Fri.Dec 01, 2023

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Forecasting Recessions

The Big Picture

The chart above shows that 84% of CEOs are forecasting a recession over the next 12 months, 69% of Consumers saying the same thing, with the yield curve predicting a 61% chance of a contraction. The problem is those sets of forecasts is already 2 months old, dated October 3, 2023. It was before the very encouraging CPI, Unemployment, and GDP data releases.

Economy 285
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Friday links: the weight of work

Abnormal Returns

Markets The performance of major asset classes in November 2023. (capitalspectator.com) Even after November's rally low volatility stocks are still down on the year. (on.spdji.com) The magnificent seven stocks are having a big 2023, in part because they had a rough 2022. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Charlie Munger Charlie Munger perferfected the art of being a second-in-command.

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

Welcome to December! Our end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • S&P 500’s Historic 8.9% Rally Blindsides Skeptics on Wall Street : The US stock market just posted its best month in almost a year and a half, and one of its best Novembers in decades, defying skeptics and fueling hopes for more gains to come. ( Bloomberg ) • Dimensional Fund Advisors Reaps $100B More in Assets With ETFs : The firm has $100 billion in assets under management in its nearly 40 exchange-traded funds, even though it

Assets 231
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Podcast links: an investing paradox

Abnormal Returns

Listening Young Americans are boosting their consumption of spoken audio. (edisonresearch.com) A look at your best options for audiobooks. (wsj.com) The Castro podcasting app may be going away. (sixcolors.com) Substack is adding video creation tools. (washingtonpost.com) Lists The best podcasts of 2023 including “The Big Dig.” (newyorker.com) The top podcasts of 2023 via Apple Podcasts, including the Huberman Lab.

Investing 238
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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (December 2-3)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments this week in the case of SEC v. Jarkesy, which in a narrow sense focuses on the SEC's use of in-house Administrative Law Judges to hear securities law cases rather than traditional Federal jury trials, but in a broader sense could call into question the SEC's (and other government agencies') authority to make rules and enforce laws in

More Trending

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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 6.9% below recent peak

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 6.9% below recent peak Excerpt: It has been over 17 years since the bubble peak. In the September Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 69% above the bubble peak in 2006.

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Everyone is Irrational

A Wealth of Common Sense

I heard an old Norm Macdonald joke once that went something like this: An optimist looks at the glass as half full. A pessimist looks at the glass as half empty. I’m a pessimist and I look at the glass as half full…but I might have bowel cancer. I am a glass-is-half-full guy but tend to lean optimistic unlike Norm. Just think about all that we’ve accomplished as a species.

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Pershing’s Lisa Crafford Joins Constellation Wealth Capital

Wealth Management

After leaving BNY Mellon | Pershing over the summer, Crafford and colleague Morgan McGovern have landed at Karl Heckenberg’s new RIA investment company.

Investing 117
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After-Tax Performance of Actively Managed Funds

Alpha Architect

Ignoring the impact of taxes on the returns of taxable accounts is one of the biggest mistakes that can be made. After-Tax Performance of Actively Managed Funds was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Taxes 107
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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7 Deadly Stocks

The Irrelevant Investor

The S&P 500 is up 21% year-to-date. “Wait, what?” you might be thinking. Yep, it’s true. 21%. This number might not surprise index fund holders, but it’s likely to stun individual stock pickers. The S&P 500 is outperforming 73% of the stock in the index! Seven deadly stocks are driving an Andre the Giant-sized hole through the performance of the S&P 500 and the performance of the S& The post 7 Deadly Stocks appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor.

Numbers 106
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Top 9 Landlords Who Own Mumbai – Names You Need to Know!

Trade Brains

In a city where nearly half of the population lives in slums, working their backs off to afford that extremely simple roof over their heads, there are some people who control large portions of land, passed down through generations or gifted decades ago in a city where land is scarce and where every square foot of space brings a huge premium. The city holds countless secrets close to its heart, and one among them is the identities of those who own lands in Mumbai.

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Four College Admission Strategies Families Can Use

Wealth Management

With most schools no longer requiring standardized test scores, college-bound students will have to look to other ways to impress admissions officers.

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Stay Active Indoors With These Exercises!

Integrity Financial Planning

Staying active in your retirement years can help you to maintain good health and longevity. Making physical activity a habit can be fun and can have various physical, mental, and emotional benefits if executed in a way that makes sense for you. Here’s a rundown of five exercises that can be ideal for retirees. Walking Walking is an excellent, low-impact exercise that can help improve cardiovascular health, maintain a healthy weight, and improve mood.

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Finding “The One:” The Ultimate Guide to Selecting Financial Software

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

As finance and accounting practitioners, you are expected to complete daily operations as well as to manage next generation tools and resources to support a business that is growing in complexity. Having the right software can be critical in juggling and meeting those high expectations. The path to the right software, however, is paved with challenging decisions.

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The Word on WealthTech for December 2023

Wealth Management

F2 Strategy co-founder and CEO Doug Fritz provides his take on the most important wealth management technology news of the last month.

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Lessons From a Legendary Fund Manager with Joel Tillinghast

Validea

In this episode, we speak with Joel Tillinghast, who will retire as the manager of the Fidelity Low-Priced Stock Fund at the end of this year. Joel managed the fund for over 30 years and built an impressive track record, substantially outperforming the S&P 500 over his tenure. We talk to Joel about the biggest lessons from his career, his approach to finding undervalued stocks, what he learned from Peter Lynch, the most important advice he will give his successors and a lot more.

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Did Santa Claus Come Early This Year?

Investing Caffeine

With all this potential recession talk that has lasted two years, you would expect a lump of coal to arrive in your Christmas stocking this year. But quite the contrary, Santa Claus appears to have arrived early this year as evidenced by the +8.9% spike in prices last month, the largest monthly increase in 10 years. The NASDAQ fared slightly better with a +10.7% rise, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged by a tad with an +8.0% monthly increase.

Economy 91
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Savant Wealth Buys Set of SC Firms in 2nd Combo Deal of 2023

Wealth Management

Associated RIA and CPA firms add seven new employees and an office in Clinton, South Carolina.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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CES Strike Report: Ending Strikes will Boost November Employment

Calculated Risk

Here is the CES Strike report for November released this morning: This shows a total of 10,500 workers on strike in November, down from 48,100 in October. With the end of the UAW and SAG-AFTRA strikes, 41,300 strikers returned to work for the November reference period. Note: The reference period usually contains the 12th of the month, however there are exceptions, and the reference period for November 2023 was the 5th through the 11th.

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Savant Wealth Buys Set of SC Firms in Second Combo Deal of 2023

Wealth Management

Associated RIA and CPA firms add seven new employees and an office in Clinton, South Carolina.

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Dec 1st COVID Update: Deaths and Hospitalizations Increased

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. For deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent two weeks will be revised significantly. Hospitalizations have more almost tripled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023. Hospitalizations are far below the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.

Numbers 70
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DIY Trend-Following Allocations: December 2023

Alpha Architect

Full exposure to domestic equities. Full exposure to international equities. Partial exposure to REITs. No exposure to commodities. No exposure to intermediate-term bonds. DIY Trend-Following Allocations: December 2023 was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Q4 GDP Tracking: Close to 1%

Calculated Risk

From BofA: Overall, since our last weekly publication, our 4Q US GDP tracking estimate fell three-tenths to 1.0% q/q saar. [Dec 1st estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.5% (qoq ar) and our Q4 domestic final sales growth forecast by the same amount to +2.1% (qoq ar). [Dec 1st estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 1.2 per

Sales 70
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ISM Manufacturing Index Contracts for 13th Straight Month

Advisor Perspectives

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) remained at 46.7 in November. The latest figure marks the 13th straight month the index has been in contraction territory after a 29-month period of growth dating back to June 2020. The November reading was below the forecast of 47.6.

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Vehicles Sales decrease to 15.32 million SAAR in November; Up 7% YoY

Calculated Risk

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for November: No Holiday Boost but U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Gains in November (pay site). Labor-related plant shutdowns in the U.S. that covered the latter half of September and most of October negatively impacted deliveries in November. Combined sales of the vehicles impacted by shutdowns fell 15% year-over-year in November.

Sales 70
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RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index

Advisor Perspectives

The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of November 17th, the index was at 10.531, down 0.444 from the previous week, with 4 of the 6 components in expansion territory.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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Construction Spending Increased 0.6% in October

Calculated Risk

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during October 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,027.1 billion, 0.6 percent above the revised September estimate of $2,014.7 billion. The October figure is 10.7 percent above the October 2022 estimate of $1,830.5 billion. emphasis added Both private and public spending increased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,579.3 billi

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Highest Close of the Year

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 posted its highest close of the year on Friday as it capped off a fifth consecutive week of gains. The index finished the week up 0.8% from last Friday and is currently up 20.15% year to date.

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Walking Together Through Life as a Servant Leader

NAIFA Advisor Today

Chris Carothers is an insurance professional and a Life Underwriter Training Council Fellow (LUTCF). As a second-generation veteran in the insurance industry, he has been serving and advocating for his community for 30 years. Chris works with over 300 licensed insurance agents to help Americans plan for their current and future insurance needs. He also partners with insurance carriers to develop and introduce new health products.

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