Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 27, 2025

Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. below the recent peak in 2022. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).

Numbers 162

Numbers 162

Calculated Risk

MAY 28, 2025

Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been almost 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for some readers! below the recent peak in 2022. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).

Numbers 147

Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2024

Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been 18 years since the bubble peak. below the recent peak in 2022. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.9% The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI). In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 1.9%

297

297

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 26, 2024

Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the bubble peak. below the recent peak in 2022. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI). Both indexes increased in July in real terms.

Numbers 278

Numbers 278

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 27, 2024

percent in June 2022. percent in February 2022. Real DPI increased 0.4 percent and real PCE increased 0.1 percent; goods increased less than 0.1 percent and services increased 0.2 emphasis added The October PCE price index increased 2.3 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.1 percent YoY, up from 2.7

Food 303

Food Taxes Economics 303

Wealth Management

MAY 28, 2025

The Department of Labor rescinded its 2022 guidance cautioning against cryptocurrency in 401(k) plans, reaffirming a neutral stance on digital assets in retirement accounts.

Retirement 281

Retirement Accounting Assets Planning 281

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 22, 2024

million in 2022, and 7.3 million in 2021 (2021 and 2022 were the two best years ever), but still a solid year for employment gains. in early 2022. 10) Housing Inventory: Housing inventory decreased sharply during the pandemic to record lows in early 2022. Will there be a recession in 2025? million jobs in 2024.

Economics 290

Economics Economy Sales Commission 290

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

Firm billings have now decreased for the majority of firms every month except two since October 2022. In November, we saw the first positive score for multi-family since 2022. From the AIA: ABI December 2024: Business conditions end the year on a weak note The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score fell to 44.1

Clients 270

Clients Numbers Economics Investing 270

The Big Picture

MAY 15, 2025

August 9, 2022) More Sentiment Nonsense (July 28, 2023) The Trouble with Consumer Sentiment (July 8, 2022) Sentiment versus Spending (XXX) Is Partisanship Driving Consumer Sentiment? (October 19, 2023) More Inflation Expectations Silliness (July 5, 2023) Is Partisanship Driving Consumer Sentiment?

Media 222

Media Banking 222

Calculated Risk

MAY 21, 2025

Although the majority of units built-for-rent are still multi-family (blue) - even after the sharp decline in 2022 - there has been a significant pickup in single family units started built-for-rent (red). The first graph shows the number of single family and multi-family units started with the intent to rent.

Numbers 263

Numbers 263

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 2, 2024

Below 2022 Peak • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in September; Up 3.6% . • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.2% year-over-year in August • Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in September • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5%

Marketing 264

Marketing Marketing 264

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 14, 2025

in December 2022. The following graph uses Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) existing home inventory from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and new home inventory from the Census Bureau (only completed and under construction inventory). Then, with the pandemic, existing home inventory collapsed and now the percent of new homes is 22.4%

Marketing 278

Marketing Marketing Numbers Sales 278

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

In 2022, both new home sales and single-family starts turned down in response to higher mortgage rates. The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession. New home sales peaked in 2020 as pandemic buying soared.

Sales 309

Sales Economy Investing Investments 309

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 18, 2024

Most notable was the strength of billings growth in the West, where the score was the highest it has been since mid-2022. This was first positive score for multi-family since August 2022. Although billings continued to decline at firms located in the Northeast and Midwest, the pace of the decline slowed in both regions this month.

Numbers 281

Numbers Economics Investing Investments 281

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2025

YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9%

Numbers 278

Numbers Economics 278

Calculated Risk

JUNE 30, 2025

The percent of outstanding loans under 4% peaked in Q1 2022 at 65.1% (now at 53.4%), and the percent under 5% peaked at 85.6% (now at 71.3%). This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3% starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic.

205

205

The Big Picture

APRIL 28, 2025

2022 down 18% for the year.4 What has developed over the entirety of the post-financial crisis era of rising equity markets and until 2022, falling or zero interest rates.The good news is that this is how you build wealth over the long haul. 2015 gain of only 1.4% -2018 drop of 4.4%, including a Q4 drop of nearly 20%. -Q1

Risk Management 331

Risk Management Management Marketing Marketing 331

Calculated Risk

JULY 3, 2025

The index has exceeded 60 percent for seven straight months, with the May and June readings the highest since November 2022 (69.4 percent in June, a 1.2-percentage percentage point decrease from May’s reading of 68.7 emphasis added This was at consensus expectations, but employment was weak and prices paid very high.

Economy 113

Economy Economics Management 113

Calculated Risk

JULY 3, 2025

YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.7% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9%

Education 243

Education Numbers Economics Government 243

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2024

percent in June 2022. percent in February 2022. Real DPI increased 0.1 percent in September and real PCE increased 0.4 percent; goods increased 0.7 percent and services increased 0.2 emphasis added The September PCE price index increased 2.1 percent year-over-year (YoY), down from 2.3 percent YoY, unchanged from 2.7

Food 208

Food Taxes Economics 208

Calculated Risk

MARCH 28, 2025

percent in June 2022. percent in February 2022. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.8 percent from one year ago. emphasis added The February PCE price index increased 2.5 percent year-over-year (YoY) , unchanged from 2.5 percent YoY in January, and down from the recent peak of 7.2 percent YoY , up from 2.7

Food 255

Food Economics 255

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2025

below the peak in 2022. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Private residential (red) spending is 4.4% Private non-residential (blue) spending is 0.8% below the peak in February 2025. the peak the previous month.

268

268

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2024

in December 2022. It took a number of years following the housing bust for new home inventory to return to the pre-bubble percent of total inventory. Then, with the pandemic, existing home inventory collapsed and now the percent of new homes is 20.8% of the total for sale inventory, down from a peak of 27.2%

Marketing 277

Marketing Marketing Numbers Sales 277

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2024

YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9%

Retail 279

Retail Numbers Economics Sales 279

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 3, 2025

below the peak in 2022. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Private residential (red) spending is 4.2% Private non-residential (blue) spending is at a new peak. Public construction spending is 0.6%

236

236

Calculated Risk

APRIL 22, 2025

The Market Tightness Index came in at 52 this quarter above the breakeven level of 50 for the first time since July 2022 indicating tighter market conditions.

Marketing 285

Marketing Marketing Financial Market Sales 285

Calculated Risk

JULY 7, 2023

in June 2023 from June 2022 , their first decline in three months. million) were up 0.6% (32,547( carloads) over the same period in 2022 and were the highest since 2019. decline from June 2022 was their 16th straight. Carloads in 2021, 2022 and 2022: Total originated carloads (which don’t include intermodal) on U.S.

Retail 357

Retail Numbers 357

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2025

In 2022, both new home sales and single-family starts turned down in response to higher mortgage rates. The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession. I dismissed it when the yield curve inverted in 2019 and again in 2022. New home sales peaked in 2020 as pandemic buying soared.

Sales 241

Sales Economy Economics Investing 241

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 10, 2025

in December 2022. It took a number of years following the housing bust for new home inventory to return to the pre-bubble percent of total inventory. Then, with the pandemic, existing home inventory collapsed and now the percent of new homes is 25.1% of the total for sale inventory, down from a peak of 27.2%

Marketing 214

Marketing Marketing Numbers Sales 214

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 31, 2025

percent in June 2022. percent in February 2022. Personal saving was $843.2 billion in December and the personal saving ratepersonal saving as a percentage of disposable personal incomewas 3.8 emphasis added The December PCE price index increased 2.6 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.4 percent YoY, unchanged from 2.8

Food 162

Food Economics 162

Calculated Risk

APRIL 30, 2025

percent in June 2022. percent in February 2022. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.6 percent from one year ago. emphasis added The March PCE price index increased 2.3 percent year-over-year (YoY) , down from 2.7 percent YoY in February, and down from the recent peak of 7.2 percent YoY , down from 3.0

Food 165

Food Economics 165

Calculated Risk

JUNE 26, 2023

I stopped the weekly updates of high frequency indicators at the end of 2022. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue), 2022 (Orange) and 2023 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of June 25th.

Transportation 352

Transportation Numbers Sales 352

Calculated Risk

MAY 8, 2025

Last week boasted the highest number of new listings since mid-2022. New listings were the highest since 2022. The momentum from earlier this spring is still going strong, pointing to a lively market heading into late spring and early summer. The median list price was up 0.9% year-over-year.

Sales 179

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 179