Sat.Aug 26, 2023 - Fri.Sep 01, 2023

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Time to get “Real” about the coming recession

David Nelson

By David Nelson, CFA Traveler’s usually follow in the footsteps of those who have successfully navigated the journey before them. Even Dorothy along with a few friends and her trusty dog Toto had the Yellow Brick Road. Investors are no different. We stick to the path as long as we can but have to be prepared to alter course when the weather turns.

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The Word on WealthTech for September 2023

Wealth Management

F2 Strategy's co-founder and CEO provides his take on the most important wealth management technology news of the last month.

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Construction Spending Increased 0.7% in July

Calculated Risk

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during July 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,972.6 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised June estimate of $1,958.9 billion. The July figure is 5.5 percent above the July 2022 estimate of $1,869.3 billion. emphasis added Private spending increased and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,548.9 billio

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Unemployment Up 0.3% = Fed on Hold

The Big Picture

The Fed is done. It’s unimaginable that they will do anything at the September FOMC meeting, and barring any radical change in the data, it’s unlikely they will be doing anything in November. I have been saying since June 2022 that inflation had peaked; the data has been leaning that way since May 2022. If you were watching the video instead of the still pic , it was apparent that the biggest risk to the economy then was less rising prices than a tardy FOMC over-tightening.

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8 Ways to Torture Your CFO

The office of the CFO is rapidly evolving, with more and more demands being placed upon the finance and accounting team each year. Join us in this webinar, where we share 8 things to NOT do when it comes to helping the CFO office advance in supporting the business. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how best to support an organization's finance leadership.

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Thursday links: impulsive and irreverent

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Some neglected aspects of investing including 'The influence of luck in outcomes.' (investmenttalk.co) The story of a top investor's mistake holding a stock too long. (morningstar.com) Banks How is the integration of First Republic going for JP Morgan Chase ($JPM)? (theinformation.com) More capital would not have saved SVB. (ft.com) Finance A handful of big IPOs are queued up after Labor Day including Instacart, Arm Holdings and Klayvio.

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Family Offices Look Ready to Step Up Real Estate Investment. What Are They Looking for in Their Partners?

Wealth Management

Transparency in financial reporting, favorable partnership structures are taking on more importance for family offices in a riskier investment climate.

More Trending

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Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index: +0.2%

The Big Picture

The Fed’s favored inflation report was a 2.1% annualized (3 months through July) and 3.3% year-over-year. Here is BEA: Personal income increased $45.0 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 3 and table 5). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $7.3 billion (less than 0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $144.6 billio

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Friday links: a key consideration

Abnormal Returns

August 2023 How major asset classes performed in August 2023. (capitalspectator.com) A summary of S&P Dow Jones index returns in August 2023. (on.spdji.com) Rates The bond market is completely different that it was a year ago. (awealthofcommonsense.com) U.S Treasury bonds are no track for their third straight year of losses. (markets.businessinsider.com) Companies How retailers have responded to the post-pandemic era.

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Advisors Express Cautious Optimism Ahead Of Schwab, TD Ameritrade Labor Day Account Conversion

Wealth Management

Many who custody with one or both have seen no major hiccups so far, while some smaller, TD-only firms expressed confusion and frustration.

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 25, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

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How to Streamline Payment Applications & Lien Waivers Through Innovative Construction Technology

Speaker: Dylan Secrest, Founder of Alamo Innovation and Construction Digital Transformation Consultant

Construction payment workflows are notoriously complex when you consider juggling multiple stakeholders, compliance requirements, and evolving project scopes. Delays in approvals or misaligned data between budgets, lien waivers, and pay applications can grind progress to a halt. The good news? It doesn't have to be this way! Join expert Dylan Secrest to discover how leading contractors are turning payment chaos into clarity using digital workflows, integrated systems, and automation strategies.

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10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end of August, morning train WFH reads: • Money Is Pouring Into AI. Skeptics Say It’s a ‘Grift Shift.’ The move from crypto to artificial intelligence has fueled the markets this year, but some are questioning how much of it is real. ( Institutional Investor ) • What to Do With a 45-Story Skyscraper and No Tenants : HSBC’s plan to leave its Canary Wharf tower for a smaller site shows the global challenges ahead in repurposing unwanted office space for a post-pandemic world. ( Citylab ) see al

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Tuesday links: over-optimized content

Abnormal Returns

Strategy How (and where) to hold cash in your portfolio. (morningstar.com) For alternatives, Is illiquidity a feature or a bug? (savantwealth.com) Don't underestimate how weird the world can be. (mr-stingy.com) Crypto Grayscale won a victory against the SEC raising the prospects of a spot Bitcoin ETF. (blockworks.co) The entire crypto space jumped on the news.

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IRS Warns of Rampant Fraud Scams and Identity Theft

Wealth Management

The agency urges maintaining robust security measures to protect clients.

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down 6% YoY; New Listings Down 8% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Hannah Jones: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Aug 26, 2023 • Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 5.9%. This past week marked the 10th consecutive decline in the number of homes actively for sale compared to the prior year, however the gap narrowed for the fourth week in a row. • New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale

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Your Accounting Expertise Will Only Get You So Far: What Really Matters

Speaker: Victor C. Barnes, CPA, MBA

In the climb from contributor to leader, the rules quietly change. If you’re aiming for the summit, the air gets thinner—and what got you here won’t be enough to get you to the top (a concept first popularized by Marshall Goldsmith in his book What Got You Here Won’t Get You There ). What made you successful early in your finance career—technical accuracy, sharp analysis, flawless execution—won’t be what carries you to the next level.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (September 2-3)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court ruled that the state's fiduciary rule for broker-dealers can stand, potentially opening the door for other states to impose similar standards that exceed the requirements of the Securities and Exchange Commission's Regulation Best Interest rule.

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Personal finance links: accumulation vs. decumulation

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Peter Lazaroff talks with Tyler Olsen about strategically paying down student debt. (peterlazaroff.com) Captain FI talks financial independence with Jonathan Clements. (captainfi.com) Frazer Rice talks longevity and aging with Phil Pearlman of the Pearl Institute. (open.spotify.com) Morgan Housel on the difference between intelligence and smarts.

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Focus Closes on Sale to CD&R in Take-Private Deal

Wealth Management

Two private equity players take Focus private in an all-cash deal; the firm’s stock has ceased trading on the NASDAQ.

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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.6% below recent peak

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.6% below recent peak Excerpt: It has been over 17 years since the bubble peak. In the June Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006.

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How To Overcome Change Fatigue In Finance With Neuroscience-Backed Strategies

Speaker: Kim Beynon, CPA, CGMA, PMP

The most overlooked, yet most critical, element of transformation is preparing people for change. Automation and AI aren't just technical upgrades, they’re cultural shifts which can challenge identities. That’s why change management isn’t a side project—it’s the foundation. In finance, where precision and process rule, navigating change can feel especially disruptive.

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Crafting More Equitable Advisor Non-Solicit Agreements With The ACRES Agreement

Nerd's Eye View

Non-compete agreements (where a company prohibits an employee from working for competitors, at least for a certain period of time) are often used to help companies protect their investment in the employee (e.g., the time and money spent training the employee) as well as preventing the employee from taking the company's best practices to a new job at a competitor.

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Wednesday links: opening the vault

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Why the low interest rate era has come to an end. (ft.com) Generating alpha is more than just stock selection. (flyoverstocks.com) Who is to blame for the behavior gap? (ritholtz.com) ETFs 2023 is on track for a record number of ETF closures. (wsj.com) The SEC's logic in the Grayscale case was flawed. (ft.com) Economy The labor market is not all that tight.

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RIA Roundup: Venerable Holdings to Create RIA

Wealth Management

Two new players enter the RIA space; Baird adds a bank team with half a billion in assets; and Creative Planning and Focus Financial both make big announcements.

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Fannie Mae Single-Family Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Lowest since 2002

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie Mae Single-Family Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Lowest since 2002 Brief excerpt: Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 0.54% in July from 0.55% in June. The serious delinquency rate is down year-over-year from 0.76% in July 2022. This is below the pre-pandemic low of 0.65% and the lowest rate since 2002.

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You upgrade everything else. Why not your close process?

You wouldn’t keep using a 2009 flip phone - so why settle for outdated close processes? It’s time for an upgrade. SkyStem's Guide to Month-End Close Software walks you through what today’s best tools can do (and what your team shouldn’t have to deal with anymore). Get smart, fast, and a whole lot less stressed when it’s time to close the books.

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TD Ameritrade To Schwab Conversion Tips For Financial Advisors

Nerd's Eye View

The announcement of the merger between Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade in November 2019 kicked off a marathon of preparation for advisory firms to transition their clients on the TD Ameritrade custodial platform to Schwab. And with the final conversion of clients scheduled to take place over the upcoming Labor Day weekend of 2023, the marathon is approaching its final sprint toward the finish line.

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MiB: Greg Davis, CIO Vanguard

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Vanguard’s chief investment officer Greg Davis. He is responsible for the oversight of approximately $7 trillion managed by Vanguard fixed income, equity index, and quantitative equity groups. Davis also serves as a member of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee of the US Treasury Department. He has more than 25 years of investment management experience.

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Incorporating Life Settlements into Your Client Strategy

Wealth Management

A policy that performs justifies the premium costs and liquidity constraints. Unfortunately, it's all too common for life insurance to use and hold value that's better deployed elsewhere.

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Adviser links: motivational interviewing

Abnormal Returns

Charles Schwab Charles Schwab ($SCHW) is rebranding TDA's video news efforts. (riabiz.com) Charles Schwab ($SCHW) is planning more job cuts due to the TDA integration. (investmentnews.com) Pro bono planning Does financial planning have a pro bono problem? (mywealthplanners.com) The CFP Board wants to encourage pro bono planning. (investmentnews.com) Practice management How choosing an advisory niche makes for better marketing efforts.

CFP
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2025 Industry Index: How Top Advisors Are Scaling Smarter (and Faster) This Year

Where are top advisors focusing in 2025? AcquireUp’s 2025 Industry Index reveals it all. Based on insights from 200+ financial professionals nationwide, discover why 74% say seminars and referrals deliver the best ROI, how automation is helping advisors scale faster, and why only 8% are tapping into niche marketing (a major growth opportunity!). Whether you're refining your client acquisition strategy or scaling your practice, this report gives you the real-world data, benchmarks, and action ste

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#FA Success Ep 348: Building Your Own Planning Spreadsheets To Show Clients What They Need To See, With Jeff Jones

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 348th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Jeff Jones. Jeff is the Owner and Founder of Cypress Financial Planning, an independent RIA based in Haddon Heights, New Jersey, that oversees $275 million in assets under management for 380 client households. What's unique about Jeff, though, is how he built his own financial planning spreadsheets in Excel, and has developed coding and integrations that automatically populate into a Power

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Housing August 28th Weekly Update: Inventory increased 1.3% Week-over-week; Down 9.3% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.3% week-over-week. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of August 25th, inventory was at 503 thousand (7-day average), compared to 497 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is up 2.5%. And inventory is up 24.1% from the seasonal bottom 19 weeks ago.

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The Private Equity Playbook

Wealth Management

Private equity players open up about challenges and opportunities in the wealth management space.

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Monday links: a newsletter problem

Abnormal Returns

Companies Google ($GOOGL) has dominated seemingly forever. The cracks are showing. (theverge.com) Nvidia's ($NVDA) near term looks bright. The longer term is open to interpretation. (stratechery.com) How income affects Apple ($AAPL) services adoption. (asymco.com) Startups A look at Klayvio's S-1. (tomtunguz.com) The startup slowdown is translating into lower equity comp.

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The New Way Remote Finance Teams Are Protecting Accuracy And Building Resilience In A Cyber-Threatened World

Speaker: Cheryl J. Muldrew-McMurtry

Remote finance teams are rewriting how the back-office runs—and attackers are taking notes. Disconnected workflows, process blind spots, and rising cyber threats have become more than just “growing pains”. They’re now liabilities. The challenge isn’t just team distribution, but building resilient systems that protect accuracy, control, and speed across every transaction and touchpoint.