Sat.Oct 01, 2022

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 29% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 10%

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released yesterday from Chief Economist Danielle Hale and Jiayi Xu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Sep 24, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, and improved 29% above one year ago.

Sales 358
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7th Inning Stretch

The Big Picture

“ Are we there yet? ” is not just a line from the kids the in the back of the car. It’s a question that investors, speculators, and professional traders have been asking themselves. The tl:dr is almost. We are almost there – down ~25% this year (so far). I wouldn’t call this an orderly sell-off, but it also hasn’t been the sort of collapse associated with true crashes like the 2000 tech wreck or the subprime mortgage/derivatives crisis.

Marketing 306
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Personal Income increased 0.3% in August; Spending increased 0.4%

Calculated Risk

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, August 2022 and Annual Update report: Personal income increased $71.6 billion (0.3 percent) in August , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $67.6 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $67.5 billion (0.4 percent).

Food 333
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MiB: David McRaney on Belief, Opinion, and Persuasion

The Big Picture

. This week, we speak with science journalist David McRaney, who investigates the psychology of reasoning, decision-making and judgment on his blog “ You Are Not So Smart.” The blog, which he launched in 2009, spawned a bestselling book, now available in 17 languages, as well as a podcast. McRaney’s most recent book, “ How Minds Change: The Surprising Science of Belief, Opinion, and Persuasion ,” came out this year.

Economics 303
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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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Another Tax on the Horizon for NY Residents

Wealth Management

The proposed LTC Trust Act would require employees to pay a percentage of their incomes (via a payroll tax) into the state’s long-term care fund.

Taxes 278
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BMW XM Hybrid

The Big Picture

The new BMW XM Hybrid is a lot of things: a high horsepower, very expensive, top-of-the-line SUV, that is the first hybrid from BMW Motorsports GmbH, aka “M” sports division. The specs on the Plug-in hybrid powertrain are impressive: -TwinPower Turbo, 4.4-liter V-8 engine. -644HP + 590lb-ft of torque. -0-60 mph in 4.1 seconds. -8-speed M Steptronic transmission. -194-hp electric motor. -317-volt battery pack 25.7-kWh battery pack (30 miles e-driving range).

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

Welcome to October! The weekend is here, so pour yourself a mug of Porto Rico Import coffee, grab a seat on the sofa, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • The Great Bluff: How the Ukrainians Outwitted Putin’s Army : Russia’s army was thought to be vastly superior. But Ukraine has nevertheless managed to secure an almost unbelievable coup, taking back huge swaths of territory in the northeast.

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Five Post-Pandemic Affluent Trends

Wealth Management

Common sense isn’t always common practice.

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Goldman Sees US House Prices Falling 5% to 10%

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Goldman See US House Prices Falling 5% to 10% Excerpt: The recent weakness in the housing market, combined with mortgage rates close to 7% , have led to some downwards revisions to house price forecasts. For example, from Goldman Sachs economists today: Our G10 home price model suggests sizable nominal home prices declines from the peak of around 15% in Canada, 5-10% in the US, and under 5% in the UK. … We view the risks to these estimates as

Marketing 258
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Opinion: AdviceTech.Live Proves Virtual Conferences Have Staying Power

Wealth Management

Despite delays and glitches, the third-annual AdviceTech.Live was well-balanced between new tech demos and lively panels, raised $32,000 for financial planning-related organizations, and demonstrated that virtual-only advisor conferences—born out of the pandemic—should be here to stay, our technology columnist says.

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Data Talks, CFOs Listen: Why Analytics Are Key To Better Spend Management

Speaker: Claire Grosjean, Global Finance & Operations Executive

Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.

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Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in August

Calculated Risk

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 0.72% in August from 0.76% in July. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.79% in August 2021. This is almost back to pre-pandemic levels. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Portfolio 246
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Oak Hill Capital Buys Out Stone Point’s Stake in Kestra

Wealth Management

Warburg Pincus will remain majority owner of the recapitalized Kestra Holdings.

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Podcast links: boosting downloads

Abnormal Returns

The biz Podcasters are not above using tricks to boost downloads. (bloomberg.com) Why the podcasting world seems so tired these days. (garbageday.email) Business Barry Ritholtz talks with Steve Case about his career at AOL and investing in startups today. (ritholtz.com) Benjamin Gilbert and David Rosenthal take a deep dive into the history and strategy of Benchmark Capital.

Startup 246
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It's More About Market Domination, Not Diversification, in the Shifting RIA Space

Wealth Management

Retired CEO of Pershing Advisor Solutions Mark Tibergien on what it will take for growing RIAs to thrive as consolidation shapes the future of wealth management.

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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Oct 1-2)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that a former Department of Labor official expects that it will take until next year for the agency to release new rules that would likely expand the number of financial professionals who must provide a fiduciary standard of care when providing investment recommendations for 401(k), individual retirement accounts, and other plans.

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Americans Abroad Renounce Citizenship to Escape Tax Law’s Clutches

Wealth Management

FATCA, aimed at cracking down on offshore tax evasion, is hurting accidental US citizens who can’t open bank accounts.

Taxes 227
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Q3 GDP Tracking: 1% to 2% Range

Calculated Risk

From BofA: Overall, the data since our last weekly publication and our updated assumptions on trade boosted our 3Q US GDP tracking from 0.8% q/q saar to 1.5% q/q saa r. [September 30th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: Following this morning’s data and yesterday’s revisions, we have lowered our Q3 GDP tracking forecast by 0.5pp to +0.9% (qoq ar).

Economics 189
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Inflation Fears Have More US Workers Pushing Off Retirement

Wealth Management

With the cost of living climbing, many workers say they’ll have to work longer.

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How to Avoid Pitfalls In Automation: Keep Humans In the Loop

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

Automation is transforming finance but without strong financial oversight it can introduce more risk than reward. From missed discrepancies to strained vendor relationships, accounts payable automation needs a human touch to deliver lasting value. This session is your playbook to get automation right. We’ll explore how to balance speed with control, boost decision-making through human-machine collaboration, and unlock ROI with fewer errors, stronger fraud prevention, and smoother operations.

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-Q3 say farewell to September morning WFH reads: • If Your Quiet Quitting Is Going Well, You Might Be Getting ‘Quiet Fired’ : Workers who coast risk being written off—and eventually laid off—by bosses with ‘productivity paranoia.’ ( Wall Street Journal ). • TikTok: Will posting salaries online close the pay gap? Gen Z is known for sharing everything about their lives – from their outfits to their latest meals – online.

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The Crazy Junk-Muni Market Makes More Sense Than Ever

Wealth Management

There will always be risky projects looking for money, but today’s investors are better equipped to handle losses.

Marketing 147
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Making Lemonade in the Stock Market

The Irrelevant Investor

For just the third time in a long time, the stock market has declined for three consecutive quarters. Things feel dark out there, and investors are losing hope. But for those of us that are still contributing money to their future, this bear market should not be met with anxiety, but with open arms. If you were contributing $100 every month to SPY, you would have been able to purchase half a share at the beginning of 201.

Marketing 141
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Three Things I Think I Think – Some Weekend Reading

Pragmatic Capitalism

Here are some things I am thinking about heading into the weekend. 1) Balancing Intrinsic and Extrinsic goals to achieve happiness.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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The Down 80 Percent Club

The Irrelevant Investor

The world has turned upside down, or right side up, depending on your perspective. Everything that worked during the pandemic is unraveling on the other side of it. Nose bleed valuations are getting knee clubbed by a combination of high inflation and rising interest rates. These darlings of 2020 are down 80% or more from their all-time high. It’s tempting to try and catch a bottom in exciting names that are down so.

Valuation 132
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Schedule for Week of October 2, 2022

Calculated Risk

The key report this week is the September employment report on Friday. Other key indicators include the September ISM Manufacturing and Services indices, September auto sales and the August trade deficit. -- Monday, Oct 3rd -- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 52.2, down from 52.8 in August. 10:00 AM: Construction Spending for August.

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Friday links: a complex reality

Abnormal Returns

Markets No matter how you measure it, 2022 is one of the worst years for bonds in history. (nytimes.com) Year-to-date, the Renaissance IPO ETF is down almost 50%. (institutionalinvestor.com) Options trading is booming. (wsj.com) Strategy On the dangers of buying crashing growth stocks. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) A proper asset allocation is a precondition to avoid market-related panic.

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Wait ‘Til The VIX Spikes

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Katie Stockton, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss bear markets, separating the signal from the noise, the VIX, technicals vs fundamentals, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods! Listen here: Apple podcasts Spotify podcasts Google podcasts Everywhere else!

Marketing 130
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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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How To Prepare For A Recession In 7 Must-Do Steps

Clever Girl Finance

Hearing the word recession creates a feeling of discomfort for many. After all, recessions come with a lot of negatives like stock market declines, job losses , and more. But you need to know how to prepare for a recession and still thrive financially. Preparing for a recession is essential to your financial security. Knowing how it affects the economy and your finances and taking key steps will help you during an economic downturn.

Budgeting 105
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Should You Pay Off Your Mortgage Before Retirement?

Darrow Wealth Management

Is retiring with a mortgage a good idea? Most individuals will jump through hoops to live mortgage-free, regardless of whether it makes the most sense financially. Sure, all else equal, it’s always better to reduce your expenses. But in most cases, all isn’t equal: paying off a mortgage early or forgoing one entirely typically comes at the expense of something else.

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Hurricane and Natural Disaster Preparedness

Your Richest Life

After making landfall as a major hurricane, Hurricane Ian caused exceptional damage and serious impacts for residents in its path. This storm, like many before it, caused destruction that will require weeks, months and even years of recovery and rebuilding efforts. These storms, like tornadoes, earthquakes and blizzards, are an unfortunate fact of life.

Food 104
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Something I Was Wrong About

A Wealth of Common Sense

I’ve been wrong a lot in my life. I was wrong to think Joey Harrington and Charles Rogers were going to be the saviors for the Detroit Lions. I was wrong when I let my brother drive my 1989 Honda Accord from Michigan to Martha’s Vineyard to visit friends when I was in high school (it broke down immediately when he brought it back). I was wrong to stock up on boot-cut jeans right before the slim look was abou.

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Demo SkyStem’s Award Winning Month-End Close Solution & Earn $100

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.