Sun.Jan 14, 2024

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Sunday links: forecasting accuracy

Abnormal Returns

Strategy On the importance of time when it comes to compounding. (humbledollar.com) You can only control your own behavior. (creativeplanning.com) Crypto What you need to know about the spot Bitcoin ETFs. (ft.com) The spot Bitcoin ETF is here. What comes next? (theblock.co) Should Vanguard prevent its customers from buying spot Bitcoin ETFs? (rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Finance Goldman Sachs ($GS) is expanding its lending business to the ultra-high net worth crowd.

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10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • What We Lost When Twitter Became X As a former Twitter employee, I watched Elon Musk undermine one of the Internet’s most paradoxical, special places. ( New Yorker ) • Buying Home and Auto Insurance Is Becoming Impossible : Huge losses from national disasters prompt industry to jack up prices and pull back from some markets; ‘worst possible scenario’ for consumers. ( Wall Street Journal ) see also Thousan

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week Six reasons to bullish. Six reasons to be bearish. (ritholtz.com) The periodic table of commodity returns over the past decade. (visualcapitalist.com) 34 hard-earned lessons including 'People are busy, distracted, and tired. Always follow up.' (thefp.com) Stock markets around the world are at or near their highs. (downtownjoshbrown.com) Good luck trying to pick the best performing asset class on a year-by-year basis.

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Historical Returns For Stocks, Bonds & Cash

A Wealth of Common Sense

Bonds have had a rough go at it these past few years. 2021 was a down year. 2022 was the worst year in history for bonds. 2023 was better although rates were so volatile that the ride certainty wasn’t much fun to be on. In the 10 years ending 2023, 10 year Treasury bonds had an annual return of just 1.5%. The annual inflation rate over that same time frame was 2.8%, meaning you lost money on a real basis in the benc.

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Elevating Accounting Practices: The Power of Outsourcing and Automation in the Digital Age

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.

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How’s the Consumer?

The Irrelevant Investor

The consumer is the economy. I bought a coffee this morning for $3.20. Later I’ll be taking my six-year-old to the city. We’re going to spend $30 on train tickets, $50 at the Museum of Natural History, and another $30 on food. We are a nation of spenders. 68% of our GDP comes from us opening our wallets. If you think we’re going to have a recession in 2024, you have to think Americans are going to cur.

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How to start the year off right 

Million Dollar Round Table (MDRT)

By John F. Nichols, MSM, CLU We start off January with a fast-paced kickoff meeting where I’ll bring the entire team together and try to accomplish a couple of things. The first is to remind them of our mission. What’s our overall objective for our firm? The second is to focus on specific attributes of our year. Maybe it’s less wastage within our business, maybe it’s new clients in specific target markets that we’re in.

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Talk Your Book: Building Portfolios with AI

The Irrelevant Investor

Today’s Talk Your Book is brought to you by Helios: See here to learn more about Helios’ AI developments and their new trading capabilities. On today’s show, we discuss: How 2023 went for financial advisors Struggles with being a diversified investor during concentrated performance periods The growth of advisor tech in 2024 Helios’ utilization of AI How difficult it is to explain quant models to advisors.

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Let's Be Honest About Social Security

Advisor Perspectives

Many of the commentators on my articles claim, as does Chris Christie, that Social Security is a safety net. It is not.

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Fundamental Analysis Of KEC International – Future Plans & More

Trade Brains

Fundamental Analysis Of KEC International: In the current global landscape, governments are placing a strong emphasis on strengthening their fundamental infrastructure, from transportation networks like roads and railways to power generation and transmission. This increased focus has put companies like KEC International Limited in the spotlight focus.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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There’s Finally Hope for the Office Real Estate Market

Advisor Perspectives

Soaring borrowing costs and plunging prices walloped the global commercial-property market last year. Now, more clarity around values and an urgent need to address looming debt maturities are expected to spark more deals.

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[cdata[ How Soon Can You File Your Taxes? ]]

oXYGen Financial

![CDATA[ As the new year unfolds, many individuals begin thinking about the arrival of tax season. With the proposed April 15th deadline (unless you file for an extension), many individuals decide to start tax planning early so that they can avoid any surprises. Whether you're a seasoned taxpayer or a newcomer to the process, one common question often arises: When is the soonest you can file.

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.7% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 6 January U.S. hotel performance decreased from the previous week, while year-over-year comparisons improved, according to CoStar’s latest data through 6 January. 31 December 2023 through 6 January 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): • Occupancy: 46.8% (-0.7%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$152.17 (+7.2%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$71.28 (+6.4%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hot

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Why the Cost of Money Is About to Go Up

Advisor Perspectives

What’s the most important price in the global economy? The price of oil? The price of semiconductors? The price of a Big Mac? More important than any of these is the price of money. For more than three decades it was falling, but now it’s set to rise.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Fun With Portfolio Theory

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Long time readers might know my fascination with Nassim Taleb's idea about barbelling portfolios to concentrate risk into a small slice while having the vast majority in safe assets. He used to frame it a 90% in T-bills from around the world and 10% in very high risk or as he might have said later, asymmetric risk and what's more asymmetric than Bitcoin so let's have a little fun.

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Overcoming Succession Planning Hurdles

Advisor Perspectives

Let’s look at some of the common obstacles around succession and how to overcome them.

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Managing Reinvestment Risk When the Yield Curve is Inverted

Advisor Perspectives

Beware of investing in cash with a plan to extend maturities when the yield curve is no longer inverted. My research shows that this decision is historically difficult to time.

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This Bond ETF Could Be a 2024 Winner

Advisor Perspectives

Corporate bonds delivered solid gains last year. And market observers expect more of the same in 2024. But it’s important to note that the consensus is leaning toward investment-grade over junk-rated corporate issues.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Opportunities in Secondaries

Advisor Perspectives

In the latest episode of our Alternative Allocations podcast, Franklin Templeton Institute’s Tony Davidow discusses the secondaries market in private equities with Taylor Robinson, partner of Lexington Partners.

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Traders Can Lean on Semiconductor Strength Through 2024

Advisor Perspectives

2023 was a memorable year for AI, which also benefited the semiconductor industry. The growth trajectory of the former should also boost the latter. And that should allow traders to continue leveraging its strength in 2024.

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The Triumph and Tragedy of Environmentalism

Advisor Perspectives

I have just read the best book on the environment. But like many great books, it provokes introspection: There is a deep divide among environmentalists, even among individuals – including me – that can’t be bridged solely through reasonable argument or sound data.

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EU Agrees to Reform Its Fiscal Architecture

Advisor Perspectives

EU nations have compromised on paths toward fiscal balance.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!