Remove 2020 Remove Economy Remove Portfolio
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Observations to Start 2023

The Big Picture

Holding onto expectations of major shifts in key drivers of the markets and the economy – merely due to the changing of the calendar – is a carryover from the days when the calendar mattered much more. We can credit three elements for this massive outperformance: -Substantial prices resets: 57% in 2008-09 and 34% in 2020.

Economy 328
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Passive vs. Active

The Big Picture

What’s obvious is that cheaper is better than more expensive; that there are inherent costs in managing an active portfolio that include more than just trading and taxes but research, analysis, PMs, etc. Dangerous for economy. Concentrated portfolio risk. Barry Ritholtz (@ritholtz) August 13, 2020. Reached a mania.

Taxes 334
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The Many Ways the FOMC Can Be Wrong…

The Big Picture

However, this will only be known in the fullness of time, after inflation is tamed and the economy does not suffer too greatly from the cure. The Fed is right about inflation but lacks the appropriate tools to address the 2020 inflation cycle. There is a real possibility that the Fed’s diagnosis is correct. Before rates drop?

Economy 352
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How Many Bear Markets Have You Lived Through?

The Big Picture

2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. 2020 : Pandemic crash of 34%, fastest top fall (but fastest recovery) 2022 : Stocks & bonds both down double digits since 1981 All of these meet the unofficial definition of a bear of a 20% move off of the peak.

Marketing 336
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Monthly NFPs Are Rounding Errors

The Big Picture

1 This is significant for two reasons: First, it is a full 5 million more people working today than in January 2020, just before the pandemic struck. workers in the economy that excludes proprietors, private household employees, unpaid volunteers, farm employees, and the unincorporated self-employed. This is not a popular opinion.

Numbers 264
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Danny Kahneman: What if Everything is Narrative Fallacy?

The Big Picture

2020: Covid : With the economy closed, people locked down, and local businesses crashing, many were expecting a replay of the previous market crash. If you believed these stories, and acted on them, your portfolio probably did poorly in markets over this era. This was a money-losing set of narratives.

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Market Commentary: S&P 500 Approaching All-Time High but US Economic Momentum Slowing

Carson Wealth

This is why having a globally diversified portfolio can benefit US-centric investors, as the US won’t always lead. Since 1980, only 2020 would be better than 2025 so far. Other years that saw big returns after down days were 2003, 2008, 2009, 2020, and of course now. It fell 20.5% The best single day ever was a 15.3%