Mon.Jan 30, 2023

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Simple, But Hard

The Big Picture

We live in an age of contextless slogans. It is the stock in trade of Instagram Influencers, TikTok Investors, and grinding side hustles. It’s a new flavor of b t designed to sell unwitting dupes some garbage product or worse, a destructive half-assed philosophy. In 2020, all you had to do was Hodl Meme stocks; In 2021, it was day trade your way to wealth; before that, just be a Crypto bro, or you can “ Have fun being poor !

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Monday links: termination by email

Abnormal Returns

Markets How worried should investors be about the debt ceiling drama? (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Is the VIX broken? No, but the options market is changing. (ft.com) Strategy What can you assume about stock, bond and cash returns over the long run. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Rubin Miller, "The stock market is brashly indifferent to our opinions." (fortunesandfrictions.com) Why you need a well-articulated investment strategy to ride out tough times.

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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Breakup of Google’s Ad Business Would Reshape $500 Billion Sector : If government prevails, an asset spinoff is thought to be more likely than a sale. ( Wall Street Journal ) • China’s Big Comeback Is Just Getting Started : The country’s stocks are up 50% since officials rolled back Covid-19 restrictions.

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Adviser links: managing behavior

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Daniel Crosby talks with Jamie Hopkins, Managing Partner of Wealth Solutions at Carson Group, about understanding our money stories. (standarddeviationspod.com) Michael Kitces talks Jennifer Climo, the CEO and a Senior Advisor for Milestone Financial Planning, about the logistics of merging two practices in just 7 years. (kitces.com) Penn Phillips on four pieces of advice you can ignore this year, or any year.

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Register Now: Sneak Peek Into Close Automation SkyStem Web Demo

Technology is rapidly changing the way accountants perform and manage month-end activities. Spreadsheets, email, and shared drives no longer have to slow us down. Join us as we present a "sneak peek" recorded demo of SkyStem's month-end close solution – ART. In under four weeks, your team can start reaping the benefits of month-end close automation by vastly reducing spreadsheets, cut down on reconciliation work, speed up the month-end close, and better manage your remote team.

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Achieving Career Growth With An Ownership Mindset And Finding Where To Create The Most Positive Impact

Nerd's Eye View

From the sudden changes to everyday life brought on by the pandemic to navigating the new world of hybrid or remote work, employees have endured a challenging few years. At the same time, this shock to the system has led many individuals to reflect on where they are in their careers today and where they want to go in the future. But thinking about career goals is not necessarily enough; instead, employees need to take ownership of their careers to achieve the career goals they seek.

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14 Must Reads for CRE Investors Today (Jan. 30, 2023)

Wealth Management

The future of restaurants is increasingly focused on take-out and delivery, reports The Wall Street Journal. Remote work has saved Americans less time than workers in other countries, according to a recent research study. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.

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Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices

Calculated Risk

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Busy Week With Big Ticket Data And The Fed Unlike last week, the present example offers multiple scheduled economic reports that have consistent track records of causing market movement. Key examples include both ISM reports, ECI, JOLTS, and of course the jobs report on Friday. The Fed announcement lies smack dab in the middle on Wednesday afternoon where it is all but guaranteed that we'll see another downshift in the pace of rate hikes (25bps). [ 30

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How to Avoid Violating U.S. Sanctions on Russian Oligarchs’ CRE Investments

Wealth Management

Opaque structures such as LLCs sometimes make it difficult to pin down who’s behind them. But the stakes are high for commercial real estate professionals who knowingly or unknowingly violate sanctions against the Russian elite.

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: Carnival sees record January booking week for Holland America Line

MarketWatch

Carnival Corp. CCLUK:CCL said Friday that its premium cruise line Holland America Line saw record bookings for the third week of January in a good early sign of demand during the “Wave season.” The cruise operator said bookings for the week ended Jan. 20 were 20% above bookings seen in the same week of pre-pandemic 2019, and that 25% of the bookings were for cruises in 2024.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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U.S. Offices Reach 50% Occupancy for First Time Since Pandemic Hit

Wealth Management

An index of building occupancies in 10 major metro areas increased 0.9 percentage points to 50.4 percent in the week ended Jan. 25, according to security firm Kastle Systems. All of the cities tracked by the company—including San Francisco, Chicago and Austin, Texas—reached return-to-office levels of 40 percent or above, which was also a post-pandemic first.

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Coronavirus tally: Pandemic is still a global health emergency but may be nearing an 'inflexion point,' says WHO chief

MarketWatch

The coronavirus remains a global health emergency, the World Health Organization chief said Monday, after a key advisory panel found the pandemic may be nearing an "inflexion point" where higher levels of immunity can lower virus-related deaths, the Associated Press reported. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told the annual executive board meeting that the world is in a better state now than a year ago, when the omicron variant was at its peak.

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Seven Must Reads for CRE Investors Today (Jan. 31, 2023)

Wealth Management

Multi-Housing News asks whether the self-storage sector has passed its peak for this cycle. The Real Deal reveals New York City’s most valuable commercial building. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.

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U.S. stocks end lower, Dow snaps six-day win streak as Fed decision looms

MarketWatch

U.S. stocks ended lower Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average snapping a six-day win streak, as investors brace for the outcome of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting in a busy week for company earnings reports. The Dow closed 0.8% lower, while the S&P 500 fell 1.3% and the technology-laden Nasdaq Composite dropped 2%, according to preliminary data from FactSet.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Wall Street Is Losing Out to Amateur Buyers in the Housing Slump

Wealth Management

The pattern is unfolding across the Sun Belt but nowhere more than in the Phoenix area, where institutions represented a bigger share of home purchases last year than in any other major US market, according to real estate data firm SFR Analytics. Today, Phoenix illustrates some of the advantages of the old, slow, analog ways.

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Talk Your Book: The Long and Short of Commodities

A Wealth of Common Sense

Today’s show is brought to you by Teucrium We had Sal Gilbertie, CEO of Teucrium on the show to get an update on global commodity markets and a rundown on Teucrium’s latest fund. On today’s show, we discuss: What is going on with Oil & Gas Thoughts on if inflation peaked or not Supply and demand within agriculture An update on grain exports from Ukraine Teucriums machine learning L/S fund How China affects.

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Tennessee Adopts Annuity Best Interest Rule

Wealth Management

The Volunteer state is the 31st to enact a regulation or law based on a model released by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners in 2020.

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You Shouldn’t Always Delay IRA Distributions

Darrow Wealth Management

The Secure Act 2.0 just upended retirement planning…again. The age when retirees must begin drawing from non-Roth retirement accounts increases to 73 in 2023, then 75 in 2033. Individuals who have already starting RMDs can’t stop. Raising the age when withdrawals must begin is great as it gives investors more planning opportunities. However, it doesn’t mean that delaying IRA distributions is the right move for everyone.

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Transforming Lending: Understanding the Power of Digital Platforms

Digital platforms can provide you with plenty of solutions, yet many are still intimidated by them. It's time to end that worry and embrace what could make a major difference for your bank. Understanding how they work and how to best utilize them for your banks is key toward success. In this article, Biz2X breaks down all things digital platforms, including the many advantages of embracing them.

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Seven States Introduce Legislation Aimed at the Wealthy

Wealth Management

Taxpayers would have to pay annual taxes on asset values rather than income.

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The Big Four: Real Personal Income in December

Advisor Perspectives

Personal income ( excluding transfer receipts ) in December rose 0.27% and is up 5.3% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) MoM was up 0.21% and was up 0.3% year-over-year.

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Redemption Requests Raise Eyebrows for Non-Traded REITs

Wealth Management

Blackstone has borne the brunt of capital outflows, but ripple effects continue to sweep through the broader sector.

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Political Beta

Alpha Architect

This example of research on political beta is an example of applying portfolio theory to problems associated with global politics. Political Beta was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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Your New & Improved Month-End Close Process Is Not So Far Out of Reach!

All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!

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SECURE 2.0 Ushers in a New Era for Retirement Savings

Wealth Management

The new legislation brings many opportunities for financial advisors to rapidly scale their practices.

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How the Greatest Female Poker Player Reduces Risk

Advisor Perspectives

Annie Duke’s latest and best of her books, Quit, is on making decisions under uncertainty.

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Wall Street Giants Spy Opportunities Rising From FTX Ashes

Wealth Management

From BNY Mellon to Fidelity and BlackRock, members of the Wall Street establishment are planning for a future in digital-assets.

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: GE HealthCare stock rises after reporting first results after GE spinoff, with revenue rising 8% but profit slipping

MarketWatch

Shares of GE HealthCare GEHC rose 1.3% in premarket trading Monday, reversing an earlier loss, after the medical technology and pharmaceutical diagnostics company reported its first results as a public company, with fourth-quarter profit falling from a year ago while revenue rose. The company, which completed its spinoff from General Electric Co. GE on Jan. 3, said net income slipped 1.8% to $554 million, as earning per share from continuing operations fell to $1.21 from $1.24.

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The Blueprint for a Customer-Centric Digital Lending Experience

Creating a winning digital lending experience requires plenty of focus on the needs of customers and more. Biz2X Chief Product Officer Aaron Traub covers everything from how to create such an experience, areas to hone in on, pitfalls to avoid, and plenty more in this insightful article. Discover how to utilize new technology without alienating existing customers, what to emphasize when working on your platform, and how to utilize the data at your disposal while not becoming overly reliant on it.

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[cdata[ How to Save For A Down Payment on Your First Home ]]

oXYGen Financial

![CDATA[ Saving for a home can be a daunting task. With interest rates up, putting more money down is a huge advantage to keep you monthly payments down. Putting a minimum of 20% down is a good idea because it will force you to save more before pulling the trigger on a purchase. Plus by putting 20% down you avoid paying the PMI (private mortgage insurance) required for smaller down payments.

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: U.S. stocks open lower as investors brace for Fed meeting, earnings deluge

MarketWatch

U.S. stocks opened lower on Monday as traders took profits ahead of a meeting of the Federal Reserve where the central bank is expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points. The S&P 500 SPX fell by 23 points, or 0.6%, to 4,048. The Nasdaq Composite COMP shed 103 points, or 0.9%, to 11,518. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA retreated by 75 points, or 0.2%, to 33,903.

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Weekly Market Insights – January 30, 2023

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

Earnings And Data Tell Two Different Stories On Near Future. Presented by Cornerstone Financial Advisory, LLC Stocks added to their early 2023 gains amid a busy stream of mixed corporate earnings results and conflicting economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.81%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 added 2.47%. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 4.32% for the week.