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FOMC Preview: No Change to Fed Funds Rate

Calculated Risk

The May statement said that “Uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased further”. Given the 115pp reduction in bilateral US-China tariffs on May 12, we think a more appropriate characterization could be: “Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated”. The March SEP was pre-“Liberation Day”. annualized.

Banking 286
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FOMC Preview: Fed to Cut Rates 25bp

Calculated Risk

Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and somewhat inflation lower than expected (although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up in Q4). Projections will NOT be released at this meeting. June 2024 1.9 June 2024 3.9

Banking 182
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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (June 14–15)

Nerd's Eye View

Other key findings from the survey included a gap between long-term investment return expectations of investors and advisors (12.6%

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Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 7% in March

Calculated Risk

While planning data has weakened across most nonresidential sectors this month, activity remains considerably higher than year-ago levels and still suggests steady construction activity in mid-2026. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. Meanwhile, hotel and office planning continued to accelerate.

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AIA: "Billings continue to decline at architecture firms"

Calculated Risk

The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment throughout 2025 and into 2026.

Economy 162
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FOMC Preview: Fed to Cut Rates

Calculated Risk

Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is slightly above expectations, and inflation lower than expected (although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up a little later this year). emphasis added Projections will be released at this meeting.

Banking 312
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FOMC Projections

Calculated Risk

Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and inflation close to expectations (although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up in Q4). Statement here. Here are the projections. Sept 2024 1.9 Sept 2024 4.3 Sept 2024 2.2

Banking 147