This site uses cookies to improve your experience. To help us insure we adhere to various privacy regulations, please select your country/region of residence. If you do not select a country, we will assume you are from the United States. Select your Cookie Settings or view our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.
Cookie Settings
Cookies and similar technologies are used on this website for proper function of the website, for tracking performance analytics and for marketing purposes. We and some of our third-party providers may use cookie data for various purposes. Please review the cookie settings below and choose your preference.
Used for the proper function of the website
Used for monitoring website traffic and interactions
Cookie Settings
Cookies and similar technologies are used on this website for proper function of the website, for tracking performance analytics and for marketing purposes. We and some of our third-party providers may use cookie data for various purposes. Please review the cookie settings below and choose your preference.
Strictly Necessary: Used for the proper function of the website
Performance/Analytics: Used for monitoring website traffic and interactions
HiMaVs leverage the brain's natural preference for narrative and visual information by showing how a retirement income plan – such as a risk-based or guardrails-based strategy – would have fared during actual historical periods like the Great Depression, Stagflation of the 1970s, or the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
Barron's had a fun article that looked at some ideas from William Bernstein titled The Trick To A Bullet Proof Portfolio? Based on the title, it would seem to be in the neighborhood of creating an all-weather portfolio which we've looked at in several different forms over the course of my full 19 years of blogging.
If at the start of the year, someone put 100% into the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) as a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio, then to employ a portable alpha strategy, they could use leverage to add something to hopefully make it additive to returns. In 2008, VBAIX was down 23%. Most of the improved return can be attributed to 2022.
Her job is portfolio and product solutions and that means she could go anywhere in the world and do anything. One, one is true and I’ve always said is that I wanted people to stop, ask if I could doing math. And no one asked me if I can do math anymore with a degree from Booth, particularly in econometrics and statistics.
And I said, Paul, I don’t know anything about managing a public portfolio, but the deal we made with each other. I had my first child in June of 2008. Now, the first half of 2008, I was doing pretty well in the fund. But of course, I didn’t know the world was gonna meltdown in 2008. Oh, really?
Top seeds have only lost to 16 seeds twice in the seeded era – since 1979 – and both occurrences are recent (that said, 2008 was the only year all four top seeds made the Final Four). Motoyuki Mabuchi went all-in with four aces in the main event hand of the 2008 World Series of Poker but lost to Justin Phillips’ royal flush.
Here are some other numbers compared to the S&P 500 and VBAIX which is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio. The way the math works, a 67% allocation to NTSX replicates 100% into a 60/40 portfolio which leaves 33% left over to do something. In 2022, VBAIX was down 16.87% while Portfolio 2 was only down 10.77%.
If you’re at all interested in focused portfolios, the concept of quality as a sub-sector under value and just how you build a portfolio and a track record, that’s tough to beat. Dick Mayo was a traditional, I’d say portfolio, strong portfolio manager focused on US stocks. So I was at Harvard.
The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Antti Ilmanen, Co-Head, Portfolio Solutions, AQR , is below. BARRY RITHOLTZ; HOST; MASTERS IN BUSINESS: This week on the podcast, I have an extra special guest, Antti Ilmanen is AQR’s Co-head of the Portfolio Solutions Group. CO-HEAD, AQR’S PORTFOLIO SOLUTIONS GROUP: Thanks, Barry.
And I did the math, and I think at that point in time, roughly speaking, assets in ETS were roughly just 10 percent, 12 percent of assets in mutual funds and I was pretty convinced that that number was to increase significantly. Think about the two founders of Global X, Bruno and Jose, they set up Global X in 2008. BERRUGA: Exactly.
That’s a really easy portfolio to create. It allows you to understand, generally speaking, what is a reasonable beta for that whole portfolio. By the time I got there in ’92, they had a great venture portfolio and almost nobody else even understood what venture capital was. It started on January 1 of 2008.
So like a component of it was like the standard derivatives math, right? And so like, you know, I got there and I learned derivatives math, right? And it stopped in like September of 2008. It was derivatives math, it was like working with the traders on like risk management. And so for six months there were no deal.
It’s fun math – a 20% drop in prices means you get 25% more shares for your dollar, and a 50% drop means twice as many , or 100% more shares per dollar invested.). If you retire just BEFORE a big stock market crash, your first few months or years will drain your portfolio a bit more than you expected, until stock prices recover.
It didn’t happen overnight for me, but then few blogging resources were available when I started out in 2008. Earning potential: Depending on how quickly you’re able to find new clients and develop a working portfolio, your potential earnings could easily top the $1,000 mark designated on this post. Ads by Money. 3M (MMM), 4.0%
In the last 10 years (2008 through 2017), Berkshire’s shareholders’ equity per share and share price grew at 10.5% Though insurance produced an unusual underwriting loss in 2017, it provided $114 billion in investable float, which partially funds Berkshire’s $314 billion investment portfolio. equity market.
In the last 10 years (2008 through 2017), Berkshire’s shareholders’ equity per share and share price grew at 10.5% Though insurance produced an unusual underwriting loss in 2017, it provided $114 billion in investable float, which partially funds Berkshire’s $314 billion investment portfolio. equity market.
So I took it upon myself to go off and took a course in bond math, took another course in derivatives and realized the underlying fundamental concepts were barely, I mean, it wasn’t even high school math in most cases. And then I moved back to London at the end of 2008, which was a really interesting pivot.
You would offer three of their stock picks where they were probably touting stocks they wanted to unload from their portfolio. But the numbers you can’t argue with, I mean, we all know that the brutal math of investing before costs investors collectively will earn the market return after costs. That’s exactly right.
I led the Union Square Ventures investment in Etsy, I became a venture partner for that, and then became a GP in the 2008 fund. We have a separate vehicle called the Opportunity Fund, where we sometimes write bigger checks into late-stage rounds in some of our portfolio companies, but not always. I did these angel investments.
She was a partner and a portfolio manager at Canyon Capital, a firm that runs currently about $25 billion. MIELLE: After 2008? RITHOLTZ: 2008, ’09. But it’s interesting that you really can pinpoint the difference in return because there’s this sort of impatient or overzealousness in trading your portfolio.
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. Initially I joined to help them manage their equity portfolio. It was the exact same trade. I buy everything.
A little more specifically the need for diversified portfolios persists with the implication that bonds are the way to get this done. This chart contributes to the logic supporting a 60/40 portfolio. As a matter of math, it cannot repeat the run from 8.5% down to 0.50% let alone from the all time high of 15% down to 0.50%.
Anything related to the Permanent Portfolio (portfolio devised by Harry Browne weighting 25% each to stocks, long bonds, cash and gold) or any of the Permanent Portfolio-inspired modern investment products are always fun to look at. The S&P+PRPFX out performs by a noticeable bit but it also is more volatile.
BRYANT: So money, unlike math, money is highly emotional. I mean, there’s 50,000 kids in the Atlanta public school system, so you can do the math there. I believe I love math because it doesn’t have an opinion, that’s a Melody Hobson quote. This was, so you had the 2008, 2009 economic crisis.
I look for people that have done extracurricular work, or you know, manage their own little portfolio, or have stock ideas or businesses ideas that they want to pitch. RITHOLTZ: Why is it not surprising that a math nerd is also a placekicker? But really, even that experience was about building great friends that I played football with.
RIEDER: — there was — and then, you know, punctuating with obviously 2008. But you know exactly how they’re going to interplay within a portfolio, hugely powerful. You know, it’s not the equity market, and I run some big equity portfolios, you know, different. RITHOLTZ: So no one bets a thousand.
My family and I moved to McLean, Virginia in, in 2008. So that’s an active part of portfolio trimming and opt and optimization. The good news is no one event has a big impact on the portfolio. And I was always good at math and, and I had been writing code since I was in the sixth grade.
In 2008, Forester was up 3.57%. Who is to say whether that conclusion will stand up going forward but this excerpt hits on a key point I started making ages ago regarding avoiding the full brunt of large declines and the math supporting the 75/50 portfolio (capturing 75% of the upside with only 50% of the downside). Testfol.io
This is an important thing to understand when constructing portfolios that go narrower than broad based index funds. The math checks out and while the timing for these funds to launch was simply unlucky, I can't figure how these make managing a portfolio easier. In 2022 it was only down 5.49%.
Yet the fundamental math of bond returns bodes well for 2023, our columnist says. ( Survival Lessons From Past Tech Downturns : The current tech downturn could be much worse than it appears now, say those who lived through the 2001 and 2008 crashes—but those who make it have the chance to fuel the next bubble. New York Times ). •
The math is just Earnings * (Price / Earnings) = Price, since the Earnings parts cancel. So, we should be able to avoid a financial crisis, a la a 2008-style meltdown in markets and the economy. It just means portfolios may have to be more robustly diversified than they were in the past.
Not only did he stand up a research shop from a dorm room in college and started selling model portfolios to fund managers, but eventually created a suite of first mutual funds. And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. It’s just not smart on a math basis to do that.
So, I did the math, 20 million times a hundred. So, let me just repeat the math. And so, again, I went through this simple math. The currency devalued by 75 percent and my portfolio, which was above $1 billion, went down 90 percent. And this had an unbelievably positive affect on the value of my portfolio.
And I did a lot of options math, which I thought was interesting. But it, it, summer of 2008, as you can imagine, was a really interesting time, particularly for the convertible bond desk because we were the busiest desk. We do have a limit on what percent of the portfolio could be in what’s classified as frontier.
And then, you know, at some point, well, I went to grad school because I graduated college in 2008, and was shockingly enough, yeah, having trouble getting a newsroom job. I mean, you’re talking about, I don’t, I could do the math, it’s like a 10,000% return in like three weeks. And that’s sort of the math.
I’d been ranked i i back in the seventies, if you can do the math. He helps portfolio managers make sense of the world. The last cycle, for example, it took 18 months from when the yield corps inverted to when the recession started in 2008, 18 months. So at that point, I had a pretty big career. Not, not useful.
Now, they do have to disclose in their statutory filings with the insurance regulators how much of their investment portfolio in the insurance company is related transactions or related stocks or bonds or mortgages or whatever. MORGENSON: And so, he buys this portfolio of junk bonds. Or does that happen? MORGENSON: That does happen.
Colin Camerer : So I, some of it was when I was in college at Johns Hopkins, I, I studied physics and math. And there was people, Physics didn’t have, people, psychology didn’t have math, economics was kind of the right mix. The math doesn’t math. That was too abstract. Yeah, I’m gonna vote.
That’s why the markets are much more of a mind game than a math game. And that’s why markets will always be exceedingly hard, even when the math seems easy or the future seems certain. He called the 2008-09 financial crisis but has kept calling for replays and kept being wrong. Stop with the math.`
But we know, and this is what at least I wasn’t sufficiently alert to in 2008, that self-interested or malevolent types can use behavioral biases to manipulate people. So the granddaddy of this in my field is when you are setting up a portfolio for an investor, “Hey, tell us about your risk tolerance. Are you aggressive?
We organize all of the trending information in your field so you don't have to. Join 36,000+ users and stay up to date on the latest articles your peers are reading.
You know about us, now we want to get to know you!
Let's personalize your content
Let's get even more personalized
We recognize your account from another site in our network, please click 'Send Email' below to continue with verifying your account and setting a password.
Let's personalize your content