The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

The Paris Review, February 3, 2014) The post Tulipmania! Previously : 1 2 3 See also : Is This a Bubble? Ben Carlson, January 31, 2025) Tulipomania! appeared first on The Big Picture.

Marketing 295

Marketing Marketing 295

A Wealth of Common Sense

JANUARY 7, 2025

The first asset allocation quilt I created for this site covered the ten-year period from 2005-2014. Those returns look nothing like the last 10 years which is the whole point of this exercise. Here’s the latest quilt: Some observations: Inflation outperformed TIPS.The average inflation rate over the past 10 years was around 2.9%

Asset Allocation 139

Asset Allocation Assets 139

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 3, 2025

The left graph is from 1990 to 2014. This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts. This graph is for demand and shows that demand has been weak since late 2021. The right graph is from 2015 to Q4 2024.

Banking 162

Banking Marketing Marketing 162

Nerd's Eye View

JUNE 9, 2025

It quickly became a perennial favorite on Nerd's Eye View, and so I've updated it every year, with new lists of books in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and a fresh round last year in 2024.

Financial Advisor 180

Financial Advisor Financial Planner Financial Advice Clients 180

The Big Picture

JUNE 17, 2024

Bryan Taylor, Chief Economist at Global Financial Data, breaks these into seven distinct eras over the past 235 years: 1790 to 1840 The Bank of the United States Dominates 1840 to 1875 The Rise of the Railroads 1875 to 1929 The American Commercial Revolution 1929 to 1964 The First (..)

Marketing 314

Marketing Marketing Engineering Economics 314

The Big Picture

JANUARY 29, 2025

February 17, 2015) Click for video [link] Source: Economics Media Library The post The Daily Show: Wage Against the Machine appeared first on The Big Picture.

Media 112

Media Economics 112

Calculated Risk

MAY 8, 2023

The left graph is 1990 to 2014. Standards tightened for all consumer loan categories; demand weakened for auto and other consumer loans, while it remained basically unchanged for credit cards. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts.

Banking 363

Banking Government Marketing Marketing 363

Wealth Management

DECEMBER 21, 2022

That was the 11th consecutive quarter of gains, the longest streak since 2014.

Banking 272

Banking Marketing Marketing 272

Calculated Risk

MAY 12, 2025

The left graph is from 1990 to 2014. This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts. This graph is for demand and shows that demand has been weak since late 2021. The right graph is from 2015 to Q1 2025.

Banking 147

Banking Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 5, 2024

The left graphs are from 1990 to 2014. This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts. This graph is for demand and shows that demand has declined. The right graphs are from 2015 to Q2 2024.

Banking 329

Banking 329

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 30, 2022

For in depth description of these issues, see Jed Kolko's article from 2014 "Let’s Improve, Not Ignore, Seasonal Adjustment of Housing Data" Note: I was one of several people to question the change in the seasonal factor (here is a post in 2009 ) - and this led to S&P Case-Shiller questioning the seasonal factor too ( from April 2010 ).

Sales 355

Sales 355

Wealth Management

JUNE 26, 2025

Between 2014 and 2024, Mason transferred client funds into his own accounts and those of the two entities without clients’ authorization, according to the SEC. Mason, who ran Rubicon Wealth Management, a registered investment advisor in Gladwyne, Pa., He pleaded guilty to all of the criminal charges.

Clients 271

Clients Estate Planning Wealth Management Planning 271

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

The left graph is 1990 to 2014. Moreover, for credit card, auto, and other consumer loans, standards reportedly tightened, and demand weakened on balance. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts. This shows that demand has declined.

Banking 328

Banking Government 328

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 18, 2024

Let’s have a look: Over the 10 year period from 2014 to 2023, CA has grown its QSR workforce by 31.5% The fact that California has trounced the rest of the country over the course of a decade tells me much more than a relatively small loss over the course of three quarters. to only 19.5% to just 18.8%

Food 304

Food Math Numbers Economics 304

A Wealth of Common Sense

MARCH 16, 2025

Coming into 2025 the S&P 500 had just two down years out of the past 15: 2010 +14.8% 2024 +24.9% We were all probably a little spoiled. Regardless of the reason for the recent swoon, we were due.

118

118

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2025

Real GDP Growth Year Annual GDP Q4 / Q4 2005 3.5% 2008 0.1% -2.5% 2009 -2.6% 2020 -2.2% -1.0% 2024 1 2.8% 1 2024 estimate based on 2.8% Q4 SAAR annualized real growth rate.

Economy 173

Economy Economics Sales Investing 173

Wealth Management

APRIL 13, 2023

Mack led Wells Fargo Advisors from 2014 until mid-2016.

Retirement 217

Retirement 217

Wealth Management

JUNE 16, 2023

The SEC said on Friday that Pimco failed to disclose key information to investors about how swaps could impact its PIMCO Global StocksPLUS & Income Fund between 2014 and 2016.

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222

The Reformed Broker

JUNE 2, 2023

This week, Michael Batnick, Cathie Wood, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss investing in innovation, AI fact vs fiction, how big Tesla can get, why Ark bought Nvidia in 2014, Zoom vs Google Meet vs Microsoft Teams, and much more! Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. Listen here: Apple podcasts Spoti.

Investing 246

Investing Investments Marketing Marketing 246

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2024

million units, virtually the same as the average for the first quarters from 2014 to 2023 (3.28 The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2022, 2023 and 2024: (using intermodal or shipping containers): U.S. railroads originated 1.02 It’s their seventh straight year-over-year gain. million).

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306

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

The second table shows the change in construction and manufacturing payrolls starting in 2006.

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

This brings us to the chart: The one above shows the traffic of prospective buyers looking at a new home (2014- 2022); the one below goes back to the 1980s. The four largest drops occurred during distinct periods of economic distress: 1990 (recession), 2006-09 (GFC), 2020 (pandemic/recession), and today (FOMC 300 bp rate hike).

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363

A Wealth of Common Sense

FEBRUARY 28, 2025

In the past decade alone the total value of the housing market has more than doubled (from $23 trillion in 2014). According to Redfin, the U.S. housing market is now worth a stone’s throw from $50 trillion: Depedning on the day, that puts the housing market roughly on par with the total value of the U.S. stock market.

Marketing 131

Marketing Marketing 131

Calculated Risk

APRIL 13, 2023

As I noted in 2014, this was positive for apartments, and more recently positive for housing. In 2022, the top 6 cohorts were under 45 (the Boomers are fading away), and by 2030 the top 10 cohorts will be the youngest 10 cohorts.

Economy 363

Economy Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

JUNE 13, 2025

The number of salesperson's licenses started increasing again in 2014 (after house prices bottomed), and peaked again in early 2024 (ignoring weird pandemic distortion). The number of agents peaked at the end of 2007 (housing activity peaked in 2005, and prices in 2006). Click on graph for larger image. year-over-year. year-over-year).

License 147

License Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 19, 2023

This was written in 2014, but I never published it! A short comment on "short memories". Voters have "short memories". Sometimes "short memories" are good. Albert Schweitzer once said, "Happiness is nothing more than good health and a bad memory".

Budgeting 277

Budgeting Economy 277

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2023

The Zillow index started in 2014, the ApartmentList index started in 2017, and CoreLogic in 2004. Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Rents Continue to Decline More than Seasonally Normal A brief excerpt: OER and rent of primary residence have mostly moved together.

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244

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

Random Shocks and Business Cycles by Thorsten Drautzburg Economic Insights, Q1 2019 Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia An astonishing record – of complete failure Tim Harford FT, May 30, 2014 The post Can Economists Predict Recessions? appeared first on The Big Picture.

Economy 295

Economy Banking Economics 295

The Big Picture

JANUARY 25, 2023

appeared first on The Big Picture.

Management 304

Management Investing Investments Financial Market 304

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 7, 2022

How Greenspan Became the ex-Maestro (August 11, 2014). Previously : Farewell, TINA (September 28, 2022). Blame the Fed For Everything! June 9, 2022). Normalization vs Inflation (March 14, 2022). Who is to Blame, 1-25 (June 29, 2009). _. For the full calendar year 2020, the total return for the S&P 50 index was 18.4%; the 67.9%

Banking 336

Banking Economics Portfolio Assets 336

Calculated Risk

JULY 31, 2023

The left graph is 1990 to 2014. Furthermore, standards tightened for all consumer loan categories; demand weakened for auto and other consumer loans, while it remained basically unchanged for credit card loans. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This shows that demand has declined. The right graph is 2015 to Q1 2023.

Banking 246

Banking Government 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 18, 2022

Sales are now below pre-pandemic levels and, excluding the pandemic decline, sales are the lowest level since 2014. Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.81 million SAAR in July Excerpt: ales in July (4.81 million SAAR) were down 5.9% from the previous month and were 20.2%

Sales 249

Sales Marketing Marketing 249

The Big Picture

JUNE 22, 2023

Using IRS data, University of California at Berkeley’s Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman’s 2014 study found: The share of total wealth of the top 1% has increased steadily, from below 25% in 1978 to 42% in 2012. And, it has accelerated over the past few decades. The share of total wealth of the top 0.1%

Distribution 304

Distribution Assets Numbers Economics 304

Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2023

Mortgage originations, which include refinances, dropped sharply in the first quarter of 2023 to $324 billion, the lowest level seen since 2014. In total, non-housing balances grew by $24 billion. The volume of newly originated auto loans was $162 billion, a reduction from pandemic-era highs but still elevated compared to pre-Covid volumes.

Retail 335

Retail Banking Accounting 335

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

For in depth description of these issues, see Jed Kolko's article from 2014 "Let’s Improve, Not Ignore, Seasonal Adjustment of Housing Data" Note: I was one of several people to question the change in the seasonal factor (here is a post in 2009 ) - and this led to S&P Case-Shiller questioning the seasonal factor too ( from April 2010 ).

Sales 237

Sales 237

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 1, 2024

Prior to founding Oak HC/FT in 2014, Annie spent 28 years at Oak Investment Partners, where she served as a Managing Partner and led the healthcare and fintech practices. This week, we speak with Annie Lamont, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Oak HC/FT.

Management 179

Management Healthcare Investing Investments 179

The Big Picture

APRIL 17, 2025

Since its 2014 inception, the fund has returned 9.7% You see this all the time: After a huge run of spectacular gains, the media fetes a manager, and buyers pour in late. The inevitable mean-reversion soon follows. The average ARKK investor has seen results far worse than the fund itself, according to data from Morningstar.

Investing 266

Investing Investments Accounting Startup 266