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Avoid the Unforced Investment Errors Even Billionaires Make

The Big Picture

All costs impact your returns, but high or excessive fees have an enormous impact as they compound or, more accurately, lessen your portfolios compounding over time. I have made some fortuitously timed buys, including Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) calls purchased during the October 2022 lows. The latter turned out to be what occurred.

Investing 267
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The “Art” of Market Timing

The Big Picture

Staying long through the 60-day 34% drop during the 2020 pandemic; getting out of the market ahead of the 2022 rate hiking cycle; and getting back in October 2022 for the next bull leg. I have dozens of examples of traders who made the right call for some of the above for all the wrong reasons. By Jeff Sommer New York Times, Nov.

Marketing 304
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What To Do When The Bitcoin Math Doesn't Math

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

There were 127 million US households as of 2022. First, is the math right based on my numbers? I think it can be a productive portfolio addition betting on the asymmetry which of course argues for starting very small. The above two portfolios are pretty consistent with a lot of the work we do here.

Math 52
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Word Association

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

The "endowment" result is very close to red line VBAIX every year except 2020 when it lagged by almost 600 basis point and 2022 when it outperformed by about 500 basis points. If any of us had constructed this portfolio and implemented it for ourselves, it would have been a very acceptable result.

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"Bear Market Cumulative Returns"

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

A portfolio that goes narrower than an S&P 500 500 or total market fund probably has some exposure to low vol, dividends and the others. And checking in on the GraniteShares YieldBoost SPY ETF (YSPY) that sells put spreads on a levered S&P 500 ETF; Yes, that is a rough start, clearly, but interestingly the math checks out.

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Did A Liquid Alternative Just Blow up?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

The fund owns a lot of puts and should go up a lot in the face of a crash but not necessarily a slow protracted decline like there was in 2022. According to Portfoliovisualizer, CYA dropped 46.10% in 2022. The fund in question is the Simplify Tail Risk Strategy ETF (CYA). Here's what caught my eye that it might have blown up.

Math 106
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Barbells Aren't Just For Lifting Weights

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

And then just a little math, the "guarantee" based on the 50/50 allocation would be 2.5% Down less clearly worked in 2022 and YTD HEQT is lagging the S&P 500 by 400 basis points. Portfolio 3 with 65% HEQT and 35% SPHB was down quite a bit less than the S&P 500 last year and the standard deviation is noticeably lower too.

Math 74