The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 22, 2024

Going back to 1954, markets are always higher one year later – the only exception was 2007. Ask yourself this: Is 2024 more akin to 2007, or most other markets where new all-time highs were made? Check out the table above, via Warren Pies. He spoke with Batnick and Josh earlier this month.

Economics 349

Economics Marketing Marketing Investing 349

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MAY 2, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.7 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in April to 4.69 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in April to 4.69 YoY in April.

Numbers 162

Numbers Economics 162

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MARCH 7, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.94 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.94

Numbers 147

Numbers Economics 147

Abnormal Returns

MAY 22, 2025

ft.com) 30-year Treasury yields hit levels not seen since 2007. abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media 16 books from JPMorgans annual summer reading list including: Economic Spotlight: Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insiders View of the Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead by Kenneth Rogoff.

Investments 147

Investments Investing Media Government 147

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JULY 29, 2022

Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and was up about 10% year-over-year in Q2 - from a very low level. Investment in offices (blue) increased slightly in Q2 and was up 5.7% year-over-year. Still declining as a percent of GDP). The second graph is for Residential investment components as a percent of GDP.

Commission 363

Commission Manufacturing Investing Investments 363

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JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2023. million to 1.5

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

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AUGUST 2, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

The S&P 500 topped out in early October 2007 and bottomed in March 2009. On a price-only basis, the index didn’t reach those 2007 highs again until March 2013: ( Wealth of Common Sense ). • Economic Innovation Group ). • Let’s look at the 2008 scenario as an example. Is Private Credit a Bubble, or Just a Little Frothy?

Communication 298

Communication Startup Management Economics 298

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OCTOBER 4, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.62 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.62

Numbers 306

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 306

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MAY 3, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in April to 4.47 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in April to 4.47 YoY in April.

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

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JUNE 7, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.42 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.42 YoY in May. million from 4.47

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

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APRIL 5, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31 YoY in March.

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

The Big Picture

JANUARY 23, 2023

Unemployment is low, job openings are still high, and what looks salaries are still rising. ~~~ I have a very vivid recollection of massive firings during the 2007-09 financial crisis. Last, the Labor market remains very robust. As the chart above shows, Unemployment spiked to 10%, layoffs were ubiquitous. At least, not yet.

Numbers 325

Numbers Economics Planning Investing 325

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JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust), and in March 2020 (pandemic).

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investing 278

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JANUARY 29, 2024

Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and was up about 8% year-over-year in Q4. Investment in offices (blue) increased slightly in Q4 and was up 5.0% year-over-year. And mostly unchanged as a percent of GDP. The vacancy rate for malls is still very high, so investment will probably stay low for some time.

Commission 289

Commission Manufacturing Investing Investments 289

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. My economic future was uncertain, but I felt confident I could make a go of it. From a purely economic perspective, these first few crashes were meaningless. I had zero dollars in the market and was deep in student loan debt.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

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OCTOBER 6, 2023

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.07 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.07 in September.

Numbers 312

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 312

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When the Economic Policy Institute analyzed this, they discovered: “Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC [non-financial corps] sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019.

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

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JUNE 6, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.62 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.62 YoY in May. million from 4.69

Numbers 130

Numbers Economics 130

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SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in August to 4.83 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in August to 4.83

Numbers 277

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 277

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APRIL 29, 2024

Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and was down about 1% year-over-year in Q1. Investment in offices (blue) increased slightly in Q1 and was up 4.1% year-over-year. And declined slightly as a percent of GDP. And the office vacancy rate is at a record high, and this will hold down office investment.

Commission 278

Commission Manufacturing Investing Investments 278

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JULY 9, 2024

Fast-forward to 2024, and this cycle he hasn’t been as concerned as he was in 2007. To better understand Bill McBride's perspective on the current housing and economic cycle, ResiClub reached out and conducted a Q&A with him.

Marketing 173

Marketing Marketing Economics Sales 173

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NOVEMBER 3, 2023

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in October to 4.28 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in October to 4.28 million from 4.07

Retail 333

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 333

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DECEMBER 8, 2023

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 295,000 to 4.0 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in November to 3.99 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in November to 3.99

Retail 317

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 317

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MAY 21, 2023

Note that the big dips in sales are related to economic recessions (early '80s, early '90s, the Great Recession of 2007 through mid-2009 and the pandemic in 2020). Back in 1976, most light vehicles were passenger cars - however passenger car sales have trended down over time.

Sales 204

Sales Economics 204

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SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

Note that the big dips in sales are related to economic recessions (early '80s, early '90s, the Great Recession of 2007 through mid-2009 and the pandemic in 2020). Back in 1976, most light vehicles were passenger cars - however passenger car sales have trended down over time.

Sales 200

Sales Economics 200

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JANUARY 5, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.21 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.21 YoY in December.

Retail 302

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 302

The Big Picture

MARCH 1, 2025

Long Now Foundation ) The hardest-working font in Manhattan : In 2007, on my first trip to New York City, I grabbed a brand-new DSLR camera and photographed all the fonts I was supposed to love. Tablet ) see also Welcome to the New Military-Industrial Complex. I admired American Typewriter, Akzidenz Grotesk, Helvetica, Gotham.

Math 162

Math Startup Engineering Economy 162

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OCTOBER 31, 2022

Investment in multimerchandise shopping structures (malls) peaked in 2007 and was up about 16% year-over-year in Q3 - from a very low level. Investment in offices (blue) increased slightly in Q3 and was down 1.3% year-over-year. And still declining as a percent of GDP.

Commission 228

Commission Manufacturing Investing Investments 228

A Wealth of Common Sense

OCTOBER 15, 2024

It was the worst economic period most of us have ever lived through. The collective net worth of American households reached roughly $66 trillion by the end of 2007. Housing prices were down by nearly 30%. The stock market crashed almost 60%. The unemployment rate hit double-digits. The 2008 crash wiped out $11 trillion in wealth,

Economics 142

Economics Marketing Marketing 142

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JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% The "Art of the Soft Landing" requires that the Fed reduce rates quick enough to keep economic growth positive, and slow enough not to reignite inflation. this gives 2.4%

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investing 200

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JULY 5, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in June to 4.22 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in June to 4.22 YoY in June.

Numbers 211

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 211

The Big Picture

JUNE 20, 2024

She observes it is less about the things investors tend to focus on — “technical analysis, geopolitics, behavioral finance and even skirt hemline trends” — and more about specific measures she tracks in sentiment, valuation, macro-economic areas. The table above shows the major market peaks going back to 1990.

Marketing 195

Marketing Marketing Valuation Media 195

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MAY 29, 2023

See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II. The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust / financial crisis), and in March 2020 (pandemic). The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust / financial crisis), and in March 2020 (pandemic). Since the unemployment rate was at 3.4%

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

This is supported generally by economic strength in the labor market, strong consumer spending, and record high corporate profits. upturn near the tail end of the 2007-09 cycle. The counterargument is the spike in inflation has changed the dynamic of the economy.

Economy 328

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 328

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? The rally from those lows were close to a market double by the time we saw the next peak in October 2007. It takes the Earth 365 days, 6 hours, 9 minutes, and 9.76

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

The Big Picture

MAY 16, 2023

Major coastal metros have been hubs of the kind of educated workers coveted most by high-powered employers and economic development officials. He founded Wall Strip (sold to CBS in 2007), co-founded StockTwits (which pioneered the ‘cashtag’ e.g., $AAPL), and was the first investor in Robin Hood. Now College Graduates Are Leaving, Too.

Economy 263

Economy Economics Education Government 263