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Surprise! California’s 40 Qs of Rising Minimum Wage & Fast Food Industry Growth (Beating USA)

The Big Picture

Many fast food workers (specifically) got bumped to $20/hour, from $16, in April (the law is very specific about who is eligible for the increase). Over that decade, with its minimum wage rising, California’s fast food industry has bested the rest of the US by leaps and bounds. Our story began with a Wall St.

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Schedule for Week of July 13, 2025

Calculated Risk

This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. 8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of -0.5, up from -4.0.

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Rabbithole: What Do People Get Wrong About Money?

The Big Picture

” A : Money is NOT a store of value to be useful, a dollar must maintain its value long enough for me to pay my rent or mortgage, buy food and energy, fund my entertainment and travel, pay my taxes, and get invested. Can you elaborate on how people misunderstand the very purpose of currency? It does that splendidly.

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Schedule for Week of March 16, 2025

Calculated Risk

This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for March. The consensus is for a reading of -2.0, down from 5.7.

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At the Money: Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President on Tariffs, Inflation and Monetary Policy

The Big Picture

The supply side was healing on the supply chain, and there was a big surge of labor force participation from a number of groups. So you got a number of positive supply shocks that are exactly what allowed for the immaculate disinflation, which the people who thought that was impossible use that phrase mockingly. I think number one.

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CPI Preview

Calculated Risk

consensus), reflecting higher food prices (+0.4%) and but sharply lower energy prices (-1.2%). We expect to see more signs of tariffs driving prices higher, but favorable seasonal factors for autos and declines in certain services categories will keep a lid on the top line inflation numbers. consensus). Click on graph for larger image.

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Schedule for Week of June 15, 2025

Calculated Risk

This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. -- Wednesday, June 18th -- 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.