Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

Over a decade ago, in 2013, I wrote a post " Predicting the Next Recession. During the previous Trump administration, we saw several policy errors, like the failed TCJA ( Tax Cut and Jobs Act ), but none that were significant enough to take the economy into a recession (I stayed positive on the economy back then).

Ethics 243

Ethics Economy Taxes Numbers 243

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 19, 2025

At The Money: Jeff Hirsch Why Big Federal Spending Plus Inflation = Superbooms (February, 19 2025) Wars, national defense spending, technology innovations historically, these have had big impacts on the economy. boots on the ground in massive numbers is what created this pattern or initially created it. We’ve mentioned defense.

Economy 144

Economy Medical Government Marketing 144

The Better Letter

MARCH 18, 2025

Nigl’s bracket finally went bust on game 50 (the third game on the second weekend) when three seed Purdue defeated number two Tennessee, 99-94, in overtime. And about 60 percent of national champions are one of the four number one seeds. A roulette wheel hitting the same number seven times in a row ( one in three billion ).

Numbers 76

Numbers Marketing Marketing Medicine 76

The Big Picture

JUNE 2, 2025

00:04:13 [Speaker Changed] You’ve held a number of roles there eventually becoming a senior partner, but the two that are most fascinating and relevant to your current situation is chief risk officer and Chief Financial Officer. And we had, I don’t remember the number, 60, 70, 80 partners plus another several hundred associates.

Economy 130

Economy Economics Numbers Banking 130

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 17, 2025

So during my time there, I was probably employee number four or five. 00:16:33 [Speaker Changed] So I’m, I’m hinting at a question that’s gonna come a little later, but my general sense is, you know, developed mature economies have fairly efficient markets, very hard to generate alpha because markets are so efficient.

Investments 144

Investments Investing Economics Marketing 144

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). And other measures of the economy were also positive, especially employment. Way back in 2013, I wrote a post " Predicting the Next Recession.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Way back in 2013, I wrote a post " Predicting the Next Recession. Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. My answer is: Maybe.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 8, 2023

That is a significant number to recall whenever people posit we either are in, or just were in, or are about to tumble into a recession. but most months, the specific number is more or less a rounding error. It was that 157.087 million people are employed full-time in the United States.1 This is not a popular opinion.

Numbers 261

Numbers Retirement Economy Accounting 261

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

Consider these columns going back to 2013 pointing out the foolishness of tax-payer subsidized corporate welfare queens (2013), and why median wages were rising ( 2016 , 2017 , 2018 , 2018 , 2019 ). By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions. Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy.

Medicine 329

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 329

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Way back in 2013, I wrote a post " Predicting the Next Recession. Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. 2) Significant policy error.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2023

It is one of those round numbers that people just kinda made up and started with for no apparent reason. But the 2% inflation target is LITERALLY a random number 2 that originated in New Zealand in the 1980s. The economy was sluggish, job creation as weak, consumer spending was soft. Their PTSD is palpable. a witch!)

Economy 246

Economy Economics Numbers Banking 246

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. 2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked.

Marketing 335

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 335

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2023

That number has now reached nearly 32%. The Amazon founder, who purchased The Washington Post for $250 million in 2013, has taken a more active role in the paper’s operations this year. ( Her new book is Crash Landing: The Inside Story of How the World’s Biggest Companies Survived an Economy on the Brink.

Food 243

Food Economy Banking Numbers 243

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

So what were the numbers like after World War 1 and after World War 2? Jeff Hirsch : The numbers, it was about just around 500 percent, 517%, 521%, right in the just over 500%. And the Dow didn’t actually hit that number until, uh, it was July of 1992, but the S&P had the 500 percent move-in. Following both wars.

Marketing 312

Marketing Marketing Government Numbers 312

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 7, 2024

Strong Job Numbers Are Good News for the Economy and Markets There’s been valid concern that employment conditions are deteriorating, ever so slowly. If you combine wage growth with employment growth and hours worked, we get a sense of aggregate income growth across all workers in the economy. in April 2023 to 4.3%

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 96

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

I wasn’t that typical person that did a number of, you know, internships during the summer, had that …. BITTERLY MICHELL: … obviously, the United States, the global economy. The concept of a Fed put was really important in terms of the overall direction, so it absolutely impacts the economy and markets. RITHOLTZ: Right.

Clients 293

Clients Wealth Management Banking Investing 293

Trade Brains

DECEMBER 13, 2023

India’s IPO market has made a strong comeback this year, making it the global leader in the number of IPOs so far in 2023 and attracting investors to take advantage of the renewed interest in public offerings on Dalal Street. What do the numbers tell about IPOs? 2014 5 0.14 2015 21 1.63 2016 26 3.18 2017 36 8.06 2018 24 3.71

Numbers 64

Numbers Retail Startup Investing 64

Trade Brains

FEBRUARY 22, 2024

The higher the asset quality of banks, the better the state of the economy. Banks facilitate the flow of money in markets following monetary policy, which determines the economy’s growth and decline. According to the FY23 report, the total number of employees was 27,517. in November 2015. Price to Book Value 1.06

Banking 104

Banking Planning Accounting Retail 104

Carson Wealth

MAY 1, 2023

Sure, more volatility and negative headlines could happen, but with overall market sentiment extremely bearish and the economy on firmer footing than most investors seem to think, we suggest using seasonal weakness as an opportunity to add to core positions. economy expanded by only 1.1% Beyond the numbers, what matters is the trend.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 52

Good Financial Cents

DECEMBER 14, 2022

Bureau of Labor Statistics, employment numbers for Financial Managers are expected to rise by 17% over the next decade , faster than the average for all occupations. Employment numbers for Financial Managers are expected to rise by 17% over the next decade, faster than the average for all occupations. According to the U.S.

Budgeting 88

Budgeting Compliance Accounting Insurance 88

Trade Brains

APRIL 12, 2023

The most engaging aspect is that the Stock exchanges are also deemed as the financial measures of an economy where industrial development and firmness are mirrored in the index. It was formed by the merger of the two companies on January 1, 2013. In Closing In a country’s economy, stock exchanges play a critical role.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Electronics Government 105

Validea

NOVEMBER 18, 2022

There’s some skepticism about investing at a time when the economy is slowing, will the [return on investment] reward the higher cost of capital?” And indeed, the number of business leaders who plan to up their capital spending is at its lowest point since 2013, according to data from the New York Federal Reserve. Hammond says.

Planning 52

Planning Investing Investments Economy 52

The Irrelevant Investor

JANUARY 28, 2019

million miles of roads between 1996 and 2016 Between 2011 and 2013, China used more cement than the U.S. million miles of roads between 1996 and 2016 Between 2011 and 2013, China used more cement than the U.S. How much money would you put into this country's stock market? So how much better did China's stock market do versus ours?

Numbers 52

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 52

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 6, 2022

I did in 2013 the largest banking transaction that the market had seen since the financial crisis, it was a $2.4 And I did the math, and I think at that point in time, roughly speaking, assets in ETS were roughly just 10 percent, 12 percent of assets in mutual funds and I was pretty convinced that that number was to increase significantly.

Clients 157

Clients Investing Investments Management 157

The Irrelevant Investor

APRIL 1, 2021

The oldest Millennials entered the workforce while the economy was booming. I remember when I entered the job market in the 70s (yes, I’m a boomer) we bemoaned our fate of being boomers because we were being spewed out of college and into the labor force in unprecedented numbers, driving competition for jobs up and wages down.

Retirement 52

Retirement Assets Numbers Economy 52

Brown Advisory

AUGUST 1, 2018

Even as the “E” (earnings) component of the P/E ratio has increased in 2018 thanks to the strong economy and tax cuts, the “P” (price) component has moved up more, and valuations have risen perceptibly. equity market’s gain since early 2017 has been concentrated in a relatively small number of sectors and specific stocks. Many non-U.S.

Management 52

Management Investments Investing Valuation 52

Brown Advisory

AUGUST 1, 2018

Even as the “E” (earnings) component of the P/E ratio has increased in 2018 thanks to the strong economy and tax cuts, the “P” (price) component has moved up more, and valuations have risen perceptibly. equity market’s gain since early 2017 has been concentrated in a relatively small number of sectors and specific stocks. Many non-U.S.

Management 52

Management Investments Investing Valuation 52

The Better Letter

JUNE 7, 2024

NFL quarterbacks are the most important players in any sport (rules changes in 2013 to benefit the passing game accelerated an existing trend). 5 In 2013, In 2009, Indianapolis got to the Super Bowl despite paying Peyton Manning a staggering 17.2 There are ways for teams to juggle their cap numbers, of course.

Investing 88

Investing Investments Management Education 88

The Better Letter

MARCH 14, 2024

And about 60 percent of national champions are one of the four number one seeds. A roulette wheel hitting the same number seven times in a row ( one in three billion ). In June 2002, electrician Mike McDermott won £194,501 on the UK National Lottery after correctly choosing five numbers and the bonus ball.

Numbers 87

Numbers Medicine Math Marketing 87

Trade Brains

NOVEMBER 4, 2023

Best Algo Trading Software in India : In today’s fast-paced world, the advent of advanced technologies has created an impact in almost every sector of the economy. Tickeron Established in 2013, Tickeron is an interactive marketplace that provides sophisticated AI-driven trading tools to investors and traders.

Assets 111

Assets Planning Financial Market Retail 111

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 21, 2023

I would say the thing that connects them is just voracious curiosity about the world of politics and, you know, economies and trying to make sense out of it. 00:17:50 You wanna know why Dara reported for Uber that again, their number of employees was down quarter of over quarter. You know, all of these things. I think this year.

Investing 246

Investing Investments Startup Accounting 246

Truemind Capital

JANUARY 16, 2024

Global growth exceeded projections, primarily propelled by the resilient performance of the US economy. Some allocation of 5-7% in portfolios focused on the Chinese economy can be taken given multi-decades low valuation, which may not sustain in a large economy expected to grow at 3-4% annually over the long term.

Financial Market 52

Financial Market Marketing Marketing Asset Allocation 52

Truemind Capital

OCTOBER 22, 2021

Here is the simple economic logic – if the rate of money printing is higher than the rate of production of goods and services in an economy, the prices will increase. All the economies are getting affected by a sharp rise in inflation. Remember the taper tantrum of 2013?

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Banking Economics 52

Brown Advisory

JULY 1, 2015

Rising interest rates influence the economy and financial markets in several ways—most of them negative. At a time when global economies are closely linked by trade and financial markets, this divergence only adds to uncertainty. Period April 30, 2013, through April 30, 2015. In the last couple of quarters, a number of U.S.-based

Investments 52

Investments Investing Banking Economy 52

Trade Brains

SEPTEMBER 6, 2022

The BSE Sensex increased from 22,386 in FY 2013-14 to 58,568 in FY 2021-22 making India’s stock market the 8th largest in the world. An increase in trading volumes, a record number of IPOs, improving retail participation, growing FPIs presence, and ease of account opening & online initiatives brought about this expansion.

Retail 52

Retail Numbers Accounting Electronics 52

Trade Brains

MARCH 29, 2024

Industry Overview The other part of Bharti Hexacom IPO Review is an industry overview in which Rapid digital transformation has been fundamentally reshaping the Indian economy. Fewer market players lead to economies of scale and a reduction in the overlapping infrastructure. GB/customer/month in 2013 to 21.0

Government 59

Government Communication Valuation Economy 59

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 4, 2016

In 2013, she applied it to the small number of privately held companies with a market value over $1 billion to denote their rarity. Uber, arguably the best known, first became a unicorn in mid-2013, about the time Ms. Lee coined the term. It’s now worth an estimated $51 billion just two years later. Rapid Growth.

Investments 52

Investments Investing Numbers Valuation 52