5 billion (0.7 percent).

Food 165
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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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B. Riley Discloses FINRA Exam of Wealth Management Business

Wealth Management

B. Riley Financial's wealth management arm is under FINRA examination as the firm grapples with advisor departures, a $2 billion debt load, and ongoing regulatory challenges.

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ADP: Private Employment Increased 62,000 in April

Calculated Risk

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 62,000 Jobs in April; Annual Pay was Up 4.5% Unease is the word of the day. Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data, said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment. emphasis added This was well below the consensus forecast of 130,000.

Economics 147
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Report: Many Investors Feel Frustrated, Uncertain About Advisor Guidance

Wealth Management

The recent market turbulence has investors unsure of the support theyre getting from advisors, while it's pushing many do-it-yourselfers to seek professional help, according to a J.D. Power report.

Marketing 216
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NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 6.1% in March; Down 0.6% YoY

Calculated Risk

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Jumped 6.1% in March Pending home sales increased 6.1% in March the greatest month-to-month increase since December 2023 (+7.0%) according to the National Association of REALTORS. The Northeast experienced month-over-month losses in transactions, while the Midwest, South and West saw gains, which were most substantial in the South.

Sales 147
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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Are Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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Three Things – Big Ol’ Data Dump

Discipline Funds

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) Does the Negative GDP Mean We’re in a Recession? We got a huge data dump on Wednesday including the first estimate of Q1 GDP which came in marginally negative at -0.3%. Net exports and government subtracted a total of 5.08% with exports making up the majority of that. But you had a lot of conflicting things going on under the surface.

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New York’s Top Appeals Court Considers No Contest Clause in Trust

Wealth Management

Court of Appeals rules that seeking enforcement of trust distributions doesn't trigger in terrorem clause, even when claiming ownership interest in trust assets.

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Exit Planning for Founders: How to Minimize Taxes in an Acquisition

Harness Wealth

For many business founders, the eventual exit from their company represents one of the most significant financial events of their lives. Without proper planning, taxes can unexpectedly take a large bite out of the proceeds, potentially reducing financial security and the legacy. When you understand various exit strategies and their tax implications early, you position yourself to make informed decisions that maximize after-tax value while ensuring a smooth transition.

Taxes 52
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Ten Recent Developments in 'Democratizing' Private Markets

Wealth Management

Recapping some of the recent news in the rapid evolution of the alternative investment space for the wealth channel.

Marketing 193
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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Filing Taxes with Multiple Income Streams: RSUs, K-1s, Freelance, and More [Updated for 2025]

Harness Wealth

The very nature of work has undergone a dramatic transformation over the last decade. Gone are the days when a single employer provided the sole source of income for most Americans. In today’s dynamic economy, millions have embraced a diverse portfolio of income streamsfrom traditional employment to creative side hustles, equity compensation, and investment ventures.

Taxes 52
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401(k) Real Talk Episode 150: April 30, 2025

Wealth Management

Open, honest and candid discussion about staff reductions at EBSA, the Supreme Court hearing an ERISA lawsuit, a $39M judgement against Pentegra and more.

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What Triggers an IRS Audit?

Harness Wealth

Self-employed individuals and small businesses may be at greater risk of an Internal Revenue Service (IRS) audit than most. No one is immune, however, as the IRS conducts random audits as a matter of course. The people who undergo an audit have been selected due to a number of red flags that the IRSs computer-based system has detected. In this article, well examine the nature of IRS audits, the common audit red flags that result in IRS scrutiny, and how professional tax advisors can help reduce

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Morgan Stanley Offers PE Fund for Wider Swath of Millionaires

Wealth Management

Morgan Stanley's new North Haven Private Assets Fund offers institutional-quality private equity exposure to a wider audience, with a $25,000 minimum investment and simplified structure.

Assets 178
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How to Avoid Pitfalls In Automation: Keep Humans In the Loop

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.

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Top 12 Smart Marketing Tools for Advisors to Boost Efficiency

FMG

As a financial advisor, you’re busy. We get it. With everything on your plate, there’s little time left for marketing let alone designing campaigns, editing videos, or writing newsletters. Thats where marketing tools for financial advisors come in. These AI-powered assistants help streamline your workflow and enhance communication. Lets break down some of the best tools in the business that help advisors save time, increase reach, and grow their practice.

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MarketCounsel Exec Takes on Business Development Role at Binah

Wealth Management

As chief business and engagement officer, Ryan Marcus will implement a business development strategy across Binahs three broker/dealerss.

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Empowering Financial Voices With Erica McQuade

NAIFA Advisor Today

Erica McQuade is a government relations expert specializing in federal lobbying and advocacy. With a strong background in political advocacy, she actively engages in legislative initiatives that impact the financial services industry. Erica is a featured speaker at events like the NAIFA Womens Financial Security Fly-In, where she empowers women financial professionals to advocate for their clients and communities.

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UBS Americas Advisor Base Drops Amid U.S. Wealth Restructuring

Wealth Management

UBS reports an advisor headcount slip of 1.4% since the end of last year, but says it expected attrition and signals a robust recruiting pipeline.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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Animal Spirits: The Most Confusing Rally of All Time

A Wealth of Common Sense

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by Innovator ETFs by CBOE: See here for more information on Innovator’s outcome oriented ETFs See here for tickets to The Compound and Friends live in Chicago! Get a random Animal Spirits chart here On today’s show, we discuss: As Markets Swooned, Pros Sold–and Individuals Pounced ‘I Could Lose It All Tomorrow’: The Traders Leaning In to Wild.

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Pending Home Sales Jump 6.1% in March

Advisor Perspectives

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) pending home sales index rose more than expected in March, experiencing its largest monthly increase in over two years. The index came in at 76.5, a 6.1% jump from the previous month but a 0.6% decline from one year ago. Pending home sales were expected to rise 0.9% month-over-month.

Sales 71
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What Is a Work-Optional Lifestyle in Retirement?

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

Walkner Condon discusses how achieve a work-optional lifestyle in retirement. Build financial freedom to choose if and how you want to work in your next life chapter.

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The Big Four Recession Indicators: Real Personal Income Up 0.7% in March

Advisor Perspectives

Personal income ( excluding transfer receipts ) rose 0.6% in March and is up 3.7% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.7% month-over-month and up 1.4% year-over-year.

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?