Remove 2021 Remove Economy Remove Portfolio
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Observations to Start 2023

The Big Picture

Holding onto expectations of major shifts in key drivers of the markets and the economy – merely due to the changing of the calendar – is a carryover from the days when the calendar mattered much more. Consider: From 2010 through 2021, The S&P500 Index gained 330% — a little over 13% annually (not including dividends).

Economy 328
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Wednesday links: a new revenue model

Abnormal Returns

(allstarcharts.com) Bitcoin hit its highest level since November 2021. blockworks.co) Strategy Rubin Miller, "Investing on hopes and hunches — making emotional decisions — is why so few portfolios earn the actual market return." behaviouralinvestment.com) Why the 60/40 portfolio isn't going anywhere.

Valuation 273
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Danny Kahneman: What if Everything is Narrative Fallacy?

The Big Picture

2020: Covid : With the economy closed, people locked down, and local businesses crashing, many were expecting a replay of the previous market crash. 2021 Inflation Surge : In March 2021, CPI shot through the feds upside target of 2%. This was a money-losing set of narratives.

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Tuesday links: detrimental behavior

Abnormal Returns

capitalspectator.com) 2022 was the third worst year for the 60/40 portfolio. in 2022 vs. 2021. nytimes.com) The UK has 'deconverged' from the rest of the global economy. nytimes.com) Economy Where various measures of the jobs market stand. Markets How major asset classes performed in December 2022. etf.com) Global U.S.

Startup 242
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How Many Bear Markets Have You Lived Through?

The Big Picture

2 The current move from 2021 highs is shown in red. 2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. My portfolio was tiny; I had no 401k, and my wife’s 403(b), with less than a decade’s worth of contributions, was barely 5-figures.

Marketing 336
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10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture

New York Times ) Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Tom Wagner, Co-Portfolio Manager at Knighthead Capital. My morning train reads: • Stocks Took an 18-Month Round Trip From Tech Bear to AI Bull : The same handful of megacap names that led the market down have been powering the latest surge.

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Market Commentary: S&P 500 Approaching All-Time High but US Economic Momentum Slowing

Carson Wealth

This is why having a globally diversified portfolio can benefit US-centric investors, as the US won’t always lead. The index started with just 12 companies, representing major segments of the economy at the time, like leather, steel, and sugar. It was meant to gauge the overall health of the industrial sector.