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Market Commentary: Another October Low Forming?

Carson Wealth

Retail and food service sales have increased at an 8.6% Economic indicators across consumption, income, industry and the labor market don’t point to a recession. The September retail and food services sales data underlined the economy’s momentum. annualized pace over the last three months. in the third quarter.

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Market Commentary: Reasons To Be Thankful

Carson Wealth

Many economists believed factors such as the yield curve, M2 money supply, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), and credit markets indicated trouble was coming and the consumer was cracking. In fact, retail sales and food services are running at 5% above pre-pandemic trends, with no sign of slowing down.

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Market Commentary: Good News Is Good News

Carson Wealth

In 2022, positive economic data typically led to a sell-off in the stock market, and weak data often led to a rally. Strong economic growth and better data should be viewed positively, as it shows the economy isn’t falling into a recession. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is now running below the Fed’s target.

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Market Commentary: Hanging Tough

Carson Wealth

In the face of banking and economic concerns, stocks are holding the line. Stocks tend to lead the economy, so just because the economic headlines are poor now doesn’t mean they will be in the future. Stocks continued to hang tough last week in the face of economic and banking worries. in April 2023. over the past year.

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Market Commentary: The Bulls Are Still in Charge

Carson Wealth

The good news is that food inflation is also easing a lot, rising at an annual pace of just 1.3% The problem until now was that “core inflation”, i.e., inflation once you strip out energy and food prices, remained elevated. But even things like airfares, daycare and pet care services inflation have been falling.

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Market Commentary: More Seasonal Choppiness

Carson Wealth

Headline inflation was up at an annualized pace of 4% over the past three months, but core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is running at 2.4%. Fed members will want to preserve some optionality in case stronger economic growth results in more inflationary pressure and they have to raise rates again.

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Market Commentary: Huge Stock Market Rally Continues as Headwinds Ease

Carson Wealth

Fast forward three months: The economy has weathered the banking crisis, even as core inflation (excluding food and energy) remains elevated, and the Fed believes rates should end the year higher. The higher projection makes sense within the context of the current economic strength. This is where things got interesting.