article thumbnail

Animal Spirits: Bear Market Math

The Irrelevant Investor

The post Animal Spirits: Bear Market Math appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor.

Math 109
article thumbnail

The First Rule of Dunning Kruger…

The Big Picture

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1999 Yes, The Dunning-Kruger Effect Really Is Real Stuart Vyse Rational Skeptic, April 7, 2022 The Dunning-Kruger effect revisited Matan Mazor & Stephen M. Gaze, The Conversation, May 23, 2023 Math Professor Debunks the Dunning-Kruger Effect By Eric C.

Math 321
Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

article thumbnail

Avoid the Unforced Investment Errors Even Billionaires Make

The Big Picture

I have made some fortuitously timed buys, including Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) calls purchased during the October 2022 lows. These two possibilities a 10-fold increase versus a 90% drop are roughly symmetrical in terms of math (but probably not probabilities). I was up so much on that trade that my trading demons were emboldened.

Investing 267
article thumbnail

The “Art” of Market Timing

The Big Picture

Staying long through the 60-day 34% drop during the 2020 pandemic; getting out of the market ahead of the 2022 rate hiking cycle; and getting back in October 2022 for the next bull leg. The dotcom top, the double bottom in Oct 02-March 03; the highs in 2007, the lows 2009. By Jeff Sommer New York Times, Nov. More on this later.

Marketing 304
article thumbnail

Catastrophizing Debt

The Big Picture

Economy in 2022 was $25,439.70B; in 2009, it was $14,478.06B; ignore that also? Do we simply ignore the growth in the size of the economy and the U.S. population? The US population today is 341,814,420; in 2009 it was 308,512,035. Do we just ignore that? Do we pretend that there has been no inflation? By the way, inflation-adjust that $1.3T

Economy 347
article thumbnail

What To Do When The Bitcoin Math Doesn't Math

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

There were 127 million US households as of 2022. First, is the math right based on my numbers? That 40% could own Bitcoin makes no intuitive sense to me, I guess 20% is possible but that too seems a little high but who knows? So 25 million of them own a little Bitcoin worth a couple of hundred dollars?

Math 52
article thumbnail

Did A Liquid Alternative Just Blow up?

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

The fund owns a lot of puts and should go up a lot in the face of a crash but not necessarily a slow protracted decline like there was in 2022. According to Portfoliovisualizer, CYA dropped 46.10% in 2022. The fund in question is the Simplify Tail Risk Strategy ETF (CYA). Here's what caught my eye that it might have blown up.

Math 105