Fri.Oct 06, 2023

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Friday links: foolishly reckless

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Defining what you will invest in, versus what you will not invest in, is important. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Why simplicity in investing can help reduce errors. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Apple Apple's ($AAPL) USB-C transition is going to be rocky. (macworld.com) A review of the Apple ($AAPL) iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max. (sixcolors.com) Vaccines How research into mRNA vaccinations very nearly didn't happen.

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Historical S&P 500 Return Calculator

The Big Picture

I have been playing with Nick’s S&P 500 calculator , and it’s pretty damned, cool. He used data from Robert Shiller’s website and created his own interface going all the way back to 1871. (The default assumes your dividends are reinvested). You can see why RWM hired Nick as our Chief Data Scientist… The post Historical S&P 500 Return Calculator appeared first on The Big Picture.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (October 7-8)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent survey found that clients across several countries who work with a CFP professional have better outcomes on a range of measures compared to those working with other advisors or no advisor at all, suggesting that the potential benefits of gaining CFP certification can accrue not only to the advisor themselves, but also to their clients.

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Podcast links: audiobook ambitions

Abnormal Returns

The biz Spotify ($SPOT) has big audiobook ambitions. (nytimes.com) Amazon ($AMZN) is shuttering its Amp audio app. (theverge.com) On the layoffs at Pushkin Industries. (nypost.com) Business Derek Thompson talks with Matthew Ball and Julia Alexander about the state of Disney ($DIS) today. (theringer.com) Roben Farzad talks with Angela Romero and Matthew Boyle about MBA grads buying companies.

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Elevating Accounting Practices: The Power of Outsourcing and Automation in the Digital Age

Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem

Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.

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Zuckerberg vs OpenAI

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Alex Kantrowitz, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss the big tech landscape, AI competition, augmented reality, Michael Lewis and SBF, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods! Listen here: Apple podcasts Spotify podcasts Google podcasts Everywhere else!

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Comments on September Employment Report

Calculated Risk

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 119,000, combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio were both unchanged, and the unemployment rate was also unchanged at 3.8%. Leisure and hospitality gained 96 thousand jobs in September.

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Things Don’t Make Sense

The Irrelevant Investor

This tweet last week caught my attention. Current situation: 1. Stocks are falling like a recession is coming 2. Oil prices are rising like there's no recession in sight 3. Interest rates are rising like we have 10% inflation 4. Gold is falling like inflation is gone 5. Housing prices are rising like rates are… — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 27, 2023 It’s been a weird couple of month.

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Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased 1.0% in September; Down 3.9% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices See Minimal Increase in August Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 1.0% in September from August. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 214.3, down 3.9% from a year ago. “September auction sales bolstered prices through the channel,” said Chris Frey, senior manager of Economic and Industry Insights for Cox Automotive.

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Top RIAs on The Current Investing Climate: Wealth Enhancement Group

Wealth Management

Vice President of Portfolio Consulting Gary Quinzel likes large-cap developed international equities, value stocks and is implementing a barbell strategy for both U.S. Treasuries and municipal bonds.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Why Are Interest Rates Spiking?

A Wealth of Common Sense

The bond market continues to be even crazier than the stock market. We’ve witnessed a massive move in long-term bond yields these past couple of weeks and months. Yields on the 10, 20 and 30 year Treasury were all up in the neighborhood of 60 basis points over the past 16 trading sessions. Yields are up 1% or more on each of these bond maturities since the end of June.

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How the Largest RIAs Are Investing Now

Wealth Management

"Higher-for-longer" interest rates, earnings volatility, multiple expansion. Chief investment officers from nine of the largest RIAs reveal how they are tweaking client portfolios in response to the markets, and detail their best investment ideas right now.

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Make Your Money Work for Your Happiness, Not the Other Way Around

Integrity Financial Planning

While some people idealize retirement as a time of leisure, many people often view retirement as a time of financial constraint and worry. For these reasons, you might think that your money and savings will dictate your happiness. But what if we changed the narrative? What if retirement was a time when your money worked for your happiness instead of requiring you to sacrifice that happiness?

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Will Dianne Feinstein’s Legal Drama Continue Following Her Death?

Wealth Management

The multiple active lawsuits involving the senator's late husband's estate will likely be paused while her own estate is probated.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Weekend Thoughts – SBF, Interest Rates & Jobs

Discipline Funds

Here are three things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) SBF is not an effective altruist. Michael Lewis has been a literary hero of mine for decades. Liars Poker was a book that both excited me about getting into the financial services industry and also made me deeply question the motives of people in the financial services industry. So I was surprised this week to see Lewis doing a book tour and framing Sam Bankman Fried as a good person who just flew too close to the sun.

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RIA Week-End Roundup: Snowden Lane Adds $200M in Assets with UBS Team

Wealth Management

Snowden Lane adds UBS duo with $200M in assets, PCIA moves into Memphis, another rebrand is announced and women are named to key roles at Choreo, Lido and Carson.

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AAR: September Rail Carloads and Intermodal Increased Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. As is usually the case, in September some rail sectors did better than others. There were clearly some good signs. For example, U.S. intermodal originations in September 2023 averaged 252,224 containers and trailers per week, the most for any month since October 2022.

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WealthStack Roundup: Apex To Launch Fractional Fixed Income Platform

Wealth Management

Also, Morgan Stanley launches a charitable giving program, Vyzer raises $6.3 million in seed funding and Modern Life Adds John Hancock strategies.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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September Employment Report: 336 thousand Jobs, 3.8% Unemployment Rate

Calculated Risk

From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 336,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality; government; health care; professional, scientific, and technical services; and social assistance. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 79,000, from +157,000 to +236,000, and the change for August was revised up by 40,000, from +1

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The Word on WealthTech for October 2023

Wealth Management

F2 Strategy's co-founder and CEO provides his take on the most important wealthtech news of the last month.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Index Snaps 4-Week Losing Streak

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 snapped its 4-week losing streak after finishing up 0.48% from last Friday. The index is currently up 12.67% year to date and is 10.18% below its record close from January 3, 2022.

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Top RIAs on The Current Investing Climate: Fidelis Capital Partners

Wealth Management

Fidelis Capital Pattners Investment Research Analyst Nick Smith likes Japan and expanding the firm's levels of interest rate risk.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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RecessionAlert Weekly Leading Economic Index

Advisor Perspectives

The weekly leading economic index (WLEI) is a composite for the U.S economy that draws from over 20 time-series and groups them into the following six broad categories which are then used to construct an equally weighted average. As of September 22nd, the index was at 12.058, up 1.949 from the previous week.

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Will Diane Feinstein’s Legal Drama Continue Following Her Death?

Wealth Management

The multiple active lawsuits involving the senator's late husband's estate will likely be paused while her own estate is probated.

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Oct 6th COVID Update: Deaths and Hospitalizations Increased

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. For deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent two weeks will be revised significantly. Recently hospitalizations have tripled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023. Hospitalizations had been increasing (down this week) but are far below the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.

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Top RIAs on The Current Investing Climate: Beacon Pointe

Wealth Management

Beacon Pointe CIO Michael Dow and Director of Risk Management and Securities Research Julien Frazzo like U.S. large cap value and bonds.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September; Early Reporting Markets suggest Sales at New Cycle Low in September

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September A brief excerpt: This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in September. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

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How 9 Top RIAs Are Navigating a Challenging Investment Climate

Wealth Management

Many top firms have their own CIOs and investment committees dedicated to studying the markets. Here’s how they’re investing right now.

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How to Crush the CFP? Exam ?: Part 2

Alpha Architect

As discussed in Part 1 of this blog series, the Certified Financial Planner (CFPⓇ) exam can be a stressful and intimidating experience. With eight areas of content to cover – both as siloed financial knowledge and also as an integrated approach to building a comprehensive financial plan – it's important to be organized and intentional in your study efforts.