Calculated Risk

JUNE 7, 2024

The headline jobs number in the May employment report was well above expectations, however March and April payrolls were revised down by 15,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed little in May.

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million, changed little in March. million from 4.36

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 6, 2023

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 119,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 million from 4.22

Numbers 312

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 312

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8 YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8%

Numbers 277

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 277

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down by 101,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million from 4.07 million from 4.07

Retail 333

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 333

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 8, 2023

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 295,000 to 4.0

Retail 317

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 317

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When I put together my list of what was to blame for inflation , corporate profit-seeking was number (13 of 15). price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019. price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019. Economic Policy Institute, April 21, 2022).

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

The Big Picture

JUNE 22, 2023

Source: FRED Wealth disparities get ever more lopsided the higher up the economic strata you climb; there is more disparity with the top 1% than the top 10%, but the biggest spreads are at the top 0.1% (and above). Consider the chart at top, created by Invictus via FRED.

Distribution 306

Distribution Assets Numbers Economics 306

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 71,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 YoY in December.

Retail 302

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 302

Carson Wealth

JUNE 9, 2025

That’s well below the 209,000 average we saw back in December, and even below the 2019 pace of 166,000. If you’re well above this number, you can be fairly sure job growth is positive. If you’re at this number, like right now (and also seeing downward momentum), we can’t be sure the economy is actually creating any net jobs.

Economics 69

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 69

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions. Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy.

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

Calculated Risk

MAY 14, 2024

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining credit card utilization and its relationship with delinquency. An increasing number of borrowers missed credit card payments, revealing worsening financial distress among some households.” percentage points lower than the fourth quarter of 2019.

Economics 305

Economics Retail Banking Accounting 305

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019. My guess is multi-family starts will decline in 2023 as rents soften and as the record number of housing units under construction are completed. The red line is for 2023.

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) produces two measures of national output which, in theory, should be equivalent. Note: I will look at comparing to 2019 to remove the pandemic distortions.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

Calculated Risk

JULY 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations, however April and May payrolls were revised down by 111,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 million, changed little in June. million from 4.42

Numbers 211

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 211

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

institutionalinvestor.com) Amazon Amazon ($AMZN) is increasing the number of same-day shipping options. Sentencing Commission show judges rejected more than 80% of compassionate release requests filed from October 2019 through September 2022. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

Ethics 243

Ethics License Financial Advising Startup 243

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 16, 2022

I used seasonally-adjusted (SA) numbers where available, otherwise non-adjusted numbers (NSA). Labor Force Participation Rates 2019-2022. Participation Rates 2019 through 2022, October all years, BLS data, chart by Mish. Change in Participation Rate October 2022 Minus October 2019 16-19: +1.3 20-24: -1.6

Numbers 227

Numbers Retirement Economics 227

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 2, 2024

The headline jobs number in the January employment report was well above expectations, and November and December payrolls were revised up by 126,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " In January, the number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 Including revisions: The 3.06

Numbers 219

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 219

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

Well, in 2019, when your average money market fund was yielding zero and your average bond fund was yielding 2%, we used to scream, TINA — there is no alternative. And there’s a fair number of people who say 70%, two thirds of the stock market without any risk at all, market risk that is – sign me up for that.

Numbers 288

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 288

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

However, this shouldn’t be a big surprise because we knew Hurricanes Milton and Helene would weigh on the numbers. September payrolls were revised down by 31,000 to +223,000 jobs, and August was revised down by 81,000 to +78,000 (the first sub-100,000 monthly payroll number since December 2020). The 2017-2019 pace was 3.1%.)

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 96

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

See my post in 2019: Don't Freak Out about the Yield Curve ) For the economy, what I focus on is single family starts and new home sales. Note: The pandemic has distorted the economic data, and as I've noted many times, we can't be a slave to any model. 2) Significant policy error. (See

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 30, 2022

As well as IBM and Maersk, the project had support from a number of carriers, customs organisations, banks and transport providers to create an information ecosystem. blockchain) helps to address agency and coordination problems by offering flexibility when sharing information (Perera and Czachorowski 2019 ).

License 219

License Transportation Distribution Banking 219

Calculated Risk

MARCH 8, 2024

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed little in February.

Numbers 173

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 173

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

Monthly numbers can be noisy and so a 3-month average is helpful. Thats running at a solid 170,000 per month, versus an average of 166,000 in 2019. million in 2023 but well in the ballpark of what we saw in 2017-2019 (2.1 in 2018-2019. in 2018-2019). The economy created over 2 million jobs in 2024, down from 2.4

Marketing 76

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 76

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 23, 2023

Economic indicators across consumption, income, industry and the labor market don’t point to a recession. Let’s Call It Like It Is: The Economy Is Strong, and There’s No Recession on the Horizon A year ago, a Bloomberg Economics model projected a recession within the next 12 months with 100% probability. in the third quarter.

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 143

Carson Wealth

MARCH 3, 2025

Given our overall still positive economic backdrop, to see this much worry in the air is actually rather bullish and why we dont expect the recent weakness to spiral out of control. So, imports are just subtracting all the goods and services households and businesses buy from abroad, since it doesnt add to domestic economic activity.

Marketing 78

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 78

Carson Wealth

JUNE 10, 2024

We didn’t even see significant revisions to March and April payroll numbers, and the 3-month average now sits at 249,000. In 2019, average monthly job growth was 166,000. The payroll number comes from the “establishment survey,” which is a survey of about 119,000 businesses and government agencies (about 629,000 worksites).

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 143

Brown Advisory

NOVEMBER 1, 2019

2019 Year-End Planning Letter. Fri, 11/01/2019 - 13:44. These conditions present a variety of challenges for investors; more germane to our discussion in this letter, they also present a number of planning opportunities that may require near-term action. Treasuries). Opportunity Zone Investments.

Planning 52

Planning Taxes Clients Assets 52

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 8, 2024

Goldilocks Job Numbers as Economy Powers Ahead The December payroll report was strong on the surface, with 216,000 jobs created last month and the unemployment rate firm at 3.7%. In fact, the average annual number of jobs gained from 2010-2019 was 2.2 Another 20% gain is possible, however, as it has happened before four times.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 96

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 12, 2024

The late week rebound was supported by better economic data, including some good jobs-related numbers. But as the week progressed things calmed down and better economic data showed fears of a recession were once again overblown. The current number remains consistent with the 2018-2019 average, despite a larger labor force now.

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Numbers Economy 95

Carson Wealth

JULY 8, 2024

That is the best ‘worst day of the month’ since November 2019 and second best since February 2017! These numbers can and will be revised, and so it helps to look at the 3-month average. That number has been trending down since earlier this year, but it’s at a healthy 177,000 right now, above the 166,000 average pace in 2019.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 97

Carson Wealth

JULY 29, 2024

Q2 GDP Growth Confirms Economic Resilience The economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.8% It’s a very solid, but not spectacular, number, just in the top half of all quarters since 2010, but looking at it in the context of the rate environment shows just how resilient the economy has been. almost broke the economy in 2019.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Transportation 97

Zoe Financial

MAY 8, 2023

Economic Data: April’s growth came in at 253,000, above expectations. First quarter 2023 earnings are now tracking toward negative 4.5% (the market was expecting even worse numbers). The S&P 500 was up 1.9 for the week%, meaning it’s up 8% year-to-date. Nasdaq was up 2.3% for the week and is now up 18% year-to-date.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Financial Advisor Wealth Advisor 98

Brown Advisory

JULY 23, 2019

2019 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting ajackson Tue, 07/23/2019 - 09:50 The Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting is an opportunity for shareholders and analysts to pose questions to Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. Buffett places a very high value on this float but won’t give a number. versus 9.7%

Insurance 52

Insurance Investing Investments Management 52

Brown Advisory

JULY 23, 2019

2019 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting. Tue, 07/23/2019 - 09:50. companies, with nearly 400,000 employees and an equity market capitalization of over $500 billion as of June 30, 2019. Buffett places a very high value on this float but won’t give a number. after Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet and Facebook.

Insurance 52

Insurance Investing Investments Management 52

Trade Brains

FEBRUARY 22, 2024

Yes Bank vs IDFC Bank : Banks are the economic engine. According to the FY23 report, the total number of employees was 27,517. The Indian banking industry has been on a roll, thanks to strong economic growth, rising disposable incomes, increased consumerism, and easier credit access. 2019-20 ₹ 6,793.96 ₹ 6,012.05

Banking 104

Banking Planning Accounting Retail 104

Carson Wealth

MAY 6, 2024

Stocks gained for the second week in a row, as strong earnings, a dovish Fed, and a “Goldilocks” job number sparked buying. The April jobs number showed a healthy job market while easing concerns that the economy is overheating. The overall inflation numbers, including for core inflation, can hide what’s happening beneath the surface.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 97