The Big Picture
APRIL 25, 2024
A quick note on the state of the economy in light of some recent data. Q1 2024 Gross Domestic Product expanded at a disappointing 1.6% — note this is seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate. That lagged economists’ consensus of 2.4%. However, it’s not quite all it appears. Some of this is that “long and variable lag” of higher rates starting to bite — but it’s not just that.
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 25, 2024
Markets The energy sector is still less than 4% of the S&P 500. (allstarcharts.com) What are to make of the big, and persistent, valuation disparities between large and small caps. (morningstar.com) Strategy Good luck trying to dial risk up and down at the right times. (collabfund.com) Expect to see some overconfidence tonight in Detroit. (seeitmarket.com) There's no return without risk.
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Abnormal Returns
APRIL 21, 2024
Rates Allan Sloan, "Don’t fall in love with your money fund." (barrons.com) You likely don't need a long-term bond fund. (wsj.com) Strategy The market's most important lessons have to be experienced. (microcapclub.com) No portfolio strategy is perfect. (rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Financial trends reverse just when they seem inevitable. (humbledollar.com) Companies Why Boeing ($BA) took its eye off manufacturing quality.
Nerd's Eye View
APRIL 22, 2024
Broadly speaking, there are 2 models of working as a financial advisor: operating independently as a firm owner or with a large affiliate platform such as a wirehouse broker-dealer, independent broker-dealer, or larger corporate RIA. Deciding which model to work under is a key moment in beginning or evolving a career as an advisor. In the independent model, owners/advisors are generally paid directly by the clients they serve, and they select and pay for the vendors, services, and employees that
Speaker: Nancy Wu, Head of Sales and Customer Success at SkyStem
Join us for an enlightening webinar as we delve into the transformative realm of modern accounting practices. In today's digital age, the convergence of outsourcing and automation has revolutionized how businesses manage their financial operations. In this webinar we will explore the synergistic potential of these two strategies to streamline processes, enhance accuracy, save cost and drive strategic decision-making.
A Wealth of Common Sense
APRIL 23, 2024
There was a recent poll about my home state of Michigan where they asked people for their thoughts on the state of the nation’s economy today. Just 35% of people described the economy as excellent (6%) or good (29%) while 65% described it as either not so good (28%) or poor (37%). But when asked how they would describe their own personal financial situation these days, a majority of people (61%) described their circ.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 21, 2024
Top clicks this week TIPS are on sale. Time to buy. (morningstar.com) Why everyone in finance seems to be doing deadlifts. (wealthmanagement.com) Franklin Templeton ($BEN) is moving aggressively beyond stocks and bonds. (wsj.com) 15 more ideas from Seth Klarman's "Margin of Safety" including 'Investment must be thought of as more than stock selection or making a series of solid individual investment decisions.
The Big Picture
APRIL 21, 2024
Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • ‘Water is more valuable than oil’: the corporation cashing in on America’s drought : In an unprecedented deal, a private company purchased land in a tiny Arizona town – and sold its water rights to a suburb 200 miles away. Local residents fear the agreement has ‘opened Pandora’s box.’ ( The Guardian ) • Why don’t rich people eat anymore?
Nerd's Eye View
APRIL 19, 2024
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that CFP Board announced that it has crossed the milestone of 100,000 CFP professionals in the United States, and despite having just celebrated its 50th anniversary last year, just set a record high in the number of advisors sitting for the CFP exam this March, reflecting the value many financial advisors and consumers place on the brand, including the requirements to obtain i
Wealth Management
APRIL 24, 2024
Advocates say RIAs have little to worry about, yet one opponent accused the DOL of waging an “ideological crusade” and said he’d recommend litigation to his board.
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 24, 2024
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2024 (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.1% annualized in Q1, down from 3.4% in Q4. • Also at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 210 thousand initial claims, down from 212 thousand last week. • At 10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for March.
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 19, 2024
Markets TIPS are on sale. Time to buy. (morningstar.com) Two reasons why yields are higher this year. (carsongroup.com) The stock-bond correlation has flipped positive. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Books Why you should read Rob Copeland's "The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates, and the Unraveling of a Wall Street Legend." (advisorperspectives.com) A review of "Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing" by Larry Swedroe.
A Wealth of Common Sense
APRIL 21, 2024
In the early-1980s, Robert Shiller set out to answer the question: Do stock prices move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in dividends? The idea was to figure out how well the stock market tracks the present value of future cash flows in the short-term. Shiller concluded that, no, stock prices do not neatly track fundamentals. He updated that data in his book Irrational Exuberance: The cash flows move very l.
Nerd's Eye View
APRIL 24, 2024
Over the past few decades, advicers have used Monte Carlo analysis tools to communicate to clients if their assets and planned level of spending were sufficient for them to realize their goals while (critically) not running out of money in retirement. More recently, however, the Monte Carlo "probability of success/failure" framing has attracted some criticism, as it can potentially alter the way that a client perceives risk, leading them to make less-than-ideal decisions.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Wealth Management
APRIL 24, 2024
Prosperitage Wealth's Brian Seymour explains the crucial role coaching played in shaping his career, helping him identify his unique strengths and develop his “super power.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 22, 2024
This is something I check occasionally. The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported : • Travel on all roads and streets changed by +2.0% (+4.8 billion vehicle miles) for February 2024 as compared with February 2023. Travel for the month is estimated to be 240.2 billion vehicle miles. • The seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for February 2024 is 274.8 billion miles, a +1.4% ( +3.9 billion vehicle miles) change over February 2023.
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 22, 2024
Markets Commodities are having a standout 2024. (capitalspectator.com) When did investing become so political? (economist.com) ETFs Grayscale's Bitcoin Mini Trust will have a 0.15% expense ratio. (coindesk.com) More mutual fund to ETF conversions are coming. (advisorhub.com) Finance The NYSE is testing 24-hour trading. (on.ft.com) Want a stake in a hot AI startup?
Advisor Perspectives
APRIL 23, 2024
Fifth district manufacturing activity remained slow in April, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose to -7 this month from -11 in March, marking its 6th consecutive negative reading. This month's reading was consistent with the forecast.
Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC
In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.
Carson Wealth
APRIL 19, 2024
Congratulations, recent college graduate! You’ve worked hard to earn your degree, and now you’re ready to embark on the next chapter of your life. This is an exciting time – one filled with lots of changes, like starting a new career and learning how to manage living on your own. As you transition into the “real” world, one of the most crucial skills you can develop is managing your finances effectively.
Wealth Management
APRIL 22, 2024
The RIA said it was acquiring the two San Francisco-based teams. This follows last week’s announcements that multi-billion-dollar former First Republic teams had joined Merrill Lynch and Citizens Bank.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 21, 2024
As of December 2023, looking at the "dot plot" , most FOMC participants expected between 2 and 4 rate cuts in 2024: As of Dec 2023 Meeting 25 bp Rate Cuts FOMC Members No Change 2 One Rate Cut 1 Two Rate Cuts 5 Three Rate Cuts 6 Four Rate Cuts 4 More than Four 1 As of the March 2024 meeting , FOMC participants were down to 2 to 3 rate cuts in 2024: As of Mar 2024 Meeting 25 bp Rate Cuts FOMC Members No Change 2 One Rate Cut 2 Two Rate Cuts 5 Three Rate Cuts 9 Four Rate Cuts 1 Most market partici
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 22, 2024
Podcasts Brian Portnoy talks human-centric advice with Kelsey McKenna and Zachary Conway of Seeds Investor. (youtube.com) Larry Sprung talks with Josh Brown about his path to wealth management. (mitlinmoneymindset.libsyn.com) Jordan Haynes talks with Justin Castelli about his transition into life planning, especially for financial advisers. (getelements.com) Frazer Rice talks with Christopher Holtby about the role of a directed trustee.
Speaker: Wayne Spivak, President and CFO of SBA * Consulting Ltd., Industry Writer, Public Speaker
If you’re lost in the world of spend management needs and your GAP analysis is lacking perspective on the future state of your business performance, listen up! With the advancement of technology, the implementation of spend management best practices and concrete GAP analyses is more streamlined and accessible than ever before. And while this may sound like great news for you and your clients, it won’t be worthwhile unless you have the latest techniques to back up your ambitions!
Advisor Perspectives
APRIL 19, 2024
In March, nominal home values increased for an 12th straight months while "real" home values were unchanged. Last month's ZHVI came in at $354,179, up 0.44% from the previous month and up 4.09% from one year ago. However, after adjusting for inflation, the real figures are 0.00% month-over-month and -1.71% year-over-year.
Sara Grillo
APRIL 19, 2024
One of the biggest fears that people have, when they are looking for a financial advisor, is this: “Is it truly impossible for an advisor to say wire themselves a few million dollars from a client’s account?” I’m going to answer that question in this blog about financial advisors stealing money and how to protect yourself. But before we get into it… Look, there are alot of schmucks out there hawking crap products disguised as financial advice.
Wealth Management
APRIL 22, 2024
The suite of prospecting, client retention and efficiency resources was developed in response to research that found more than half of advisors are having trouble landing new clients.
Calculated Risk
APRIL 24, 2024
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI March 2024: Architecture firm billings retreat further in March Business conditions at architecture firms softened in March, as the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 43.6 for the month. This marked the 14th consecutive month of declining billings at firms as inflation, supply chain issues, and other economic challenges continue to affect business.
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All accounting teams know what it is like to dread the inevitable month-end scaries. If there was a way to feel less burdened and maybe even a little enthusiastic to work on your month-end close and reconciliation process, would you do it? No, don't answer that, of course you would! Automate your month-end close process by up to 40% with SkyStem's ART and see how much more alive you feel!
Abnormal Returns
APRIL 24, 2024
Banking The number of bank branches in the U.S. peaked in 2012. (sherwood.news) Where SVB's business stands as JP Morgan ($JPM) looks to make inroads. (bloomberg.com) ETFs Where active ETFs are growing fastest. (morningstar.com) The iShares Bitcoin ETF ($IBIT) is a runaway hit. (theblock.co) Retail investors trade leveraged ETFs way too much. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) TikTok The clock is now ticking for a TikTok divestiture.
Advisor Perspectives
APRIL 19, 2024
Existing home sales experienced their largest monthly decline in over a year in March. According to the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales fell 4.3% from February to reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million units. This figure came in lower than the expected 4.20 million. Existing home sales are down 3.7% compared to one year ago.
The Irrelevant Investor
APRIL 21, 2024
Articles We are saving and investing for wealth when we should be thinking about income. (By Allison Schrager) Something strange happens when we shift our attention from individual workers to households (By Derek Thomspon) Why so many people don’t believe the inflation numbers. (By Ben Carlson) This is a country that is inhospitable to those who haven’t accumulated any wealth yet.
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