Calculated Risk

JANUARY 21, 2025

economy still has challenges, especially lingering inflation and poor consumer sentiment, many important economic metrics are outperforming the 2008 cycle (the most recent nonpandemic business cycle and the cycle in which the first Trump administration began), and some are even at historical highs. Table 1 below summarizes recent U.S.

Economy

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 21, 2024

From the fund page : the goal is seeking stable returns across a variety of economic and financial market conditions, consistent with the preservation of capital. Plenty of other managed futures funds came onto the scene in 2013 and 2014 but I think RYMFX is the only one to test what was a terrible time for managed futures.

Asset Allocation

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 18, 2024

Lastly, no year has ended with 51 new highs, but we had 53 in both 1961 and 2014, suggesting more new highs are likely this year with about six weeks still left to go. There’s been a question about whether the Fed should be cutting when economic growth and the stock market are running strong. We couldn’t agree more.

Marketing

Validea

JUNE 2, 2025

Each of these asset classes tends to perform well in different economic regimes, making the All Weather strategy a compelling option for long-term investors who prioritize consistency and downside protection. All Weather Portfolio: Asset Class Behavior Across Economic Regimes Asset Class Performs Well In Why It’s Included U.S.

Portfolio

The Big Picture

JANUARY 21, 2025

And after I got my last urine bonus in early 2014, I walked in and handed, handed my notice. And I think it partly depends on the economic comfort in which you grew up. I was in my, I was 51, so I spent 10 or 11 months preparing to leave. I contacted the journal about writing for them again, I also started working on a book.

Investments

The Big Picture

APRIL 24, 2025

Let us stop for a moment to consider all that is going on with the new administration’s new economic trade policies at ~100 days. That is before we get to other issues with economic long-term ramifications.1 There is a new tariff policy that is (by design) threatening the pre-existing global trade order.

Economy

Wealth Management

AUGUST 5, 2025

In 2014, he sold both the software and the RIA to a middle-market private equity firm in Philadelphia called NewSpring. What we do for our 1099s we do for our W-2s; it’s just a different economic model. The founder also set up a straight-ahead RIA, which he called Wealthcare, and it was based on the use of that planning software.

Wealth Management

The Better Letter

MARCH 27, 2025

In 2014 , the use of replay in MLB was expanded and is now an expected part of the game, as it is in all major professional sports, even though “judgment calls” like balls and strikes, remain unreviewable. The NBA followed suit in 2002. Larry Vanover was the worst, at 92.1 Notice how much higher those scores (even the worst score!)

Accounting

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 11, 2025

Stanford Bachelor’s in Economics and Sociology and a Master’s in Public Policy. I, my dad’s a economics professor and so economics seemed like a good undergraduate plan, but frankly at the time my real plan was to go play professional baseball. Let’s start out with your background.

Media

Trade Brains

JULY 27, 2025

Explosive economic growth, rural-urban migration and the massive injection of infrastructure investment have fuelled these city expansions. The development of Mumbai is quite good and is supported by: Economic magnet: Banking, Bollywood and Financial Capital hosting stock exchanges. Lack of affordable housing in the outer suburbs.

Education

Trade Brains

JULY 10, 2025

Year Event / Milestone Cost (₹ crore) Remarks 2014 Govt. It should also create goodwill for real estate development, through enhanced access to institutions, real estate and economic growth along the corridor. of India approved Phase II ₹26,405.14

Transportation

The Big Picture

JUNE 17, 2024

These reflect the economic dominance of one specific part of the economy or another for very long periods of time. They are based on historical data that looks at 200 Years of Market Concentration. You might be surprised at the findings. As the chart above shows, there are long periods of market concentration.

Marketing

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2023. million to 1.5

Economy

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

This brings us to the chart: The one above shows the traffic of prospective buyers looking at a new home (2014- 2022); the one below goes back to the 1980s. The four largest drops occurred during distinct periods of economic distress: 1990 (recession), 2006-09 (GFC), 2020 (pandemic/recession), and today (FOMC 300 bp rate hike).

Budgeting

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a 42% probability of a contraction in the U.S. Short answer: Maybe a quarter ahead (but not always). Beyond that short time frame, it’s simply too variable: “These questions have taken on particular importance recently. appeared first on The Big Picture.

Economy

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 7, 2022

2020s : Remained on emergency footing post Covid, despite broad evidence of economic recovery. How Greenspan Became the ex-Maestro (August 11, 2014). 2000s : Kept rates too low for too long following 9/11 and dotcom implosion – FOMC Rate did not get over 1% until 2004. Previously : Farewell, TINA (September 28, 2022). June 9, 2022).

Banking

The Big Picture

JUNE 22, 2023

Source: FRED Wealth disparities get ever more lopsided the higher up the economic strata you climb; there is more disparity with the top 1% than the top 10%, but the biggest spreads are at the top 0.1% (and above). Consider the chart at top, created by Invictus via FRED. And, it has accelerated over the past few decades.

Distribution

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). 2014 62.8% -0.1 2014 62.8% -0.1 2014 62.8% -0.1 in December, down 0.4

Economics

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

And it was a miserable economic time, with both of these elevated measures together creating a period of unhappy people that the Misery index neatly captured. As Zunbrun observes, “ The Misery Index, as commonly constructed, doesn’t adequately capture how overall economic conditions affect attitudes.”. 46, October 2014).

Economics

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. Prior to the pandemic, economic activity was mostly in the 2% range since 2010. 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy

Brown Advisory

MARCH 1, 2014

The Advisory | March 2014. Sat, 03/01/2014 - 14:15. to emerging markets, big-picture economic expectations and on-theground reality for companies were out of sync in 2013. From the U.S. Here’s why both are important.

Economics

The Big Picture

MAY 16, 2023

Major coastal metros have been hubs of the kind of educated workers coveted most by high-powered employers and economic development officials. Well, the consolidation we predicted has happened: Last year saw 112 hospital mergers (up 18% from 2014). Now College Graduates Are Leaving, Too.

Economy

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 2, 2023

Not So Fast (April 3, 2020) Redefining Bull and Bear Markets (August 14, 2017) Secular market cycles reflect geo-political, economic and technological issues of era (November 15, 2014) Is the Secular Bear Market Coming to an End? Cyclical Markets (May 16, 2022) End of the Secular Bull?

Taxes

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

It uses (13 or so) inputs 1 to extrapolate a rough approximation of economic growth. The error range can be large, especially early in the quarter , or when an economic shock occurs, such as early in the 2020 Pandemic. Higgins Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, July 1, 2014 1.

Banking

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% The "Art of the Soft Landing" requires that the Fed reduce rates quick enough to keep economic growth positive, and slow enough not to reignite inflation. 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 9, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). 2014 62.8% -0.1 2014 62.8% -0.1 2014 62.8% -0.1 in November 2022.

Economics

The Big Picture

JANUARY 13, 2024

Perhaps we’ve all just become economic snowflakes? Finance in 2023 The Periodic Table of Commodity Returns (2014-2023) Source: Visual Capitalist Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here. ~~~ I am still on book leave! Financial Times ) • China Wants To Ditch The Dollar : Should Beijing successfully wean the world off the U.S.

Portfolio Management

Discipline Funds

MARCH 26, 2024

I wrote a fun new paper about the top 10 thing s in finance and economics that are my pet peeves. The article was inspired by the wonderful Cliff Asness paper from 2014 in which he debunks many common finance myths. Many of the things that annoy Cliff also annoy me, but I tend to get more annoyed by bad economic narratives.

Economics

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 22, 2022

Reservation Wage Between March 2014 and March 2020 Working: +19.3 Respondents’ satisfaction with wage compensation, non-wage benefits, and promotion opportunities at their current job all improved in November compared to July. What is the lowest wage or salary you would accept (BEFORE taxes and other deductions) for this job?

Food

The Big Picture

AUGUST 17, 2023

When any new economic release comes out, you really don’t know how much is noise and how much is signal. Economic data is especially noisy, subject to revision, and based on models that are “ wrong but useful.” If you learn how to properly frame data, you can avoid errors of this kind. The long term is a series of short terms.

Economics

Nationwide Financial

APRIL 3, 2023

recovered from the sharp drop during the pandemic but has been declining since the November peak and is down nearly two-thirds since 2014. Economic data remains largely benign, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasting growth of 2.5% in the first quarter, and the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index near the highest level in a year.

Marketing

Trade Brains

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

Not only the elections but also the presentation of the budget, economic policies, the popularity of the leader, economic events and other factors, can send ripples through the stock market. Before the May 2014 election, the Sensex went up by 16.6% in one month and 20.6% in one year. How Markets Performed During Past Elections?

Marketing

Validea

AUGUST 23, 2024

A high ROE often indicates a company has a durable competitive advantage or “economic moat.” per share in 2014 to $6.13 Apple’s brand power, ecosystem of products and services, and loyal customer base provide the type of economic moat Buffett seeks. in 2014 to $11.83 in 2014 to $6.87 per share.

Economics

Trade Brains

SEPTEMBER 12, 2023

Let’s look back in time and see how Nifty got to where it is today, from when it started in 1996 to reach 20,000 points, and how it dealt with different economic challenges: 1996 – Birth of Nifty50 The Nifty 50 index was launched on April 22, 1996, at 1,107 points, with a base value of 1,000 counted from November 3, 1995.

Numbers

Brown Advisory

APRIL 21, 2023

Priyanka Agnihotri ( Sustainable International Leaders ) watches macroeconomic data points closely in an effort to understand where we are in a particular economic cycle. However, the strategy primarily focuses on business quality, and she seeks to invest in companies that she believes can hold up well under a range of economic scenarios.

Portfolio Management

Validea

OCTOBER 19, 2022

The last time gold had two consecutive years of negative returns was 2014 and 2015. Perhaps that pattern will hold in 2023 and 2024 and gold holders will be better rewarded, even if inflation subsides and the economic environment improves. Tool: [link]. The yellow metal then saw two positive years.

Investments

Brown Advisory

JULY 1, 2014

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 14:01. Few economic variables change as slowly as population, yet demographic trends are among the most important determinants of a company’s (or, for that matter, a nation’s) growth over time. Investment Perspectives | Glacial Change. Like glaciers, demographics move predictably and inexorably.

Investments