Fri.Nov 25, 2022

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • The Best 50-Year-Old Investing Advice Money Can Buy : Nearly 50 years ago, the economist Burton Malkiel came out with a book that said, in effect, that all of us should be in index funds. The stock and bond markets incorporate new information into prices almost instantly, so trying to beat them is a fool’s errand, Malkiel wrote.

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US Composite PMI Suggests the Economy is On the Verge of Recession

Mish Talk

Demand Weakness Weighs On private sector business activity in November The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI™ shows and escalation in private sector demand weakness. Key Findings Flash US PMI Composite Output Index at 46.3 (October: 48.2). 3-month low. Flash US Services Business Activity Index at 46.1 (October: 47.8). 3-month low. Flash US Manufacturing Output Index at 47.2 (October: 50.7). 30-month low.

Economy 290
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Grinch: Ignore Black Friday Retail Forecasts

The Big Picture

It’s Black Friday and you know what that means: Lots of promotional sales and lots of holiday retail spending forecasts. You can rely on the latter being ubiquitous and wrong; some by a little, most by a lot. At least, that’s what the statistically likely outcome is. As we have seen historically , holiday sales forecasts tend to be a reflection of people’s mood at the moment — not an actual measure of intended holiday spending.

Retail 296
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Friday links: old patterns

Abnormal Returns

Markets How do stocks beat inflation? (thereformedbroker.com) The S&P 500 is not the economy. (awealthofcommonsense.com) FTX Is the FTX blow up the end of crypto? (economist.com) Why did so many people have a blind spot for FTX? (on.ft.com) Why does Alameda Research own a stake in Farmington State Bank? (nytimes.com) LedgerX is one of the few FTX subsidiaries that did not file for bankruptcy.

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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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Past Performance

The Reformed Broker

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Of course it isn’t. Things change. Especially if we’re referring to the past performance of a particular investment strategy, portfolio manager, mutual fund or individual stock. But past performance of asset classes should be well understood. Especially the kind of past performance that’s taken place over longer stretches of time.

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Podcast links: revisiting Moneyball

Abnormal Returns

The biz Spotify's ($SPOT) Anchor now allows creators to use a 'one-button voice isolation feature.' (engadget.com) You have to invest upfront to create evergreen content. (casted.us) Companies Ben Thompson talks housing with Eric Wu, CEO of Opendoor ($OPEN). (stratechery.com) Matt Reustle talks with Nima Shayegh who is Managing Partner at Rumi Capital Partners about the business of Brookfield Asset Management ($BAM).

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The S&P 500 is Not the Economy

A Wealth of Common Sense

Technology stocks make up nearly 24% of the S&P 500. And that number is probably understating things since many of the biggest companies aren’t technically in the tech sector. Amazon and Tesla are two of the biggest holdings in the consumer discretionary sector. Facebook, Google and Netflix are in the communications sector. Many of these companies are now such a part of our lives that it’s difficult to cla.

Economy 145
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Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 20 States in October

Calculated Risk

From the Philly Fed : The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for October 2022. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 36 states, decreased in 11 states, and remained stable in three, for a three-month diffusion index of 50. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 20 states , decreased in 22 states, and remained stable in eight, for a one-month diffusion index of -4.

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How to Create a Video Content Plan

Twenty Over Ten

Video marketing is no stranger to modern businesses-87% of marketing professionals use video as a marketing tool. For good reason, too: an impressive 85% of internet users in the United States regularly watch video content.

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Random Thoughts on the Russian War in Ukraine (Hint: It’s Not Going Well for Russia)

Advisor Perspectives

The following is a loose collection of random thoughts and observations on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Rather than a coherent article, I offer some insights that have emerged as the war has dragged on.

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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Are Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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Taking RMDs This Year Doesn’t Mean You Have to Sell at a Loss.

Yardley Wealth Management

The post Taking RMDs This Year Doesn’t Mean You Have to Sell at a Loss. appeared first on Yardley Wealth Management, LLC. Taking RMDs This Year Doesn’t Mean You Have to Sell at a Loss. A lot of people are concerned with taking their Required Minimum Distributions from their IRA this year because everything is down. If you don’t need the money to live on, though, it doesn’t need to be a concern.

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Thanksgiving Is Getting To Be An Expensive Habit

Advisor Perspectives

Inflation has spread to our holiday celebrations.

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Google's Helpful Content Update: What Advisors Need To Know

Advisor Websites

One of the biggest discussions this year in the SEO sphere has been Google’s “Helpful Content” update in August 2022.

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Investing for the Next Decade

Advisor Perspectives

Franklin Templeton recently hosted an investment forum in Singapore, and much of the dialog pointed to a growing gap in growth outlook emerging between Asia and the West.

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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Episode #456: Marc Cohodes on SBF, Fraud, & The FTX Death Spiral

Meb Faber Research

Episode #456: Marc Cohodes on SBF, Fraud, & The FTX Death Spiral Guest: Marc Cohodes is a famed short seller with 40-years of experience. He’s best known for exposing fraud at mortgage lender Novastar Financial. Date Recorded: 11/21/2022 | Run-Time: 1:06:23 Summary: Earlier this year, famed short-seller Marc Cohodes, who has investigated and brought […].

Investing 143
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Three Income Themes for Multi-Asset Investors in 2023

Advisor Perspectives

In one of the most challenging years for markets, 2022 brought persistently high inflation, aggressive central bank tightening and heightened geopolitical risks, leaving investors with few places to hide.

Assets 52
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COVID Nov 25, 2022: Update on Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths

Calculated Risk

NOTE: COVID stats are updated on Fridays. On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths). Data has switched to weekly. Weekly deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 1,666. COVID Metrics Now Week Ago Goal New Cases per Week 2 ?? 305,082 281,691 ?35,000 1 Hospitalized 2 21,293 21,578 ?3,000 1 Deaths per Week 2 ?? 2,644 2,266 ?350 1 1 my goals to stop weekly posts, 2 Weekly for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths ??

Numbers 130
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Looking Up

Advisor Perspectives

Vivek Tanneeru, portfolio manager, sees structural and cyclical tailwinds converging for emerging markets equities.

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How to Avoid Pitfalls In Automation: Keep Humans In the Loop

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.

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Alternatives Often Shine When Stocks and Bonds Burn with David Copeland

Steve Sanduski

David Copeland is a principal and co-founder of Strategic Wealth Partners , an RIA firm with approximately $3.7 billion in assets under advisement as of December 31, 2021. He founded Strategic Wealth Partners in 2008 after serving as Senior Managing Director with Mesirow Financial for 21 years. He has also held investment positions with Merrill Lynch and commercial banking positions with Harris Bank.

Assets 52
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Markets Mixed in Return from Holiday

Advisor Perspectives

U.S. equities are mixed in pre-market trading, but the markets are on track to post weekly gains for the holiday-shortened week.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Nov 26-27)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that the Biden administration’s Department of Labor (DoL) is planning to propose its own ‘fiduciary rule’ that seeks to create higher standards than the rule put in place by the Trump administration (though perhaps not as tough as the Obama administration’s original ‘fiduciary rule’ proposal).

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US Jobless Claims Hit Three-Month High as Labor Market Cools

Advisor Perspectives

Applications for US unemployment benefits rose last week to a three-month high amid a wave of layoffs at technology companies, a sign of cooling in a tight labor market.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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Tesla a Bargain as It Nears Morgan Stanley Bear Case

Advisor Perspectives

After losing nearly $300 billion in market value in two months, a growing chorus of Tesla Inc. analysts are saying the share-price decline has gone far enough.

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SEC to Push Bond and Option Brokers for Better Prices on Trades

Advisor Perspectives

The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s draft plans to overhaul rules for the stock market would also expand its oversight of bond and options trading.

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Buy Chinese Stocks and Sell Big US Tech Brands, BofA’s Hartnett Says

Advisor Perspectives

The chorus of strategists turning bullish on Chinese stocks is getting louder by the day, with Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett the latest to recommend the nation’s equities as a top buy for 2023.

Banking 45
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Will Crypto Survive?

Advisor Perspectives

With a storyline full of celebrities, politicians, sex, and drugs, the future looks bright for producers of feature films and documentaries about the astonishing collapse of FTX.

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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Student Loan Borrowers Lose Faith in Biden’s Forgiveness Plan

Advisor Perspectives

For student loan borrowers, President Joe Biden’s forgiveness plan seemed too good to be true. And now they fear that maybe it was.