Calculated Risk

APRIL 30, 2025

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2025 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. percent in the fourth quarter.

Government 257

Government Food Economics Sales 257

The Big Picture

APRIL 17, 2025

In How Not to Invest , I showcase extreme examples of unforced errors to illustrate these behavioral mistakes. Chris Bloomstran, chief investment officer of Semper Augustus Investments Group, has tracked this. Decades as an investor and trader on Wall Street have taught me that panics come and go. There is nothing in between.

Investments 266

Investments Investing Accounting Startup 266

The Big Picture

APRIL 15, 2025

I discussed much of this in my Q2 2025 RWM client quarterly call on April 5. The US remains the global economic, military, and political leader. Later in the year, encouraged by improving CPI data and minimal economic disruption, the FOMC resumes its rate-cutting regime. Before 2025 ends, a mild recession begins.

Economics 317

Economics Economy Communication Marketing 317

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Here is an update to a graph that uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment. (I

Sales 309

Sales Investing Investments Economy 309

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. Click on graph for larger image.

Clients 270

Clients Investing Investments Numbers 270

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2025

This is true about equity and bond markets, specific company stocks, and economic data series. Or, as John Kenneth Galbraith observed, The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. ~~~ Public Enemy’s 13th album was titled “ Man Plans, God Laughs.”

Banking 345

Banking Planning Economics Investing 345

Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2025

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI April 2025: Billings continue to decline at architecture firms The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 43.2 for the month. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 162

Economy Numbers Economics Investing 162

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 18, 2024

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. Click on graph for larger image.

Investing 281

Investing Investments Numbers Economics 281

Wealth Management

JUNE 11, 2025

Podcasts & Videos CE Webinars Research Newsletters Subscribe Subscribe News Related Topics RIA IBD Wirehouse RPA Insights & Analysis Regulation & Compliance Career Moves Recent in News See all Brett Brodeski Savant Wealth Management WealthTech The Future of Wealth Management: Transformation and Innovation The Future of Wealth Management: (..)

Wealth Management 162

Wealth Management Insurance Estate Planning Clients 162

Wealth Management

JUNE 10, 2025

Podcasts & Videos CE Webinars Research Newsletters Subscribe Subscribe News Related Topics RIA IBD Wirehouse RPA Insights & Analysis Regulation & Compliance Career Moves Recent in News See all Wealth Management EDGE 2025 Industry News & Trends Scenes From Day 1 of Wealth Management EDGE 2025 Scenes From Day 1 of Wealth Management EDGE (..)

Wealth Management 144

Wealth Management Marketing Marketing Tax Planning 144

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2025

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate), 1st Quarter 2025 Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Government 147

Government Economics Investing Investments 147

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

Goods exports were softer than suggested by the Advance Economic Indicators report, while wholesale inventories were slightly firmer. Mar 6th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.4 percent on March 6, up from -2.8

Economics 179

Economics Management Investing Investments 179

Dear Mr. Market

APRIL 2, 2025

Market: This is perhaps one of our favorite articles and times of the year; not necessarily because of basketball but rather it allows us the opprtunity to articulate our main investment themes we see playing out for the remainder of the year. Who will be this years champion? Lets break it down ( click here to see the full bracket).

Investments 78

Investments Investing Valuation Advertising 78

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2025

It made me realize that, despite my extensive research into the psychology underlying behavioral economics, I suffered from the exact same cognitive errors as everyone else. Coming March 18, 2025 see more at HowNOTtoInvestbook.com The post My Bias Blind Spot Bubble appeared first on The Big Picture. But it was.

Economics 306

Economics Assets Clients Investing 306

Fintoo

JUNE 11, 2025

2025 hasn’t been kind to the Indian stock market. Market […] The post Indian Stock Market in 2025: A Global Rollercoaster appeared first on Fintoo Blog. Market […] The post Indian Stock Market in 2025: A Global Rollercoaster appeared first on Fintoo Blog. Let’s break down the chaos and bring some clarity.

Marketing 99

Marketing Marketing Economy Financial Planning 99

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. This graph uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment. (I

Sales 241

Sales Economy Economics Investing 241

Calculated Risk

JUNE 6, 2025

[June 5th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on June 5, down from 4.6 percent on June 2. percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, to 2.6 percent and -2.2 percentage points to 2.01 percentage points.

Economics 130

Economics Sales Management Investing 130

Calculated Risk

MAY 30, 2025

The Advance Economic Indicators report indicated a significantly larger decline in imports than our previous GDP tracking assumptions, while the details of the personal income and spending report were modestly softer than our previous assumptions. percent on May 30, up from 2.2 percent on May 27. percentage points to 1.45 percent and -0.2

Economics 147

Economics Sales Investing Investments 147

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 20, 2024

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. Click on graph for larger image.

Clients 204

Clients Investing Investments Numbers 204

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 4, 2025

Skew Why investors avoid positive-skew investment strategies. bpsandpieces.com) A round of recent research including 'Do Generalist CEOs Reduce Corporate Default Risk?' (alphainacademia.substack.com) Some popular economics books to avoid including "Power and Progress," by Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson.

Math 144

Math Assets Economics Portfolio 144

Yardley Wealth Management

DECEMBER 17, 2024

The post Set Your Financial Goals for 2025: A Strategic Approach to Building Your Wealth appeared first on Yardley Wealth Management, LLC. Set Your Financial Goals for 2025: A Strategic Approach to Building Your Wealth by Michael J. This can significantly impact your retirement savings trajectory.

Financial Planning 52

Financial Planning Debt Management Retirement Planning Retirement 52

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 18, 2024

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. Click on graph for larger image.

Clients 323

Clients Numbers Economics Investing 323

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 10, 2025

(decrypt.co) Finance What David Einhorn thinks about the state of active investing. sherwood.news) RIP Venu Sports: 2024-2025. cnbc.com) Global Trudeau's economic record in Canada is disappointing. ft.com) Big hedge funds are following a well-worn playbook. ft.com) Streaming How many ads do streaming services actually show?

Economy 157

Economy Media Economics Sales 157

Validea

JUNE 3, 2025

These companies have maintained dividend increases through different economic cycles, indicating their ability to generate steady cash flows and manage capital effectively. Discover how Valideas models can help you identify high-quality, long-term investments, even in changing market conditions. Take a Free Trial Today!

Economics 52

Economics Economy Management Investing 52

Validea

JANUARY 6, 2025

By maintaining and growing shareholder payments across various economic conditions, they’ve proven their capacity to generate sustainable profits and manage cash flow effectively. This makes them particularly attractive to those seeking steady, reliable investment returns over the long term.

Healthcare 52

Healthcare Manufacturing Economics Management 52

Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

The good news is we do anticipate the US may play catch up the rest of 2025, but big picture, this is a global bull market and investors are being rewarded for being in risk assets. The Rocky Balboa Market Something unique about 2025 so far is how stocks have bounced back when they’ve been down. Any bets on when it breaks 100k?

Economics 64

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 64

Fintoo

JUNE 4, 2025

Market Commentary Global markets – US indices closed mixed on Wednesday over weak economic data. Nikkei 37,658 […] The post Market Morning Notes For 5th June 2025 appeared first on Fintoo Blog. Dow Jones closed negative by 0.2 While Nasdaq rose by 0.3 Global Indices % Change Last Close 1 day YTD Dow Jones 42,427 -0.2 -0.3

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economics Financial Planning 52

Yardley Wealth Management

JUNE 11, 2025

The post The Four Most Dangerous Words In Investing Are: ‘This Time It’s Different.’ – Sir John Templeton appeared first on Yardley Wealth Management, LLC. So, while pullbacks can be unsettling in the short term, history suggests that staying invested and maintaining a long-term perspective can be beneficial. percent to +13.2

Investing 52

Investing Investments Portfolio Wealth Management 52

Validea

JUNE 2, 2025

Warren Buffett has built his investment approach around one core idea developed through decades of market success: purchasing outstanding companies at reasonable prices beats buying mediocre companies at bargain prices. Visit Validea.com to access in-depth stock analysis and tools designed to emulate Buffetts proven investment principles.

Economics 52

Economics Valuation Investing Investments 52

Validea

MAY 1, 2025

Warren Buffett’s investment philosophy, cultivated over decades of exceptional market performance, centers on a simple yet powerful principle: “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.” Start investing like the Oracle of Omaha today!

Valuation 52

Valuation Economics Management Investing 52

Validea

APRIL 3, 2025

By maintaining and increasing shareholder payments through different economic environments, these businesses have shown their ability to generate reliable profits and manage cash flow effectively. Discover how Valideas models can help you identify high-quality, long-term investments, even in changing market conditions.

Economics 52

Economics Economy Sales Investing 52

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II. GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP 1 Projection Date 2023 2024 2025 Mar 2023 0.0 Two key leading economic indicators are suggesting a recession this year. However, I wasn't even on recession watch!

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Your Richest Life

FEBRUARY 24, 2025

Even though 2025 has only just begun, there are already big changes unfolding that could impact your wallet. That decision is a departure from their announcement at the September meeting to cut rates a full percentage point in 2025. 2025 Inflation creeps up The U.S. This was also higher than the 2.9

Financial Market 52

Financial Market Marketing Marketing Medicine 52

Validea

JUNE 2, 2025

Each of these asset classes tends to perform well in different economic regimes, making the All Weather strategy a compelling option for long-term investors who prioritize consistency and downside protection. All Weather Portfolio: Asset Class Behavior Across Economic Regimes Asset Class Performs Well In Why It’s Included U.S.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Investments Investing Economics 52

Harness Wealth

MARCH 7, 2025

Last but not least, we have a rundown of the IRSs ‘Dirty Dozen’ tax scams for 2025. Learn about his insights into effective communication and transparent expectations for remote teams, shared recently at the AICPA Personal Financial Planning Summit 2025. The Dirty Dozen IRS Tax Scams to Watch for in 2025 ( Isaac M.

Taxes 52

Taxes Retirement Financial Advisor Retirement Planning 52

Zoe Financial

JANUARY 28, 2025

Market Timing vs. Time in the Market Updated January 28th, 2025 Reading Time: 4 minutes Written by: The Zoe Team Though these terms may sound similar, market timing is not the same as time in the market. What do these mean, and which is a sounder investment strategy? Lets take a poll. That said, academia can be redundant.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Financial Advisor Investing 98

Zoe Financial

APRIL 7, 2025

Market Drama Featuring Zoe CEO & Founder, Andres Garcia-Amaya, CFA April 7th, 2025 Watch Time: 5 min. to 2025% the highest in 100+ years. It is not intended to serve as a substitute for personalized investment advice or as a recommendation or solicitation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.

Marketing 81

Marketing Marketing Risk Tolerance Financial Advisor 81