Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 18, 2025

Bill Hester from Hussman Funds had a lengthy write up on diversifiers that track what he called Bear Market Cumulative Returns (BMCR). A portfolio that goes narrower than an S&P 500 500 or total market fund probably has some exposure to low vol, dividends and the others. for example. Now for a little more fun.

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Marketing Marketing Math Portfolio 52

Mr. Money Mustache

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

As one reader recently asked me in an email: The market seems to be in a huge bubble right now due to all sorts of hype around Artificial Intelligence. To answer this question, lets take a closer look at our current somewhat unprecedented financial world and stock market. Now back to the stock market. Its just basic math.

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The Big Picture

JULY 1, 2025

I took a lot of math classes. I couldn’t give up math in computer science. And ultimately the decision was to focus more on developed markets. It’s, it’s really more about staying ahead of inflation than it is about generating market beating returns. But for me, this was not an option. at Wellesley.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 3, 2024

There was an article on LinkedIn (via Abnormal Returns) by Victor Haghani that dug into the math working against leveraged ETFs. They are not intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice or a recommended course of action in any given situation.

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Math Portfolio Retail Clients 52

The Big Picture

JUNE 23, 2025

There are a few people in the world of fixed income that understands the bond market, the ETF market, what the fed’s doing, what is driving both institutional and household investors on the fixed income side. It’s sort of like math with dollar signs attached to it. I thought this conversation was really fascinating.

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Discipline Funds

JULY 18, 2025

This is clearly seen in actual tariff tax receipts. For example, back in April when the tariff banter was at its peak the administration was saying they could replace the income tax with tariffs. We’re talking about a $3 TRILLION line item there so markets panicked because that would have been a colossal tax increase.

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 21, 2025

But the numbers you can’t argue with, I mean, we all know that the brutal math of investing before costs investors collectively will earn the market return after costs. They will earn that market return less, whatever they’re paying. 00:12:21 [Speaker Changed] You get the markets return. Surprise, surprise.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

In that event, I think doing better than the broad market probably just came down to luck in reiterates a point I should be making more often that fast declines, aka panics, aka crashes are not be feared anywhere near as much as slow declines which typically take much longer to recover.

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Math Portfolio Taxes Clients 52

WiserAdvisor

JUNE 27, 2025

And a tax-efficient withdrawal strategy that won’t sabotage your nest egg early. Outliving your savings Here’s the math: the earlier you retire, the longer your savings have to last. You could be looking at 35+ years of self-funded living expenses, during which inflation, market dips, and unexpected costs will all take their toll.

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Retirement Planning Retirement Planning Taxes 59

The Big Picture

APRIL 8, 2025

So while you might once upon a time have thought about, you know, the Morgan Stanley financial advisors as, as, you know, serving that ultra high net worth, you know, core client, you know, now we’re, you know, serving folks in the mass market through E-Trade. I mean, let me just give you an example. Those are such non-normative terms.

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The Big Picture

JULY 15, 2025

Obviously math, there’s a ton of symbolic logic wherever you look, that classic syllogism, right? So you start out essentially as an analyst, how do you, how do you work your way up to market strategists and then chief investment strategist for, for the thundering 00:10:11 [Speaker Changed] Herd? Absolutely.

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Numbers Investments Investing Economics 147

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 30, 2025

I say that because the math in most simulations and with several IRL clients, is they die with a lot of money leftover. A retirement plan that starts out with $600,000 right before a 30% decline in the broad market that then coincides with a $100,000 catastrophe might never recover. Are you likely to inherit any money?

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The Big Picture

MARCH 17, 2025

You sit in a room all day doing tax returns or something, it’s just not, you know, that it seemed antisocial. And so he kind of put himself out there on the job market and he thought, well, I could either go for a dean position or I could, you know, go for some kind of endowed chair somewhere, you know, move up.

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The Big Picture

JUNE 16, 2025

I wanna, I want to get into some of the details before we start talking about markets and investing. Yeah, you have to, you know, the conceit of finance is that basically the math is all there is to it. So you’re a proponent of modern portfolio theory and the efficient market hypothesis. I, I’ve had enough of that.

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Math Numbers Investments Investing 130

Carson Wealth

APRIL 28, 2025

Although future guidance remains murky at best, nearly 75% of the companies that have reported so far have beaten earnings expectations, giving last weeks strength some backup from market fundamentals. Markets have been extremely volatile recently, with the S&P 500 experience nine 1%+ intraday moves over the first three days of this week.

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Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 78

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 22, 2024

The way Portfolios 1 and 2 are weighted, the math works for being a 60/40 portfolio and then from there we add portable alpha/capital efficiency/return stacking. Ok, well that's not the sort of thing you read when markets are fearful. The idea here is to look to see if any value can be added. I'm a research volunteer.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 10, 2025

Simple math, it looks like the carry index has compounded at less than 3%. If you've ever heard the cliche that in a crisis, all correlations go to 1, in the face of some sort of market spasm it is possible that stocks and managed futures get hit in the same manner at the same time. The red line for T-bills is price only.

Math 52

Math Management Portfolio Taxes 52

FMG

JUNE 13, 2025

Advisors offer insights on retirement, long-term care, or market trends over lunch at a local café or conference room. Tax Strategy Workshops Workshops like “Creating Tax Efficient Retirement Strategies” attract attendees who are serious about their financial future.

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Education Food Clients Retirement 52

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2024

Markets Vocal market bears are dropping like flies. finance.yahoo.com) Blackrock ($BLK) is uniquely positioned to meld private markets and ETFs. on.ft.com) What it took to rebuild Notre Dame (nytimes.com) Budgeting The math on any additional tax cuts is tough. etftrends.com) AI AI is already getting commodified.

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Marketing Marketing Budgeting Math 147

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 7, 2025

msn.com) Everybody loves geothermal, but will tax credits survive the budget process? nytimes.com) A twice-year shot to prevent HIV is likely coming to market. theatlantic.com) The tough math of being a professional tennis player. (fastcompany.com) Energy In the South, solar power pays better than timber.

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Medicine Recruitment Math Food 179

The Big Picture

APRIL 1, 2025

This was an indication, this was market testing. How did you figure out to short the market in 2007? And it wasn’t that, oh, the free market figured this out, but for the regulations we would still be having all these coal mine collapses. Because at that point, hey, markets only go up. So they were just used to it.

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Government Media Engineering Investments 258

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

This weekend Jeff Sommer discussed a DFA research paper on market timing; both are well worth your time to read. The broad strokes are: Market timing is extremely difficult, very few people (if any) do it consistently well. Low Stakes : The most successful market timers are often those people who do not have actual assets at risk.

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Marketing Marketing Math Retirement Planning 304

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 20, 2023

“I need the US Dollar to be a store of value between the time I make it until I spend it, invest it, pay my taxes with it, or give it away. To be more precise, I want to discuss the type of chart that reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of money, currency, spending, investing, and taxes. and paying taxes.

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Investments Investing Math Medicine 340

The Big Picture

MAY 9, 2024

Not if you spend tax season on a boat! TikTokInvestors: “Apart from his misleading arrogance and the inaccurate market statistics mentioned, a 401K is possibly the best investment vehicle for the average American. TikTokInvestors: “Turning $100 into $1mln by earning 2% daily in the market is nearly mathematically impossible.

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Media Taxes Math Financial Advice 337

Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 18, 2023

peterlazaroff.com) Bogumil Baranowski talks with Brian Feroldi, author of "Why the Stock Market Goes Up." vox.com) Housing The worst case for the housing market - worsening affordability. awealthofcommonsense.com) The math on downsizing your house isn't working as well these days.

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Insurance Math Retirement Taxes 264

Nerd's Eye View

JUNE 21, 2024

Also in industry news this week: A recent survey indicates that financial advisors continue to move towards ETFs and away from mutual funds when it comes to client portfolio recommendations, though a majority of advisors continue to see a role for active management in the investment management process A former employee has filed a lawsuit alleging (..)

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Financial Planner Financial Advisor Math Taxes 246

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

JANUARY 8, 2024

Weekly Market Insights : New Years Blues Stocks retreated in the first trading week of 2024, struggling a bit after a celebratory end to last year as investors second-guessed Fed signals and fretted over lingering inflation concerns. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change.

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Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 98

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 10, 2023

Businessweek ) • The Super Bowl’s Most Reliable Stock Market Indicator? Businessweek ) • The Super Bowl’s Most Reliable Stock Market Indicator? Business Insider ) • Stop treating unemployment as a necessary evil to curb inflation : An economist explains why it’s time to rethink popular assumptions about layoffs. (

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Math Engineering Manufacturing Investments 173

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 29, 2024

The simple 40 year trade for bonds of "number go up" is finished and as a matter of math, can't be repeated. Part of where I am coming from on this is how terribly wrong the consensus has been on how to engage fixed income markets for such a long time. Taking volatility out of a fixed income portfolio is fairly simple.

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Marketing Marketing Math Portfolio 95

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 22, 2024

Jason Zweig wrote an article titled How Not to Invest in the Bond Market. The article devoted a good amount of space to bond market math, focusing on the pain of owning the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) and bond funds in general. The title of course piqued my interest.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

It's been a while since this sort of thing was relevant for my day job so something could have changed, weeklies didn't exist for example, but if my math is correct then it was way over exposed which would account for last week's decline in the fund price. Please leave a comment if I did the work incorrectly.

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Math Education Accounting Taxes 105

Diamond Consultants

OCTOBER 10, 2023

When it comes to the services they provide to clients, advisors layer in activities such as tax preparation, estate planning, and concierge services to not only satisfy growing client requirements but also to justify a fee increase or generate new sources of revenue.

Math 52

Math Recruitment Clients Estate Planning 52

Carson Wealth

FEBRUARY 22, 2023

A million dollars breaks down into an annual amount of about $30,000 over 30 years (not counting taxes, etc.). Understand Your Plan The best kind of money isn’t old, new or even tax-advantaged – it’s  free  money! Two of the most popular are Traditional and Roth 401(k), which are primarily different because of tax treatment.

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Retirement Taxes Planning Math 98

Darrow Wealth Management

OCTOBER 1, 2022

Particularly in down markets, having relatively low fixed costs is important as you may be able to avoid forced selling to pay bills. However, if the goal is to pay off a mortgage before retirement to spend would-be mortgage payments on other things during retirement, the math may not work out.

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Retirement Taxes Math CFP 105

Discipline Funds

MARCH 28, 2025

CR: Tariffs are taxes. Anon: But tariffs can replace the income tax. from the income tax and the US imports $3T of goods. We’d have to tax ~85% of imports to cover that, but that would also reduce imports so it’s unrealistic and the basic math doesn’t come close to working. CR: The govt makes $2.5T

Taxes 102

Taxes Government Manufacturing Portfolio 102

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 3, 2024

Part of the equation is that he is convinced that tax rates have to go up to pay for out debt and so converting to a Roth now before tax rates do go up will result in people ending up with more after tax dollars versus just going the RMD route at what is now 73 on its way to 75. This has been his thing for a long time.

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Numbers Taxes Retirement Accounting 98

Darrow Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 7, 2023

Pros and cons of exercising stock options in a pre-IPO window If you are new to the tax implications and basics about exercising stock options, please read this article first. Unfortunately, for those tax savings to materialize, the post-IPO stock price at sale must be considerably more than the pre-IPO valuation at exercise.

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Wealth Management Taxes Tax Planning Valuation 85